Major Hurricane Irene

[weatherobsuk]

An increasing risk for NYC if Irene maintains the CAT2 status shown on the models coming into the City. Wave Heights & swell Models aren't looking too promising with 11m surge along that part of the coast. Manhattan Island incidentally is only 33ft (10m) at its highest above sea level.

[Iceberg]

Just as an interim as the recon plane is getting into position to cover the NE quad first (and recording TS winds even just beyond the CDO). GFS 06Z is out and places the centre slightly further west than the 00Z, the eye just passes Long Beach on the eastern end now as a 115kts Cat 4, so hurricane force winds, surges etc would still cover most of New Jersey and NYC. The 00Z GFS was one of the most easter runs and get her centre away from Long Beach, so not really good new there. GFDL and HWRF should be out in the next 1hr and recon should report from the eye within about 30 mins.

Forgot to say I would be full of envy for anyone making plans (got reading this weekend so can't).

Wow 65Kt flight winds on the NE edge of the CDO that I didn't expect.

Edited August 24, 2011 by Iceberg

[mezzacyclone]

Well the Atlantic ridge looks to be going nowhere in particular and once the trough clears out from the great lakes/NE states tomorrow then pressure looks relatively high in Irene`s path as a 2nd ridge builds from the West over Quebec which in turn has stopped the Easterly path trends we have seen of late?

Makes all the difference who yields (if any) in regards to a head slam into LI, Con. Mass & NH or turn to Cape cod and NS having some meaty extra-tropical disturbance as Irene busts the gap.

http://www.eldoradoc...mb-heights.html

woops, recons here again, this will be of huge interest,,,,,,

957mb iceB? (NOAA eyewall sonde)

Edited August 24, 2011 by mezzacyclone

[knocker]

Just as an interim as the recon plane is getting into position to cover the NE quad first (and recording TS winds even just beyond the CDO). GFS 06Z is out and places the centre slightly further west than the 00Z, the eye just passes Long Beach on the eastern end now as a 115kts Cat 4, so hurricane force winds, surges etc would still cover most of New Jersey and NYC. The 00Z GFS was one of the most easter runs and get her centre away from Long Beach, so not really good new there. GFDL and HWRF should be out in the next 1hr and recon should report from the eye within about 30 mins.

Forgot to say I would be full of envy for anyone making plans (got reading this weekend so can't).

Wow 65Kt flight winds on the NE edge of the CDO that I didn't expect.

The 06z NAM put it smack on the north NC coast at 1800z Sat. pressure 950mb.

[weatherobsuk]

Some good reading material on how the NYC authorities would handle a 'cane around CAT3

http://www.livescience.com/8551-york-city-handle-hurricane.html

[Iceberg]

Yep there seems to be two planes in atm, both just got there, not sure on the rational for that but hey !.

so 957 is the pressure atm.

Edited August 24, 2011 by Iceberg

[mezzacyclone]

Yep there seems to be two places in atm, both just got there, not sure on the rational for that but hey !.

so 957 is the pressure atm.

Yes, the deciphered NOAA 2eyedrop data >

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 957mb (28.26 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 26.3°C (79.3°F) 175° (from the S) 3 knots (3 mph)

[Iceberg]

It could be that due to the risk of sever US impact they are getting as much information as possible to feed into the models

[Jack Wales]

Astonishing strenghthening given the system is under 15 - 20 kt of westerly shear!

[Iceberg]

Busy time atm, with the two planes and various models coming up, not to mention the first visible pictures.

HWRF is out and places a direct hit on Long Island (sorry not Long beach that I have been mentioning , must have california on my mind).

Sustained winds over over 100mph from Queens, thru Manhatten and sustain winds of 120mph of Rhode Island etc.

Recon have just found flight winds of 112kts(130mph) which is boarderline CAT 3

Astonishing strenghthening given the system is under 15 - 20 kt of westerly shear!

I was a bit dubious about that shear tbh, this morning the system and CDO was perfectly shaped in the middle, which would indicate 5-10kts shear at most.....

[mezzacyclone]

FWIW: the NOAA craft is about 20 mile due SW of yankee town, west caicos

AF303 about 15 mile South of Mayaguana,,,,

[BornFromTheVoid]

956hPa, if I'm reading this right.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-NOAA.shtml?

[mezzacyclone]

956hPa, if I'm reading this right.

http://www.nhc.noaa....T15-NOAA.shtml?

yes, that matches BFTV,

11:43:00Z 21.900N 73.267W 754.3 mb

(~ 22.27 inHg) 2,098 meters

(~ 6,883 feet) 956.0 mb

(~ 28.23 inHg) - From 213° at 24 knots

(From the SSW at ~ 27.6 mph) 19.9°C

(~ 67.8°F) 15.9°C

(~ 60.6°F) 27 knots

(~ 31.0 mph) 35 knots

(~ 40.2 mph) 1 mm/hr

(~ 0.04 in/hr) 31.1 knots (~ 35.8 mph) 129.6% Time Coordinates Aircraft

Static Air Pressure Aircraft

Geopotential Height Extrapolated

Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)

Flight Level Wind SFMR

Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR

Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)

Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to

Est. Surface Reduction Factor

[Iceberg]

Yes you are reading it right, there might be lower pressures still when that updates.

The USAF plane is not recording pressure so good that we have the second one in.

Edited August 24, 2011 by Iceberg

[Paranoid]

She's now a Category 3 according to the NHC. Pressure is set at 957mb. I would post the advisory but the copy and paste system has gone a bit weird since the forum got updated.

"...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THECROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS..."

[Iceberg]

Lowest pressure now 954.6mb, so we officially have rapid intensification

[BornFromTheVoid]

BULLETINHURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THECROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...21.9N 73.3WABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF ACKLINS ISLAND BAHAMASABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF NASSAUMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

[Iceberg]

She's now a Category 3 according to the NHC. Pressure is set at 957mb. I would post the advisory but the copy and paste system has gone a bit weird since the forum got updated.

"...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THECROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS..."

You get the feeling that NHC are playing catch up a little atm and probably panicing a little, hence the two planes.

[Jayces]

Read the piece SNOW_JOKE posted about how to deal with a potential NYC hit and it was interesting but does put a lot of pressure on NHC to get this right as the one thing that was noted was the significant more time that is needed to evacuate somewhere like that.

They wouldn't want to panic people and then nothing happens but at the same time not leave it to late and have a terrible disaster on their hands.

The disaster movies / documentries featuring mother nature at her worst always make fascinating viewing but the real thing is obviously much more terrifying and maybe the correct model this time will be one that takes her away from the US mainland at the last minute.

Incidently, any idea what the maximum time is that can accuratly predict a landfall, ie are we talking an hour from the cost, 6, 12, 24 or longer?

NHC have now upgraded her to Cat 3.

[Iceberg]

She can be predicted 72 hrs out, certainly the New Orleans hit was as I was tracking it on NETW.

GFDL has worst case scenario with a CAT 5 hit on North Carolina and then a CAT 4 with the NE quad into New York itself and everything that entails.

There is no doubt that the 06Z suite of models have shifted westwards and strengthen Irene even more. NYC must be preparing evacuation plans as we speak.

[mezzacyclone]

AF vortex message indicates:

Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)

that 954.6mb reading indicating centre was @ 22.000N 73.383W about 30 stat miles SE of crooked Island.

[mezzacyclone]

both planes on the periphery at the moment doing a merry dance with Irene before meeting in the middle again

little of interest such as 997mb ESP and 40knot est Surf winds from craft at 8k feet,,,,

[Polar Bear]

Some good reading material on how the NYC authorities would handle a 'cane around CAT3

http://www.livescien...-hurricane.html

Can someone explain how this (the fridge bit) is a tip for keeping safe on that link. I dont follow;;;

• !Turn off utilities if instructed to do so. Otherwise, turn the refrigerator thermostat to its coldest setting and keep its doors closed."
  

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/203108/20110824/hurricane-irene-takes-aim-at-new-york.htm

[yamkin]

Gov. Perdue Urges North Carolinians to Prepare for Hurricane Irene http://www.governor.nc.gov/NewsItems/PressReleaseDetail.aspx?newsItemID=1978

[geoffw]

i seriously doubt nyc will be hit by a major hurricane or evacuated