Major Hurricane Irene

[BornFromTheVoid]

000 WTNT64 KNHC 220958 TCUAT4 HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 550 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011 CORRECTED TIME IN DATE/STIME HEADER PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED ON PUERTO RICO...AND MORE THAN 800 THOUSAND HOMES ARE WITHOUT POWER ON THE ISLAND. ALSO...FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES WINDS TO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE NOW OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Got there just before me Ice!

Sounds like quite a lot of damage in PR.

Edited August 22, 2011 by BornFromTheVoid

[Somerset Squall]

Irene is quickly closing off her eye looking at the PR radar. Irene is ramping up, and quickly:

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=SJU&brand=wui&num=40&delay=5&type=TZL&frame=0&scale=0.337&noclutter=0&t=1313987763&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=None&map.x=400&map.y=240�erx=322�ery=139&transx=-78&transy=-101&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=Show&lightning=1&smooth=1

[Iceberg]

Perfect time for recon to go in, current about 45mins to 1hr from decent obs.

Any guesses as to pressure and wind speed. ?

I'd probably go 970 and 85kts flight winds

[Jack Wales]

Yes, radar images show the eye forming about 20-30nm north of Peurto Rico with the north coast of the island being lashed by the southern sector of the developing eyewall. Irene is clearly undergoing rapid intensification, this process itself can cause mesovortices within the eyewall which are probably resonsible for the damage currently being observed. Don't be surprised to see this system upgraded to a Cat 2 + by the end of today. I only hope it does not make a direct hit on Hispinola.

Ice, I predict 975mb but as the system is fairly tight, I would expect 90kt flight winds.

[Iceberg]

If's she's under RI and it's being predicted by a CMI then she might well be CAT 3 by end of today, interaction with PR seemed to tighten up Irene instead of hindering her, something that happens occasionally with limited landfall.

[Iceberg]

TS winds being recorded along way to the east of the system just on the edge of the convection. The TS wind field of Irene is already very large.

[Coast]

It looks like on the Eastern coast of the US , someone is going to see Irene in the next couple of days

[knocker]

Latest Sat.

[mezzacyclone]

Not finding any influence wotsoever to potentially weaken this?

media picking up on huge disruption for FL.

UKmet favoring more westerly trojection? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet/00zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropical120.gif

[Iceberg]

Nothing really to weaken it unfortunately apart from internal dynamics as far as I can see.

Recon now have 50kt flight winds and are still quite a way off with pressure of 1008mb.

[knocker]

And latest radar.

[mezzacyclone]

this thing is HUGE already? :o

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=5&map=latlon

[Coast]

Interesting video featuring an interview with Jeff Berardelli, meteorologist from WFOR-TV, on the route Irene might take:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7377566n

[Iceberg]

Flight winds to 60kts now but still not at the centre.

[Iceberg]

Pressure 999mb so far max winds 68kts, but still not near the eye.

Looks like min pressure of 987mb with a large eye.

[mezzacyclone]

Interesting snippet out of the last NHC adv/disc suggesting the outflow will join the westerly/north westerly upper lev mid-lat flow over the mid-atlantic states come friday+ and the upper lev mass confluence could persevere with the mid-low lev ridge yielding stronger than what Nogaps & ECM are forecasting? hence a more possible (east) coast hugger?

All mightely interesting to quell a monday hangover

http://img846.imageshack.us/img846/9546/082206zhwrfswath.png

[Robbie Garrett]

Jeeze, that's a CAT 5 hitting east cost of the USA then?

[mezzacyclone]

Jeeze, that's a CAT 5 hitting east cost of the USA then?

indeed.

but GFDL going worser case scenario with more central Fl?

http://imageshack.us/f/16/082206zgfdlswath.png/

[Iceberg]

She is still obviously in the forming stages so pressure, winds haven't responded as yet, but recon will be in their a little while.

the 06's are out and must be giving a few heartattacks in the insurance industry.

GFDL takes 140mph winds across the whole of Florida.

GFS 140mph winds up the east coast and into NY.

HWRF 160mph winds into the mid coast eastside.

The globals take her further east as she becomes so large she's able to move the high further out, basically she becomes a global weather player.

[Jack Wales]

A long way to go before it hits the USA.

Land interaction with Hispinola will play a big part in forecasting the strength of Irene. If the weakness in the ridge to the north proves to be more profound than expected, she could take a path through the bahamas and loop out into the atlantic, thus missing the US mainland altogether. It's also worth noting that the NHC rate the chances of Irene becoming a cat 5 at any stage in the next 5 days at less than 1%.

[Robbie Garrett]

Whatever happens it's going to be a devastating Hurricane making landfall where it does. NASA forecasters are closely following Hurricane Irene. The latest track shows the storm off Kennedy Space Center's coast on Friday morning.

[mezzacyclone]

been mentioned that the NHC is being very conservative ATM?, restricting initial panic?

anyone (iceb) see the GFDL as an outlier?

anticipating GIV gulfstream data later to maybe help clarify matters,,,,

[Paranoid]

The NHC forecasts are often quite conservative, i've always wondered if there was some other reasoning behind it. It may be that they want to resist putting out predictions of strong hurricanes and then have a no show as that leads to complacency when it comes to preparing people for storms. Happened with Cyclone Tracy in Australia, where people didn't take heed of the warnings partly because a cyclone had been forecast to hit them a week or so before and nothing came of it.

[Iceberg]

No outliers, this is what the models have been saying for multiple runs now, with considerable cross model spread.

It's worth saying though that beyond CAT 3 is heavily down to internal dynamics no matter what the models say. It's not a good sign though that she has developed such as large well defined eye this quickly.

[Paranoid]

She seems to have weakened a little, possibly due to interaction with Puerto Rico?

-LOCATION..

.19.0N 67.2WABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO

ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

Edited August 22, 2011 by Paranoid