Major Hurricane Irene

[Jack Wales]

Irene seems to have taken a more northwestward motion in the last couple of hours, which is good news for the Dominican north coast. Here is the link to the weather station in Cabarete which should make some interesting readings in the next few hours...

http://www.kaoba.com/meteo.html

[Paranoid]

Irene now up to Cat 2 (not at all surprising from those cloud top temperatures), another advisory is coming out in about half an hour or so. The NHC have this to say for the moment.

HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL092011750 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATETHAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANEWITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH...155 KM/H. DETAILS WILLFOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 815 PM AST...0015 UTC.

SUMMARY OF 750 PM AST...2350 UTC...

INFORMATION--------------------------------------------------LOCATION...19.7N 68.7WABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$FORECASTER BRENNAN

Edited August 22, 2011 by Paranoid

[Jack Wales]

Irene now up to Cat 2, 100mph, 981mb. She appears to be strengthening rapidly now.

[mezzacyclone]

that specials indicating a major `cane for tomorrow para?

Much as I`ve tried i`m not seeing any dry air and the cores still solid/strengthening due to staying offshore.

recons over again, 982mb already plotted,,,,long night?

[Jack Wales]

I think with those cloud tops and the mass sink scenario referred to by the nhc, the system could now be in the 970's. Don't bet against cat 3 by tomorrow morning.

I'll stay up until 1:30 to see the nhc update (if it's there), after that I'm off to bed!

Edited August 23, 2011 by Jack Wales

[Jack Wales]

000

WTNT34 KNHC 230025

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...FURTHER

STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.7N 68.7W

ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER

EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO

* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD

TO CABO ENGANO

* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS

LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF

IRENE WILL MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND

HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE

SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON

TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185

MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER

AIRCRAFT IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN

PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE

LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE

TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN

ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER

NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES

POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP

TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE IN

THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE

CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9

TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND

CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE

WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL

TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR

THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS

WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

Pretty much as expected but pressure remains at 981mb for now.........

[weatherobsuk]

330,000 alone live on the Bahamas. A CAT4/5 is the last thing these people need, and any storm surge nevermind wind gusts will no doubt level major population centers. Especially Nassau which itself is only 5m asl

[knocker]

WTNT34 KNHC 230546

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

200 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.1N 69.7W

ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER

EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO

* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD

TO CABO ENGANO

* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS

LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR

LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED

TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF

IRENE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI

THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE

SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON

LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO

185 MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER

AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE

NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...AND LOCALIZED

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO

OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND

CAICOS ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS

EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH

HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE

WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN

ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER

NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10

INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP

TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN

THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS

ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS

9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND

CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE

WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL

TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR

THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS

WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Edited August 23, 2011 by weather ship

[Iceberg]

Morning,

Irene looks to have gone through a mixed night to me, intensifying with the colder cloud tops, then falling apart a bit with in the impact of DR close by, then in the last hour or so getting things back together.

Two pics below, on one she has limited inflow and poor outflow to the south and west, shes also got a bit of dry air into the east.

On the second we've got the whispy outflow now much better in all quads with a solid CDO again. The inflow to the north is providing lots of moisture to keep things going.

So still a solid CAT 2 but showing the set up now for something major once she passes the island and can get a dual inflow established to the south.

Models have a bit more agreement GFS has shifted a bit west from it's 12Z where it very likely overestimted the ridge weakness, it is still though on the east side of model guidance. GFDL is still on the west side of model guidance taking Irene into Florida.

HWRF (the best model with Irene IMO) still takes a Carolina hit (yes again as a CAT 5).

Wothing noting but not giving it too much credence that GFS puts a direct hit on long beach and Hurricane winds on NY.

Given the above the cone of uncertainty is still from Miami to NY IMO.

The outflow is a good sign of the anti-cyclone building over the top of Irene now which will greatly aid development.

NHC also forecasting her to hit a CAT 4 now.

IT will be interesting to see whether the ECM has a slight shift west.

Thanks WS that 978mb pressure is a good indication that she is still in pretty good shape, Pressure readings on the recon atm are not working, except on Vortex drops.

[Iceberg]

ECM now in and has a CAT 4 N.Carolina hit, update on the GFDL as I was looking at the 18Z , the 00Z has a Carolina hit as well (CAT 4).

ECM then goes on to recurve Irene back into the NY area and gives NY and Longbeach 80-100mph winds.

The model consensus (minus GFS) is now clearly for a Carolina hit as a Major Hurricane.

[Coast]

Is Florida out of danger?

Irene's projected path still offshore

Residents and officials across Volusia and Flagler counties began preparing Monday for whatever Hurricane Irene brings later this week. While the official forecast states tropical storm-force winds are possible in the two-county area on Friday, the storm's projected path -- perilously close at 100 to 150 miles offshore -- presents a worrisome prospect for many.

Late Monday, specialists at the National Hurricane Center said Irene appears headed for a landfall in the Carolinas on Saturday.

But, forecasters at the center and the National Weather Service warned repeatedly the average margin of forecast error is about 200 miles at four days out. With the storm passing so close to Florida, a slight jog in the path could swipe the coast with much more severe conditions. While Irene pounded Puerto Rico on Monday and grew into a Category Two hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph, forecasters told local officials it was too soon to pinpoint exactly what conditions to expect here on Friday, given Irene's potential for further strengthening.

"It is a large storm to begin with in terms of size," said Scott Kelly, a senior forecaster with the weather service in Melbourne. As it intensifies, it could grow larger, with tropical conditions extending as much as 200 miles from the center. Even if the storm is a little farther off coast, Kelly said, its wind fields may be larger. During an afternoon conference call with local officials, forecasters said they couldn't yet estimate wave height or beach erosion, said Charlie Craig, director of emergency management for Volusia County. "We're watching it," Craig said. "This may be one of those nail-biters," he said, where no one will know whether the storm is "going to waffle or mature and grow bigger."

Forecasters were waiting Monday for Irene to clear the island of Hispaniola and move into open water to firm up their forecasts for the United States mainland. Local warnings and watches -- if necessary -- could be issued today, Craig said.

In preparation, local emergency officials began a measured response Monday not opening emergency operations centers, but closely monitoring the forecast and preparing to take actions today if needed. Further action is expected today if the forecast track does not shift more to the east.

"Decisions are made minute by minute," said Troy Harper, chief of Flagler County Emergency Management. "But it takes a couple of days to do this." Generally, Craig said, evacuations aren't likely if the winds are going to be tropical storm force, less than 74 mph. But if hurricane-force winds are forecast, the potential for evacuations increases.

School officials in the two counties also were monitoring the storm Monday and reviewing emergency plans, which could require turning some schools into storm shelters if severe conditions are expected. If the forecast for tropical storm-force winds holds for Friday, Craig said, school officials may decide to close schools to ensure student safety. Craig and Harper said all residents should have their personal disaster plans and kits in place. Harper compared it to preparing for a camping trip in a remote location.

"Think about how you would have to live for five days if you didn't have electricity," he said. "People often stack up on canned goods and then forget to get an old-fashioned manual can opener." The storm could wind up as just "a beach event," Harper said, but preparations are needed "just in case." They reminded residents to visit emergency management websites in both counties. Officials in local cities began preparing Monday, checking equipment and reviewing emergency plans.

If evacuations are necessary locally, both counties expect to make those announcements on Wednesday. In Volusia County, any evacuations, if necessary, would likely take place Thursday, Craig said. Irene promises to take a path similar to Hurricane Floyd, a huge hurricane that ran parallel to the Florida coast in September 1999. That event prompted thousands of worried people to evacuate voluntarily, creating statewide traffic jams. Local hoteliers said many of their guests won't make a final decision on whether to cancel reservations until after mid-week. Blaine Lansberry, vice president of marketing for the Bahama House and the Best Western Plus Aku Tiki Inn in Daytona Beach Shores, said she hadn't started getting phone calls from visitors yet.

"This time of year it's mostly Florida travelers, so they're kind of trained to wait until the last minute to make their plans," she said. The Shores Resort & Spa has waived its 72-hour cancellation policy, said Susan Keaveney, marketing manager. Only one guest had canceled and the hotel began letting group guests know that outdoor events can be moved inside. Several local universities have students on campus already with some beginning classes already and others holding freshman orientations. Officials at the universities said they expect to begin making decisions today . For example, Stetson University will decide after its emergency management team meeting today whether to stay open or send students back to their hometowns.

At Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, the meteorology department is monitoring the storm and whether there will be any tornadoes, university President John Johnson said, to determine whether to fly its 60 planes on the Daytona Beach campus to out-of-state locations. Meanwhile, boat owners started calling area marinas to check on vessels moored here, while the U.S. Coast Guard and Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission advised boat owners to secure crafts in advance. At Loggerhead Club & Marina in Daytona Beach, Harbormaster Steve Moore said he fielded calls from boat owners as far away as Canada and Europe wondering what was being done to protect their yachts and boats.

"We're walking the docks and making sure the boats are tied securely and canvas coverings are fastened securely," Moore said.

Employees at North Causeway Marine Corp. in New Smyrna Beach also began readying boats at their marina on the Indian River.

http://www.news-jour...l-offshore.html

[knocker]

12Z ECM is in for Irene and has a hit on the N.Carolina boarder as a strong large CAT 4.

GFDL has the hit on Florida as a CAT 5.

The 00z NAM has shifted it east of Florida but not by much,

[Coast]

Kate Winslet and her children were among VIP guests forced to flee Sir Richard Branson’s luxury Caribbean home after a night-time blaze ripped through the building. The multi-million-pound Great House on Necker, the Virgin tycoon’s £60million private island, was struck by lightning in the early hours of Monday when the region was battered by 90mph Hurricane Irene. Flames quickly ravaged the wood and stone mansion forcing those inside, which included Miss Winslet and her two young children, to run for their lives in their pyjamas.

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz1VpyvpSAb

[onlyME]

Irene is forecasted to become a Category 4 major hurricane when located (I think) east of Cape Canaveral.

Forecast

[mezzacyclone]

Irene is forecasted to become a Category 4 major hurricane when located (I think) east of Cape Canaveral.

Forecast

Strengthening by using the shallower 30°C+ SST`s in and around the Bahamas?

The dry wedge over DR is evident but done little to disrupt the overall form >

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/14391-5-45-23rd/

Classic "whispy" westward outflow now also >

http://rammb.cira.co...ropical/194.JPG

Next intermediate due 1pm BST,,,

[knocker]

Latest enhanced WV.

[karyo]

What a difference a day makes! A notable shift eastwards according to the models so Florida looks safe! I won't be surprised if this eastward shift continues and the entire east coast escapes in the end!

I have to say the Americans have been very lucky in the last couple of years with all major hurricanes staying out at sea!

Karyo

Edited August 23, 2011 by karyo

[knocker]

The NAM 0600z is still a bit close to Florida for comfort but hopefully okay.

[Jack Wales]

What a difference a day makes! A notable shift eastwards according to the models so Florida looks safe! I won't be surprised if this eastward shift continues and the entire east coast escapes in the end!

I have to say the Americans have been very lucky in the last couple of years with all major hurricanes staying out at sea!

Karyo

Agreed Karyo, wouldn't be surprised if this turned out to be another fish spinner, probably as a result of weaker heights over the atlantic the last few years.

The latest satellite imagery shows the eye and eyewall emerging from the dense CDO so Irene looks to be strengthening again now she is moving away from Hispaniola. This is becoming a very large hurricane with extended wind radii in all directions. For this reason I think she will only reach Cat 3 as the internal dynamics of large hurricanes make it harder for them to gain and retain Cat 4/5 status.

[karyo]

Agreed Karyo, wouldn't be surprised if this turned out to be another fish spinner, probably as a result of weaker heights over the atlantic the last few years.

Fish spinners bore me but good news for Florida.

[mezzacyclone]

Recons over again headed west over eastern DR but the HDOB`s are short of data again? namely surface winds and pressure?

Whatever influence the slight shear off the mountains of Haiti/DR had are almost if not already over and the CDO is mighty!

the ridge is slightly weaker than original but I dont feel like buying into this as a fish somehow and eastern trajections might be just a little under cautious for landfall?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm3&zoom=&time=

[Iceberg]

Personally I still don't think there much chance of Irene Fishing.

All of the trusted 06Z models take Irene towards N.Carolina a large percentage then take Irene up towards Long beach and NY City GFDL and HWRF both hit LB and NYC with 130+Kt winds which would be as bad if not worst than New Orleans.

A few models did ventrue further out east but these have come back into the main spread again.

Irene is looking a very dangerous Hurricane on visual and HWRF(the best model atm with Irene) is forecasting Irene to become one of the strongest storms on record at just over 150kts.(200mph).

Now that Irene is omving away from DR we should see what exactly she can do.

[Polar Bear]

Personally I still don't think there much chance of Irene Fishing.

All of the trusted 06Z models take Irene towards N.Carolina a large percentage then take Irene up towards Long beach and NY City GFDL and HWRF both hit LB and NYC with 130+Kt winds which would be as bad if not worst than New Orleans.

A few models did ventrue further out east but these have come back into the main spread again.

Irene is looking a very dangerous Hurricane on visual and HWRF(the best model atm with Irene) is forecasting Irene to become one of the strongest storms on record at just over 150kts.(200mph).

Now that Irene is omving away from DR we should see what exactly she can do.

Hmm I dont think it is looking good for the bahamas? How much above sea level is it?

Ah ok if highest point is 63 metres but " as some 80% of the landmass is within 5 ft (1.5 m) of mean sea level.....then below is looking to take out 80% of the landmass then...

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER

LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE

SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS

ISLANDS. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS

2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED

BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES

Edited August 23, 2011 by Polar Bear

[Radiating Dendrite]

What damage would be inflicted to NY if she did hit as a cat 3 cane? Could she hit even as a cat 4?

[Polar Bear]

http://www.camvista.com/usercams/webcam/319063601/bahamas/marsh-harbour/bahamas-rocky-bay-weather-cam-abaco-bahamas/

wind picking up then in the bahamas .....