Major Hurricane Irene

[Tom Lynch]

Just as an interim as the recon plane is getting into position to cover the NE quad first (and recording TS winds even just beyond the CDO). GFS 06Z is out and places the centre slightly further west than the 00Z, the eye just passes Long Beach on the eastern end now as a 115kts Cat 4, so hurricane force winds, surges etc would still cover most of New Jersey and NYC. The 00Z GFS was one of the most easter runs and get her centre away from Long Beach, so not really good new there. GFDL and HWRF should be out in the next 1hr and recon should report from the eye within about 30 mins.

Forgot to say I would be full of envy for anyone making plans (got reading this weekend so can't).

I have made plans which unusually didn't cater for storm chashing however it would look like I might have no choice in the matter. I am due to arrive New York 12.15 on Sunday, Train to Boston on Tuesday and car to Cape Cod on Thursday. What chances of things going to plan I wonder.

Tom

Wow 65Kt flight winds on the NE edge of the CDO that I didn't expect.

Will be tracking this from the air. Fly back from Phoenix on Sunday and should be bang over the New York area Sunday, will have Camera with me in the Cabin of the BA Aircraft. Might even get a little bump on the Jet Stream and get back early - Lol

Paul

Would you Adam and Eve it. I am due to land in New York 12.15 on Sunday spend two nights , travel to Boston by train on Tuesday spend two nights in Boston and then rental car to Cape Cod. I am not even flipping storm chasing.

My wife is not amused in any way shape or form.

Will have my camera.

In

[Coopsy]

Hmm unless the bulidngs have been structurally designed to cope with these winds (hurricane) I suspect some will struggle. A north easterly will have a far less load on the structure than the sustained winds and forces from a hurricane. These forces will be greater over a longer period of time; giving rise to potential failure in the structure.

Echo your thoughts on the storm surge and I really do hope people take heed of warnings and make themselves get to safe place....not stay and ride it out when they are in a threatened area...

You make a valid point about the duration of the max sustained winds

Although potentially dangerous and foolhardy, how exciting would it be to watch the storms approach/arrival/departure from a vantage point within a skycraper with 360o views.

[Polar Bear]

You make a valid point about the duration of the max sustained winds

Although potentially dangerous and foolhardy, how exciting would it be to watch the storms approach/arrival/departure from a vantage point within a skycraper with 360o views.

Vantage point - absolutely..flipping heck phenominal...

btw do you reckon anypne will have any sneak previews on the 10pm advisory? I am waiting up specifically!

Paul

Would you Adam and Eve it. I am due to land in New York 12.15 on Sunday spend two nights , travel to Boston by train on Tuesday spend two nights in Boston and then rental car to Cape Cod. I am not even flipping storm chasing.

My wife is not amused in any way shape or form.

Will have my camera.

In

that is if they let you land then? ...dont say that to the wife though until you are at the airport...

hope you have a great trip regardless.

PB

Reuters have just published this http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/24/storm-newyork-idUSN1E77N0DI20110824 a couple of mins ago

[Jayces]

http://twitpic.com/6aphlb

[mezzacyclone]

adv 18 has just gone out for those interested?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/242052.shtml

NOAA recon already over reporting, AF plane 22:15 bst

[Polar Bear]

adv 18 has just gone out for those interested?

http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/242052.shtml

NOAA recon already over reporting, AF plane 22:15 bst

thanks mc

yep saw that and it seems that bahamas are getting a hard battering

what you mean already over reporting? ..do you mean they are up there again?

[mezzacyclone]

what you mean already over reporting? ..do you mean they are up there again?

Yes, NOAA planes currently 15k feet headed SW las loc. 26.600N 79.167W, with nothing of real interest to report just yet.

the AF craft is scheduled for take off any minute,,,

[Cookie]

I live in New Jersey so I'll keep you updated if the storm has significant impacts.

keep us updated and stay safe!

[Cookie]

[Chris D]

Latest model guidance very tightly packed on the 18z runs, still suggesting landfall just E of NYC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/

[peterf]

cookie why the blues on the image? is that showing shallow water.

[Paranoid]

I think it's coral reefs off the coast of the Bahamas.

[mezzacyclone]

cookie why the blues on the image? is that showing shallow water.

Yes, from the NASA earth observatory site images

[peterf]

cheers folks just watched the whole video,its huge.

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?collection_id=14555&media_id=108144931

[mezzacyclone]

The 4 engine lockheed orion NOAA plane has had to abort due to engine difficulties right on the edge and RTB.

AF302 however still going ahead with no issues for recons,,,

[Chris D]

Some good video on Accuweather for coverage of this storm:

http://www.accuweather.com/video/90659509001/irene-eyes-carolinas-and-mid-a.asp

[Cookie]

Latest image!

600 miles across!

[mezzacyclone]

very close over centre @ 23.383N 75.000W with a low of 951.8mb

deeper than NHC 18a adv at 954mb.

Also dubious as to wether or not an EWRC is in effect as some of the loops look flaky structure-wise?

Over 75°west marker and still headed NW?

Although shes big enough to make her own way maybe the steering layers are putting a slight westward focus back?

wow > 23.517N 75.100W has a 949.9mb reading?

also deeply worrying with the 18z HWRF showing cape hatteras landfall >

http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/3444/irene09l2011082418nest.png

[Paranoid]

I was thinking an EWRC might be occurring, the eye wasn't visible on the last few frames of the sat loop, and the NHC had noted a high possibility of a cycle occurring.

[mezzacyclone]

,,,,well that means intensification once it gone through dont it P but in fear of being a pessimist I dont like saying that the latest models do not look good for eastern seaboard folk at all and a nightmare scenario for Manhattan/LI has recently become just that little bit more plausible with the latest mods?

btw: last dropsonde indicates a concentric eye shape (inner AND outer eye) @ 23°27'N 75°02'W

Edited August 25, 2011 by mezzacyclone

[knocker]

Advisory 19

WTNT34 KNHC 250255

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 19

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

1100 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...HURRICANE IRENE DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN

BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.8N 75.4W

ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ESE OF NASSAU

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES

WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS

EARLY THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. IRENE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED ON

THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL CONTINUE

TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS

AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY

DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR

HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 952

MB...28.11 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF

THE SOUTHEASTERN AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY

BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...REACHING HURRICANE

FORCE BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS

MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS.

NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND

DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6

TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL

BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING THE MAXIMUM

STORM TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF

THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE

SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT

CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[knocker]

Just out of interest a current observation for Georgetown.

2011.08.25 0459 UTC Wind from the SW (230 degrees) at 45 MPH (39 KT) gusting to 68 MPH (59 KT) Visibility 2 mile(s) Weather Light rain Precipitation last hour 0.14 inches Pressure (altimeter) 28.93 in. Hg (979 hPa)

[Iceberg]

Morning, looks like Irene underwent an EWRC and completed it successfully. The strongest winds are out at the 960-970 area but the pressure is dropping quite fast near the centre to 947.3mb now, the inner eye wall hasn't got the stronger winds yet but it's only a matter of time, hurricane force winds could well spread 100 miles from the centre of Irene come 48 hrs time.

050800 2402N 07550W 6963 02712 9473 +166 +145 334013 014 018 001 03050830 2400N 07551W 6973 02707 9479 +167 +150 314023 027 027 002 00050900 2359N 07552W 6969 02727 9499 +165 +157 302036 042 /// /// 03050930 2357N 07551W 6965 02743 9504 +170 +151 284047 052 045 001 03051000 2356N 07549W 6960 02762 9519 +170 +135 272058 062 052 002 03051030 2354N 07548W 6968 02771 9559 +152 +118 263064 067 055 003 03051100 2353N 07546W 6963 02792 9586 +146 +109 252063 063 056 004 00051130 2352N 07545W 6965 02808 9611 +137 +125 243065 067 059 003 03051200 2350N 07543W 6969 02819 9629 +132 //// 239066 067 057 003 01051230 2349N 07542W 6970 02831 9647 +132 +125 235067 068 056 002 03051300 2348N 07540W 6967 02848 9673 +122 +121 229069 070 056 001 03051330 2347N 07539W 6969 02855 9682 +123 +120 231068 069 056 001 03051400 2346N 07538W 6972 02862 9686 +129 +121 229067 068 060 002 03051430 2345N 07536W 6961 02882 9702 +122 //// 226068 071 064 002 05051500 2343N 07535W 6967 02884 9706 +128 +122 221073 073 067 004 03051530 2342N 07534W 6966 02895 9718 +125 +119 226076 079 069 004 00051600 2341N 07532W 6963 02907 9743 +112 //// 227087 089 068 004 01051630 2340N 07531W 6969 02908 9760 +107 //// 223093 093 067 005 05051700 2339N 07530W 6967 02922 9777 +103 //// 221092 093 066 006 01051730 2338N 07529W 6970 02928 9788 +102 //// 221091 092 065 002 05

Edited August 25, 2011 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

I think a piecemeal update from me.

GFS has shifted even further west from the 12Z run and instead of hitting the far east of long island hit NYC smack on.

HWRF hits long island in the middle.

Both models now have direct landfall hit on N.Carolina.

[Polar Bear]

http://www.ibtimes.c...oney-island.htm

Well NYC are getting ready although I think looking at the models so far I wonder if this is a little short sighted. ....I suppose it is not to creat panic...so I hope their emergency plans cover a cat 2 or cat 3 worse case case scenario.....not just a cat 1..I know it mat downgrade but even so..

"The sense is that we're going to be facing a strong tropical storm with winds of 40 to 60 mph," said Emergency Management Commissioner Joseph F. Bruno

Bruno added that the city's agencies were preparing for a "worst-case scenario" of a Category 1 hurricane with winds surpassing 72 mph and waters surging dangerously in low-lying areas, the Associated Press reported. With five hospitals and nursing homes in the area, officials were readying to possibly evacuate the most frail and needy"

Heres some reports on what some parts of bahamas been through: http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/08/25/hurricane-irene-bahamas-us.html

Edited August 25, 2011 by Polar Bear