Major Hurricane Irene

[Iceberg]

They've upped her upto 70kts though, vortex data said the eye was still open to the south(nearest land), so I assume it's only a matter of time now.

[Paranoid]

SSTs in the region still look favourable for some significant strengthening, and they're around 30c near Florida, so if Irene starts to move up the coast then she'll probably get a boost from the warmer waters there.

[Jack Wales]

Weather models are far less accurate at predicting the strength of tropical cyclones than they are with baroclynic systems, simply due to their complexity and internal dynamics. As the NHC forecast is a combination of model input and human analysis, I think they will always tend to be more on the objective side whilst some models (e.g. ships / hwrf) only have to see the hint of a tropical wave before ramping it up to a hurricane forecast!

The difficulty the NHC have with Irene is the projected land interaction with mountainous Hispaniola. If the eye passes overland, there is a distinct possibility that the system could decouple which would lead to rapid weakening. Alternatively (and as suggested in the NHC discussion notes) if the eye stays offshore then this could aid rapid intensification. I therefore think they have no option but to forecast a halfway house between the two until the track consensus becomes tighter.

I personally feel that she will stay just off shore but as we have just seen from the recon data, the continued interaction with land may inhibit significant intensification until Irene moves away from Hispaniola tomorrow. The 48 hours after this will be crucial as this will be when Irene is sitting in what appears to be an ideal environment of moisture, >30C sst’s and low wind shear.

[Iceberg]

What seems to have happened is that the land interaction helped tighten up the eye, however it also dispersed the winds over a much wider area (40-50kts go quite a way out) means a lower gradient and none of the higher winds around the eye wall.

This would indicate slow strenghtening going forward but also slow weakening a very side hurricane wind swave in 4-5 days time.

What we probably want to look for now is the clearing out of the eye and or a ring of deep convection giving the eye more strength (there is evidence of this on IR with a small band of deep cold cloud tops to the NW of the eye.

Recon from the last centre pass, indicating that pressure is now falling at 986mb and winds to 73kts in the NE eye wall.

134130 1858N 06724W 6970 03034 9866 +137 +093 347017 019 020 000 03134200 1858N 06722W 6963 03039 9860 +139 +090 339012 014 022 002 03134230 1859N 06721W 6966 03034 9860 +138 +089 330003 006 025 000 03134300 1900N 06719W 6966 03035 9862 +135 +090 157007 010 025 001 03134330 1901N 06718W 6967 03031 9864 +132 +093 160012 015 026 001 03134400 1902N 06716W 6966 03031 9860 +135 +089 155018 020 032 000 00134430 1904N 06715W 6970 03027 9863 +135 +091 154023 024 043 000 03134500 1905N 06714W 6966 03033 9866 +132 +096 153028 029 047 001 03134530 1906N 06712W 6965 03039 9879 +124 +101 154035 038 055 002 03134600 1908N 06711W 6974 03033 9898 +111 //// 151041 044 059 004 01134630 1909N 06709W 6960 03056 9912 +104 //// 161054 059 060 005 01134700 1910N 06708W 6971 03051 //// +073 //// 157065 067 061 009 01134730 1912N 06706W 6975 03051 //// +068 //// 155066 067 062 015 01134800 1913N 06705W 6956 03083 //// +070 //// 154061 062 062 016 05134830 1914N 06704W 6967 03071 //// +068 //// 148069 073 062 035 05

[Iceberg]

NHC have just updated and now have her missing DR and making landfall in S.Carolina. They are also now forecasting her to achieve Major Hurricane Status.

[weatherobsuk]

Problem is now with Irene being plotted for SC the chances of finding anywhere accomodating are remote unless you happen to have contacts in freelance or AP. FL would have been perfect given a couple of friends I know having outhouses there but alas SC it now is, the added complication is also flight prices being the holiday season and most of SC is barely above the storm-surge level. With many inlets and lakes that feed into the sea which themselves would be swelling due to the precip once Irene makes landfall (assuming SC it is.)

For a first Hurricane attempt the risk just isn't worth being cut-off from contact for a week or more, with rising floodwaters and facing those levels of winds just for half a days footage. N.Charleston to the south of the state on the seafront itself is barely 6m asl at the highest. Good luck to anyone who does venture out and makes it back in one piece.

[Iceberg]

There is the possibility of a 3 storey car park in s carolina fly to Florida and drive the hire car there ?

I admit though that for a first attempt probably a little adventurous

[Iceberg]

Recon still in and pressure now down to 984mb.

[SMU]

12 gfs the first run to take Irene away from the SE coast earlier.....

S

[Cookie]

There is the possibility of a 3 storey car park in s carolina fly to Florida and drive the hire car there ?

I admit though that for a first attempt probably a little adventurous

Id love to do this lol

An earlier image

[Iceberg]

GFS gives a double US strike as seen below, not really good news despite the NE sector staying off shore.

HWRF makes a CAT 5 again !, and puts her straight into N.Carolina.

[cold&cloudy]

What are the chances of this being a fish storm? May be similar to Betsy in 1956 if it shifts to the east.

Edited August 22, 2011 by cold&cloudy

[Cookie]

look at the SST's its going to be going through, dam thats toastie!

[Paranoid]

Looks to me that Betsy's track took it more directly North-West to begin with, missing Hispaniola quite easily. Irene's forecast to only just miss making landfall there, so i think a landfall on the east coast looks more likely than it being a fish.

[Iceberg]

What are the chances of this being a fish storm? May be similar to Betsy in 1956 if it shifts to the east.

Just had a quick look at the wetterzentral historic site and the ridge was much weaker back when that storm turned and also was sinking south. I think what I am trying to say is that the ridge moved which is what caused the re-curve, however with Irene it's a weakness in a strong mid atlantic ridge caused by a half hearted trough. GFS tends to over do these digging troughs so the weakness could well be less than forecast by GFS.

IMO this only has a small chance maybe 10% of being a fish, but this is only my opinion.

GFDL is not having such a pronounced east shift and takes it much nearer Cuba.

Sorry heres the 12Z GFDL which is still going for a south Florida hit as a Strong CAT 4, boardline CAT 5.

[Polar Bear]

http://www.stormpuls...torm-irene-2011

ooh nice site...

and if you zoom in it goes quite close to Guantanomo bay....

Edited August 22, 2011 by Polar Bear

[knocker]

The NAM is also going for Florida.

[Iceberg]

12Z ECM is in for Irene and has a hit on the N.Carolina boarder as a strong large CAT 4.

GFDL has the hit on Florida as a CAT 5.

[mezzacyclone]

Not good, increase on earlier gfdl to 165mph :o

http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs//GFDL/2011082212-irene09l//slp15.png

[AderynCoch]

Interestingly though the NHC forecast cone has been gradually trending eastwards away from Florida into South Carolina, and further away from the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola (which is probably contributing to Irene's disorganised appearance). More time spent over water will of course increase the potential intensity. The Bahamas could be in real trouble here.

Edited August 22, 2011 by AderynCoch

[Iceberg]

What we probably want to look for now is the clearing out of the eye and or a ring of deep convection giving the eye more strength (there is evidence of this on IR with a small band of deep cold cloud tops to the NW of the eye.

The eye is now almost totally surrounded by the coldest cloud tops you can get, this is a sure sign IMO of further strong intensification and a very strong eye wall.

[mezzacyclone]

those cold tops you mention definately their iceb >

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

CDO strengthening and shaping up more also within the last couple of hrs >

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-bd.html

[Somerset Squall]

Irene is looking really impressive, certainly the most organised it's ever been. That circular CDO with very cold cloud tops puts Irene in a very good position for potentially faster intensification.

[Cookie]

British Virgin Isles

from Accuweather

[Tom Lynch]

I fly to New York on Sunday it looks like I might catch a little bit of Irene. Will take my camera. Just in case and will post photos.

Bruce