Major Hurricane Irene

[Jayces]

Can someone explain how this (the fridge bit) is a tip for keeping safe on that link. I dont follow;;;

• !Turn off utilities if instructed to do so. Otherwise, turn the refrigerator thermostat to its coldest setting and keep its doors closed."
  

http://www.ibtimes.c...at-new-york.htm

I would guess that is in case there is a power cut so food isn't spoilt?

i seriously doubt nyc will be hit by a major hurricane or evacuated

Based on what?

Something you know that the all the worlds weather models don't know?

[mezzacyclone]

interesting peak flight level wind?

Time 2:45:30Z

Coordinates 22.117N 73.233W

Aircraft Static Air Pressure 750.2 mb

Aircraft Geopotential Height 7,329 feet

Extrapolated Surface Pressure 968.9 mb

D-value N/A

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) From 183° at 112 knots (From the S at ~ 128.8 mph)

Air Temp. 15.4°C(~ 59.7°F)

Dew Point 15.8°C(~ 60.4°F)

Peak (10 sec. Avg.)Flight Level Wind 114 knots(~ 131.1 mph)

SFMRPeak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind 88 knots(~ 101.2 mph)

SFMR Rain Rate 1 mm/hr(~ 0.04 in/hr) 12 mm/hr(~ 0.47 in/hr)

Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)Using Estimated Reduction Factor 86.5 knots (~ 99.4 mph)Category Two Hurricane

Peak Wind at Flight Level toEst. Surface Reduction Factor 77.2%

[Polar Bear]

I would guess that is in case there is a power cut so food isn't spoilt?

Based on what?

Something you know that the all the worlds weather models don't know?

Jayce - fridge thing...aye good call. Think you have it there. Derr me. thank you - Just seemed a bit randomn to start with. Cetainly Irene looks as though she maybe on a war path for north Carolina/Viginia and NYC. I just wonder if she will veer again tothe east. Think there was a spagetti track link but would be good to see how the model tracks over the past few days have altered.

[Iceberg]

The N.J. Office of Emergency Management indicated that evacuations in shore communities would be likely because of storm surge if Irene approaches the area at hurricane strength.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said Tuesday that the Office of Emergency Management would continue to monitor the storm's track throughout the week and implement measures if needed.

Due to the 3 day window it would have to be kicked off come end of Tomorrow. 12Z models with ECM on board between 18.30 and 19.30 BST.

[geoffw]

im willing to bet a lot of money nyc does not recieve a major hurricane or is evacuated

[Iceberg]

100kt Ft winds in the SE Quad as well now.

[Iceberg]

I think this Google map shows why their is the major concern with Irene's path.

This shows the most recent tropical model predictions (HWRF etc).

You have to remember that the storm is 300miles across and will at this point have hurricane winds 120miles across. Given this a general shift of the paths west takes Irene into Philly and Washington, A shift East takes Irene into Rhode Island and Boston.

Neither are good.

All we can really do is follow the predictions made by the best models available(this are what NHC uses).

[Paranoid]

Has Irene started to turn towards the north-west yet? If not, Irene will probably get closer to Florida and may end up taking a similar path to Donna in 1960. That would take it up nearly every state on the east coast and probably not be particularly pretty...

Edited August 24, 2011 by Paranoid

[geoffw]

show me where its predicted to hit nyc as a major hurricane?

[Iceberg]

show me where its predicted to hit nyc as a major hurricane?

Post 170 on the page overleaf taken from the GFDL latest run.

Has Irene started to turn towards the north-west yet? If not, Irene will probably get closer to Florida and may end up taking a similar path to Donna in 1960. That would take it up nearly every state on the east coast and probably not be particularly pretty...

Yep she is turning NW, but stair stepping which is pretty normal.

[geoffw]

and how many models dont show a major hitting nyc?

[Jayces]

show me where its predicted to hit nyc as a major hurricane?

Why?

Every weather / news related site on the Eastern Seaboard is talking about.

It's not like it's a secret.

It's easy for us to think it's over reactionary to evacuate New York because a hurricane 'may' hit but I don't think any New Yorkers will easily forget the images of Katrina and will no doubt take this threat very seriously.

Sure the %chance at the moment of a direct hit is low but as each hour goes by it is currently going up and not down as far as i can tell.

Still the weather is fickle and hopefully the US will be spared but at the moment the signs are not encouraging but still a day to go before we have a better idea of where and when if at all Irene will strike land.

[Iceberg]

This is an impressive set of flight winds, a growing area excess of 100kts.

133830 2226N 07320W 7523 02307 9802 +147 +151 140101 104 063 036 03133900 2225N 07322W 7495 02320 9779 +147 //// 140106 108 057 058 05133930 2224N 07323W 7507 02287 9756 +150 //// 146110 112 075 036 01134000 2223N 07325W 7531 02242 9735 +151 //// 147113 114 086 017 01134030 2222N 07326W 7516 02232 9706 +151 //// 151114 115 088 014 01134100 2221N 07327W 7523 02200 9670 +161 //// 153111 112 091 009 05134130 2220N 07329W 7496 02202 9636 +163 //// 154110 112 094 010 01

[weatherobsuk]

Nassau METAR

http://www.aviador.es/Weather/Decoded_Metar/MYNN

[BornFromTheVoid]

and how many models dont show a major hitting nyc?

Here geoffw, check them out yourself http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

[Iceberg]

and how many models dont show a major hitting nyc?

Geoff, I think it's probably best to re-read the last few pages, ALL of the major models from the 06Z suite had a hit between NYC or Long Island. The 12Z will be important as it contains the ECM as well. TBH every model run is important from now onwards as we are watching an unpredicable major hurricane, but I would'nt lose fact of the size of Irene she is not predicted to be close to Florida now, however it still has some local TS wind warnings and tide warnings. By Sunday Irene should be much bigger still.

Cheers

[Coast]

show me where its predicted to hit nyc as a major hurricane?

and how many models dont show a major hitting nyc?

Ermmmm few of them?

[Paranoid]

She's really starting to tighten up on satellite images.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Do people think she will become stronger than the predicted cat 3? Maybe even cat 5? She looks a lot better on the sat images now.

[Coast]

She's really starting to tighten up on satellite images.

Deadly, but beautiful:

Hurricane Irene could reach the New York area by Sunday night or Monday morning, and residents should prepare, officials say.

Five-day projections released by the U.S. National Hurricane Center show Irene heading for the continental United States, potentially making landfall in Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas. "This is a good time to get prepared again in your homes. There's items that you should stock up on, those that need to move or possibly be evacuated, perhaps seniors should think about having their medications refilled and having enough on hand," Nassau County, N.Y., Executive Ed Mangano told CBS New York.

Irene may intensify into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday afternoon. At that juncture, Irene will be near Andros Island in the Bahamas and about 130 miles southeast of Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Fla., with a wind speed of 115 mph.

While South Florida remains a potential landfall spot, later computer models predicted an increasing threat level for the Carolinas.

Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the hurricane center, said Irene's projected path paralleling the Florida coast meant that a slight wobble or delay in an expected northward turn could push the powerful core from offshore onto a densely developed shoreline, the Miami Herald reported. "The stakes are high because it would take just a slight shift in the track to the left to make a dramatic change in the impact of the storm in a hugely populated area,'' he said.

A low pressure trough over the eastern U.S. will potentially shift Irene's track to the east, reducing the risk of a direct landfall in densely populated South Florida but raising the risk in the Carolinas, reports said. "The storm is tracking north of all the big islands in the Caribbean now," said meteorologist Brad Panovich of WCNC-TV in Raleigh, N.C. "This is significant because now the storm will have little interference as it moves towards the U.S. This also means a shift in the track east squarely puts the Carolinas in the strike zone." "I would prepare now along the entire South and North Carolina coasts," he added. "Preparing for the worst and hoping for the best is the goal here. Get your supplies and plan together today through Wednesday. Thursday we'll know who needs to activate that plan. If you wait you'll be fighting crowds for supplies late week."

Florida residents were asked to stay prepared and ensure essential supplies including batteries, drinking water and food.

South Carolina officials also warned residents to track the storm closely. It has been six years since a hurricane hit the South Carolina coast, Joe Farmer of the State Emergency Management Division told MSNBC.

http://www.ibtimes.c...ribbean-pue.htm

[Paranoid]

I think Cat 4 is quite likely, but from the models I've looked at i think Cat 5 is an outside chance at the moment. Still, these things are pretty unpredictable and things could change quite drastically down the line. I wouldn't rule out Cat 5 entirely, but i think it is unlikely at the moment as although there's a lot of warm water around, Irene still has to deal with some dry air and moderate shear.

[stuboy]

I wonder what the chances are (and I know this is further afield) of Irene swinging back over the north Atlantic and affecting our weather in the UK? I notice one of the model tracks has this scenario plotted. I'm off to Mexico on Sunday, and am interested in how Irene might also affect our flight path as well as the weather back in the UK.

Edited August 24, 2011 by stuboy

[Coast]

The earliest the hurricane could affect the New York metro area would be Sunday night or Monday morning. While it is still too early to know what Irene’s path is, officials in the Tri-State Area are taking the storm seriously. Nassau County Executive Ed Mangano said that area residents should do the same and should not get complacent.

“This is a good time to get prepared again in your homes. There’s items that you should stock up on, those that need to move or possibly be evacuated, perhaps seniors should think about having their medications refilled and having enough on hand,” he told 1010 WINS’ Terry Sheridan. Monday will be the opening day for the U.S. Open tennis tournament in Flushing Meadows and could be affected depending on the storm’s path. Water, bread and batteries disappeared from store shelves and lines formed at the pump. From Florida to Maine, residents were told to brace for flash flooding and power outages.

Irene may intensify into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday afternoon. At that juncture, Irene will be near Andros Island in the Bahamas and about 130 miles southeast of Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Fla., with a wind speed of 115 mph. While South Florida remains a potential landfall spot, later computer models predicted an increasing threat level for the Carolinas. Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the hurricane center, said Irene's projected path paralleling the Florida coast meant that a slight wobble or delay in an expected northward turn could push the powerful core from offshore onto a densely developed shoreline, the Miami Herald reported.

"The stakes are high because it would take just a slight shift in the track to the left to make a dramatic change in the impact of the storm in a hugely populated area,'' he said. A low pressure trough over the eastern U.S. will potentially shift Irene's track to the east, reducing the risk of a direct landfall in densely populated South Florida but raising the risk in the Carolinas, reports said.

http://newyork.cbslo...e-sunday-night/

[knocker]

Just out of interest some midday plots with NHC/JTWC track (red) anf model NHC/GFDL/UKMO.

[FetchCB]

Potential impact on NYC and Long Island of a storm surge

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/nys_storm_surge_zones.pdf