Major Hurricane Irene

[weatherobsuk]

The storm surge alone will cause enough concern for NYC authorities to start issuing mandatory evacs in the lower precincts given Manhattan Island is only 10m asl at its highest. Storm surge models coming out of the Bahamas along the Eastern seaboard put max heights of 15m and potentially higher depending on oceanic topography, funnelling effects and tidal range. So even if all the models in the world scupper this, and it ends 100miles offshore NYC, don't think the city can't be effected in other ways. Aswell as the rainfall from Irene causing river backbuild meeting up with the surge upstream.

[FetchCB]

According to NYC Office of Emegency Management http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/home/home.shtml

a CAT 3 could cause storm surge that would flood Wall Street

[knocker]

A Google image.

[Paranoid]

Latest advisory is out, forecast once more to reach Category 4 with 135mph winds. After that, the NHC expects an eye wall replacement cycle to occur which should stop further strengthening.

Edited August 24, 2011 by Paranoid

[Iceberg]

Dry air is making it's way into the core of Irene atm and the latest(final) vortex reinforced this with an open eye wall.

I wouldn't expect much strenghtening now until tomorrow.

[Somerset Squall]

My personal hunch (and of course I could be wrong) is that NHC's peak of 115kts is going to be too low. IMO, Irene looks like she is closing in on cat 4 already:

[Iceberg]

Model time again, To show no bias either way I am be looking at the GFS, GFDL, HWRF and ECM 12Z's (I don't think anybody could complain about this lot).

I'll be using the site at Florida University (the people that actual develop the models).

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/weather/

Firstly we have GFS 12Z

This is slightly further east and just about gives TS winds to the far east of Florida, Re NYC it crosses the eye just to the east of Long Island taking the stronger 100kt+ winds in the NE quad over Boston and Rhode Island and 80-90kt winds over NYC, manhatten and long island.

[mezzacyclone]

snippet: > Peak FL 121.9mph @ 22.450N 73.983W

[philglossop]

Model time again, To show no bias either way I am be looking at the GFS, GFDL, HWRF and ECM 12Z's (I don't think anybody could complain about this lot).

I'll be using the site at Florida University (the people that actual develop the models).

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/weather/

Firstly we have GFS 12Z

This is slightly further east and just about gives TS winds to the far east of Florida, Re NYC it crosses the eye just to the east of Long Island taking the stronger 100kt+ winds in the NE quad over Boston and Rhode Island and 80-90kt winds over NYC, manhatten and long island.

Worrying for NYC and Boston, do I spy Jose as well in that chart- looking rather "Fishy"

[Iceberg]

HWRF is out and shows hurricane winds for a larger portion of N.Carolina.

It then puts 100mph winds right up the coast between N.Carolina and New York.

NYC, Manhatten then get 85+kt winds Long Island 85-100kt winds and Rhode Island 100+kt i.e 130mph.

These are sustained wind speed predictions.

Overall very similar run to the 06Z.

[Coopsy]

I dont think the winds will be too much of a concern for the buildings of NYC. Have you been in a nor' easter in January in New York. The CAT 1 winds of 80mph will be equivalent, the only difference is that the trees will be full of leaves so more trees will be uprooted. The storm surge will definitely be a concern with large parts of Manhattan just above sea level. Either way if its a hit or not there is gonna be a tonne of rain and potential flooding

[mezzacyclone]

The more trustworthy HWRF @108 and severe consequences for NYC megalopolis?

[Paranoid]

Looks like cloud tops are cooling again after warming up slightly earlier on. Convection is greatest over the NE quadrant.

[cold&cloudy]

This could be a bad scenario for Delaware, New Jersey, and NYC.

[Jayces]

Seeing what the various professional supposedly in the know say the general feeling is that since Sunday Irene has been trending Eastwards so that means that she will most likely continue doing so thus sparing the NE from the worst by the time she gets there at the weekend.

My question is, I think from the last model run or 2 there has been a slight shift Westwards so is this one of the famous wobbles or is it possible for Irene to change direction and trend back Westwards on future runs?

[Somerset Squall]

Winds have been upped to 105kts from the NHC. Pressure down to 954mb.

[Paul Sherman]

Will be tracking this from the air. Fly back from Phoenix on Sunday and should be bang over the New York area Sunday, will have Camera with me in the Cabin of the BA Aircraft. Might even get a little bump on the Jet Stream and get back early - Lol

[Chris D]

Seeing what the various professional supposedly in the know say the general feeling is that since Sunday Irene has been trending Eastwards so that means that she will most likely continue doing so thus sparing the NE from the worst by the time she gets there at the weekend.

My question is, I think from the last model run or 2 there has been a slight shift Westwards so is this one of the famous wobbles or is it possible for Irene to change direction and trend back Westwards on future runs?

From now on, small changes westward would be possible, but personally having looked at the model tracks for this over the last week or so, I think it is unlikely that the consensus will move that far west at this stage. But remember, just last weekend many models were indicating a direct hit at Florida with some even into the Gulf of Mexico! So, another trend eastward wouldn't surprise me.

But however, this second trough, the one behind that is now drawing the system NW, seems to be strong enough to try to bring the system a touch more W further up the coast. So thats why NYC and places nearby should be concerned.

[cold&cloudy]

I live in New Jersey so I'll keep you updated if the storm has significant impacts.

[Iceberg]

Quick update on the two remaining models, GFDL and ECM.

ECM 12Z : takes a further westerly course and puts 100kts winds right up the coast again very similar to HWRF, it then also hits the NYC/Manhatten/long island region with Rhode island getting the strongest winds 120mph sustained.

GFDL is in some ways even worse and carries Irene up the coast and directly over NYC/Queens etc with 80-100kts (95-120mph) sustained winds over NYC eastwards.

WRT the models trending eastwards, they did yesterday, today and particularly the 12's though have stopped and slightly reversed this.

ALL the above models(GFS,ECM,HWRF and GFDL) take a direct strong to Major Hurricane between NYC and Rhode Island.

They also give winds ranging from 65kt to 100kts over N.Carolina.

IMO the NHC will trend west ! in the next advisory.

[Jayces]

Just watching nasa tv live showing Irene

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html

[peterf]

anyone see the stunning live video of her from space,it's just been on Sky News.

[Polar Bear]

Just watching nasa tv live showing Irene

http://www.nasa.gov/...satv/index.html

Damn I missed it but that link and live nasa tv i dangerously addicted. Great little link that. Did I think see irene on one of the screens at the front at mission control... oh she looked enormous.

Over an hour til the next advisory and I have been glued to all the updates from you all on the models. Whichever model all the scenarios look signifcant impact for parts of USA; unless it suddenly starts dissipating towards the weekend. What is the margin for that happening though?

[picog]

I live in New Jersey so I'll keep you updated if the storm has significant impacts.

Thanks. Have you had any advisories?

[Polar Bear]

I dont think the winds will be too much of a concern for the buildings of NYC. Have you been in a nor' easter in January in New York. The CAT 1 winds of 80mph will be equivalent, the only difference is that the trees will be full of leaves so more trees will be uprooted. The storm surge will definitely be a concern with large parts of Manhattan just above sea level. Either way if its a hit or not there is gonna be a tonne of rain and potential flooding

Hmm unless the bulidngs have been structurally designed to cope with these winds (hurricane) I suspect some will struggle. A north easterly will have a far less load on the structure than the sustained winds and forces from a hurricane. These forces will be greater over a longer period of time; giving rise to potential failure in the structure.

Echo your thoughts on the storm surge and I really do hope people take heed of warnings and make themselves get to safe place....not stay and ride it out when they are in a threatened area...