Major Hurricane Irene

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 97L has developed a closed LLC and has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Irene, with an intensity of 45kts. Irene has developed some impressive central convection with developing banding features. As Iceberg said in the invest thread, the models are quite keen on making Irene a strong hurricane, but this very much depends on track and potential intereaction with Hispaniola. Conditions are favourable for development with very warm sea temperatures, and low shear. Irene is of much concern to the eastern Caribbean and potentially Florida in the long term. One to watch!

I cannot believe we are already on the 'I' storm! This is a whole month before the 'I' storm of last year, which was considered a very active year. Will we need to use the Greek Alphabet for the 2nd time I wonder. And on the same list of names as the fateful 2005 season.

And will Irene finally be the one to become a hurricane?

[Paranoid]

We've been quite fortunate so far, a lot of storms but they've all been weak. The models seem quite keen on Irene becoming a Hurricane so this may worry those in the Caribbean and the Gulf.

[mezzacyclone]

Incredible how the convection flared up in the space of a couple of hrs around 57W 16N/around 300 mile due east of the tip of Guadeloupe.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[Cookie]

[Robbie Garrett]

First one to Hit the mainland in since how long?? 2 years? Irene looks set to hit Florida according to NOAA NHC.

[Iceberg]

Sorry for the length of post, but quite a bit of speculation to cover for an initial post.

We have Irene, concerningly quickly than expected with 45kts winds (very strong for a system that has only just devloped an LLCC).

On IR she looks big....very big....her inflow and outflow are extraordinary for a new system and she is drawing moisture from an area the size of the whole caribbean.

I wouldn't like to estimate her current strength as the centre seems to be moving about still NHC have issued a mid advisory that it has re-formed further north.

One thing to note on the strengthen is that ALL major models predict this to be a hurricane within 24 hrs. It seems a bit soon for me but believable.

So the things we really know are she's big and she's likely to be a hurricane soon.

Moving on to intensity longer time frame, GFS, GFDL and HWRF all take Irene to CAT 4 or strong CAT 4, some of the GF models as seen below take her to almost CAT 5 which is not out of the question given the ocean heat content.

The biggest unknown (which also effects intensity) is Irene's path.

I've drawn on one of the diagrams below with tracks where the NHC new centre is and also where I think it might be, both further north than any model currently has progged. If the models don't get the starting point right then I don't have much faith in them longer term.

Also we have GFS, HWRF going for a Florida atlantic coast hit. UKMET, GFDL going for a mid GOM entry. As the NHC have said there is considerable uncertainty wrt path and intensity.

Land interaction: Irene is a large system these large system survive land interaction much much better than smaller systems, the eye wall will get disturbed but she won't get starved so re-intensification is highly likely once over water again.

So as a prediction: I think Irene will largely miss Cuba, She will be a CAT 4 or above storm and will be the first major hit on the US for a few years. The islands will be trouble(with probable loss of life) from flooding if nothing else.

[Iceberg]

NHC have just updated and moved it further north. NOAA current conditions from Guadeloupe indicate that west winds and now south west winds with pressure of 1006mb have been observed. i.e the centre must have travelled just to the north of here and that the system is probably just sub 1006mb.

A little dry air, but nothing concerning IMO, the 12Z's should have a better handle on things.

[mezzacyclone]

Currently lashing the Northern Leeward Islands and just about slap bang over the NE tip of Les Abymes.

The dry air you mention IceB can be seen on some of the sat shots:

hence no major development for the 12 hrs or so following the 07:45 timeshot.?

With waters just under 29°C though it wont be long before Florida will be deeply concerned.

BTW: Some of the projections have not updated the symbols from a TS or low cat 1 status yet,

this has to eventually be between a 3,4 or possible 5 surely.

[mezzacyclone]

Recon aircraft taxi-ing for launch,,,, (midday BST)

can anyone please decode the HDBO, RECCO etc. data and paste here?

I`m off out but can still view but real difficult to retrieve and decipher on a smartfone?

[Iceberg]

HWRF concerningly takes Irene to a CAT 5 and then puts 100mph+ winds all the way up the east coast of Florida.

GFS has a very similar scenario. GFDL 06Z moves much further west and a Florida/S.Carolina hit looks 70-80% certain now.

Recon flying but nothing interesting to report yet.

Edited August 21, 2011 by Iceberg

[weatherobsuk]

Going from Emily's track record i'm somewhat pessimistic about the models outlier after this systems track once passing Haiti. However if things still stand on track by Weds afternoon i'll be on the phone to the airlines finding what the cheapest deal to midstate FL will be.

[Cookie]

Hurricane Watches Issued

[cold&cloudy]

Track is very uncertain at this point. Either Florida takes a direct hit or gets sideswiped. The GA/Carolina coastline should really keep an eye on this. If the storm does track along the US east coast, it could be a major flooding event, especially in the NJ/NY area.

[Cookie]

[Iceberg]

Not had much chance to post this afternoon so I've totally missed the recon, but the highlight looked to have been pressure of 999mb and the general WNW track.

She is really tightening up despite the lack of central convection and is still obviously seeing pressure drops, Irene is not far of a Hurricane now IMO.

Track is looking very interesting with the 12Z models general agreement on a northward shift(unsurprisingly) with Irene now passing on the northern edge of DR and missing Cuba. This means much longer over water and a hit as it follows the ridge up skirting Florida and into the Carolinas. With the Ridge in place it will hit somewhere.

Due to the sea track again good agreement on a Major hurricane forming.

NHC track is now to the south of model guidance and so should get upgrade at 10pm.

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Nice video Cookie, I feel there will be more scenes like this over the coming week.

[Iceberg]

The 00Z models make grim viewing for the US, yesterdays models didn't seem to be an outlier, HWRF makes a CAT 5 landfall again in S.Carolina after taking out the east coast of Florida.

GFDL a CAT 4 up the west side of Florida, GFS the same as HWRF and ECM a Major that takes out the west coast of the US from the Keys to New York.

The path pretty much keeps her over sea now, (I think she's left PR now).

Anyway very soon Hurricane Irene.

[Coast]

San Juan - Tropical Storm Irene strengthened as it barrelled across the Caribbean toward Puerto Rico on Sunday on a course that could take it to Florida later in the week. Irene, the ninth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, could strengthen into a hurricane before hitting Puerto Rico early on Monday, forecasters at the US National Hurricane Centre said.

It would be the first hurricane of the busy - but so far not destructive - 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. "We have to take this seriously," Puerto Rico Governor Luis Fortuno said on Sunday evening. At 23:00, local time, Irene's top winds had strengthened to 110km/h, up from 85km/h earlier in the day. That was just under the 119km/h threshold to become a hurricane. Irene was moving west-northwest. Its centre was about 85km southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, but Irene was a large storm and conditions had begun to deteriorate over the eastern part of the island, the forecasters said.

Shopping ban lifted

The storm was expected to weaken on Monday as it moved over the Dominican Republic, then strengthen again on Tuesday as it emerged over water and moved toward the Bahamas. Irene pelted the Leeward Islands with heavy rain and squalls as it crossed from the Atlantic Ocean into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Hurricane watches and warnings were in effect in the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the central Bahamas. Tropical storm watches and warnings were in effect for the Virgin Islands, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas.

The storm sprang to life on Saturday night. Puerto Rico lifted a ban on Sunday morning shopping, allowing stores to open so residents could stock up on canned food, bottled water and other necessities. Prices were frozen and alcohol sales were halted until after the storm passes. Schools and government offices were closed for Monday in the US territory of 3.9 million people. Shelters were opened but few people had sought refuge in them by nightfall. Fortuno rushed back to Puerto Rico on Sunday from North Carolina, where he was named chairperson of the Southern Governors Association. He expressed concern that the storm's erratic path was leading people to ignore its potential harm.

Abnormal waves

He urged residents in flood zones to go quickly to government storm shelters and those with secure homes to stay inside and off the roads. The island was expected to get up to 25cm of rain, making driving hazardous. "This could put your life in danger," Fortuno said. In the Dominican Republic, authorities warned of abnormal waves up to 4.5m high. Weeks of heavy rainfall have already caused deadly flooding in the Dominican Republic and authorities said they may issue evacuation orders for vulnerable areas on Monday.

Residents of the southeastern United States were urged to monitor Irene's progress as the storm headed their way. Computer forecast models showed Irene moving northwest over the Dominican Republic and then heading toward the Florida peninsula. Depending on its eventual path and possible turns, Irene might still pose a threat to US oil and gas installations in the Gulf of Mexico, but forecasters say it is too early to predict with certitude.

Mudslides, flooding

An early northward turn would bring it near the Georgia-South Carolina coast late in the week but a later turn could take it over central Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Harvey hit Belize in Central America on Saturday and weakened to a tropical depression as it moved inland. It crossed into Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Sunday and forecasters said it could briefly strengthen back into a tropical storm before hitting the southern coast of Mexico. Mudslides and flooding could affect agricultural output in Central America, but this year's coffee and sugar harvests are largely complete.

http://www.news24.co...rength-20110822

Tropical Storm Irene began moving across Puerto Rico early today, pounding the US Caribbean territory with torrential rains and winds as forecasters warned it could turn into a hurricane. The fast-changing storm earlier downed trees and caused widespread power cuts in the US Virgin Islands as it churned just miles from St Croix, said Christine Lett, spokeswoman for the territory's emergency management agency.

Forecasters earlier said Irene was likely to pass south of Puerto Rico, but the storm shifted north and was passing directly over the island, said Krizia Negron, a meteorologist with the US National Weather Service in San Juan as the first 70mph (110kph) winds began lashing the territory. "The main threat from the winds is just starting and it's going to continue through the night," she said. Early today, the storm was moving west-northwest at roughly 15mph (24kph) with gusts higher than 70mph (110kph). Irene's centre was about 10 miles (16km) southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

After moving over Puerto Rico, Irene was expected to approach Hispaniola, the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Nearly 600,000 people in Haiti are still without shelter after last year's earthquake. In San Juan, dozens of people sought emergency shelter ahead of Irene, which is expected to dump up to 10in (25cm) of rain in Puerto Rico.

Maria Antonia Ordonez, 59, said she secured the shutters of her house in historic Old San Juan after inviting neighbours over for dinner and wine. "You can hear the wind, the gusts are relentless," she said. "I can't see anything because I've closed everything." Puerto Rico's main airport was swamped with people, the usual Sunday crowds combined with people rushing to get off the island before the storm or stranded because flights to a number of other islands had been cancelled. There were long lines at check-in counters and at the airport hotel.

Strong winds and rain were battering the outlying Puerto Rican islands of Culebra and Vieques, where 150 tourists were evacuated, according to Governor Luis Fortuno. At least 120,000 people were without power and another 13,000 without water as the storm approached. All schools and nearly all government offices in Puerto Rico would remain closed today, Mr Fortuno said.

Daniel Moore, 43, said he woke up early yesterday to clean the gutters and secure items lying around his house in the southern coastal town of Guayama. He went to bed early to take advantage of the still-working air conditioning. "A lot of times the lights go out and then I can't sleep well," he said. Authorities advised people to stay away from the ocean because Irene could bring a dangerous storm surge to the coast. "I strongly recommend that swimmers and recreational boaters avoid the ocean and that the general public stay away from shoreline rocks until the tropical storm passes and weather and surf conditions normalise," said Captain Drew Pearson, a US Coast Guard commander.

In the US Virgin Islands, Governor John deJongh declared a state of emergency in order to impose storm curfews. "We've got what appears to be a direct hit on St Croix," said governor's spokesman Jean Greaux, referring to the largest and poorest of the US Virgin Islands. Emergency shelters were opened on St Croix, where the port was closed. The Hovensa LLC refinery on St Croix also closed its port because of the storm but operations remained normal at the refinery, one of the largest in the Western Hemisphere, said spokesman Steve Strahan.

The hurricane centre said the main impediment to the storm's progress over the next couple of days will be interaction with land. If Irene passes over Hispaniola's mountains or over parts of eastern Cuba, the storm could weaken more than currently expected. "However, if the system ends up moving to the north of both of those land masses it could strengthen more than expected," said forecaster Richard Pasch.

In the Dominican Republic, officials assured residents they had food available for 1.5 million people if needed. Also, soldiers and emergency management crews evacuated dozens of residents from high-risk areas along the southern coast. "We have taken all precautions," presidential spokesman Rafael Nunez said. Many stores in the capital of Santo Domingo closed yesterday even as people bought last-minute items like torches.

The hurricane centre's current forecast has Irene hitting southern Florida as a hurricane by Thursday. Sustained winds must reach 74mph (119kph) for the storm to be classified as a hurricane.

http://www.independe...co-2341855.html

http://iwitness.weat...574/148597.html

[knocker]

WTNT34 KNHC 220657

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6B

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

300 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO JUST BELOW

HURRICANE STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.3N 66.1W

ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO

ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE

HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH

COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA

* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER

EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO

WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER

* HAITI

* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS

LOCATED BY FAA DOPPLER RADAR TO BE INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR

LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH... 24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL

DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF

IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...AND

MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATE THAT

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND

IRENE COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE OVER PUERTO RICO DURING

THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON

AND TONIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTER THE

CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM

FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A SUSTAINED WIND

OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 76 MPH...122 KM/H...WAS REPORTED

ON VIEQUES ISLAND PUERTO RICO...AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH...67

KM/H WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H...WAS REPORTED AT SAN JUAN

PUERTO RICO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VIRGIN

ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND WILL

CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND

CULEBRA THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS

ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE

TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL

BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE

CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS

AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES

ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH

FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2

TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN

THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...

THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART/BERG

Sat and PUERTO RICO radar.

[Iceberg]

We now have Hurricane Irene, thanks to the 10am NHC update with winds of 65kts.

The first of the Season...

"IRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURSDESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTORICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAATERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. ALSO...LARGE PATCHES OF DOPPLERVELOCITY VALUES AS HIGH AS 75-82 KT AT 1000-1500 FT AND 85-91 KT AT 2000-3000 FT HAVE BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THECENTER OVER WATER FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WHICH EQUATES TO AT LEAST65-KT SURFACE WINDS. SOME DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 72 KT HAVEALSO BEEN DETECTED AT 500-600 FT OVER WATER. AS A RESULT OF THESEDATA...IRENE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON."

NHC now also forecast Irene to Hit Florida as a Major Cat 3 Hurricane, Maybe still conservative but it should at least get peoples attention.

Edited August 22, 2011 by Iceberg

[Somerset Squall]

The track keeps shifting a little further north with time, if any further shifts north occur, Irene will miss northern Hispaniola and strengthen rapidly. Even on the current track with Irene's large size, Hispaniola will only slow the intensification for a short time. It's looking increasingly likely that Irene will be making landfall on the US as a major hurricane (cat 3 or above).

[mezzacyclone]

yup! excellent writeup from NHC "stewart"

It`s all about the Upper level ridge & trough now but still huge speculation regarding path?

coast hugger? >>>

[Iceberg]

A coast hugger is certainly what ECM shows as well with a 925mb low.

Doppler shows the eye moving away from PR now, partially open in the SE, but recon should be interesting.

Edited August 22, 2011 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

Interesting update form NHC, major damage to PR and winds surprisingly strong, stronger than thought....

HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTEDNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011550 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011CORRECTED TIME IN DATE/STIME HEADERPRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINEDAMAGE HAS OCCURRED ON PUERTO RICO...AND MORE THAN 800 THOUSANDHOMES ARE WITHOUT POWER ON THE ISLAND. ALSO...FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES WINDS TO NEAR MAJORHURRICANE STRENGTH ARE NOW OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OFTHE INTERIOR MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO.$$FORECASTER STEWART

very unusual for an update barely 50mins after their main update.

Edited August 22, 2011 by Iceberg