October CET

[Paul T]

I think the first half will average 15.5ish and the second half will be in single figures.

Mid 12's likely finish.

[summer blizzard]

I think the first half will average 15.5ish and the second half will be in single figures.

Mid 12's likely finish.

I think the first half will average 15.5ish and the second half will be in single figures.

Mid 12's likely finish.

At this range it looks as though we may just about miss the warmest first half on record however there does look to be a collapse afterward with a consistently cooler outlook.

[damianslaw]

Yes we could see one of those classic switcharound months - with a very mild first half cancelled out by a cold second half meaning the end result will be a CET near average.

I suspect we will end up above average still, but no more than 1 degree. A marked cooldown is very likely to set in early next week - reminds me of similiar months like Nov 2005 which saw two very marked contrasting halves.

[BornFromTheVoid]

We're at 15.5C to the 11th after yesterday averaged 15.7C

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

The maximum yesterday was 16.5C, but I'm sure when I checked the map on xcweather yesterday evening, the majority of stations around the CET area were 18 or 19C? Even now they're mostly 18 or 19C and on the animation it shows higher temps this time yesterday?

Anywho, another quite mild night last night of 12.1C, and maxima look like being around 19C again, so it's touch and go whether we go to 15.6C or remain on 15.5C tomorrow.

After that, quite a cool down. We may even nip under 15.0C by the 15th and could be as low as 13.8C by the 19th if the 06z GFS is right!

[TonyH]

First 13 days of October here have been warmer than June, July, August or September..quite an achievement.

Mean temperature 1st - 13th: 15.2c

Edited October 13, 2011 by Tonyh

[summer blizzard]

CET stayed at 15.5C to the 12th.

It looks to me as if the CET is going to tank a lot until at least the 21st with a finish of less than 12.7C looking likely to me which will be less than 2C above average.

[TonyH]

It would be a surprise if it did not drop off given its mid October, and we have had just about the warmest start to an October on record!

[summer blizzard]

It would be a surprise if it did not drop off given its mid October, and we have had just about the warmest start to an October on record!

There is a big difference though between having a drop and seeing the warmest first half (or near) followed by a below average second half.

[SP1986]

I'd be very surprised if October finished below average, in fact I'd be mortified.. well it would take something exceptionally cold.

The interesting thing for me is that if October finishes around 11-12C on the CET, and then both November and December finish average, then we could be looking at the warmest year on record...

There's nearly always an equalling out effect though, and so I imagine November or December will provide an equalising effect to the yearly CET.

[Milhouse]

The warmest year on record would be a very tall order. Say October finishes on 12c and November and December are both 2c above average then we would finish on 10.69c which would put us in second place behind 2006 (10.82c). An exceptionaly warm remaining 2 months would be required which would be almost impossible. If November and December were average, providing October finished on 12c, then we would have 10.39c.

[summer blizzard]

I'd be very surprised if October finished below average, in fact I'd be mortified.. well it would take something exceptionally cold.

The interesting thing for me is that if October finishes around 11-12C on the CET, and then both November and December finish average, then we could be looking at the warmest year on record...

There's nearly always an equalling out effect though, and so I imagine November or December will provide an equalising effect to the yearly CET.

You may have misunderstood, i was not suggesting that October will finish below average. I was suggesting that the second half as a standalone period may be below average and this is very unusual.

[SP1986]

You may have misunderstood, i was not suggesting that October will finish below average. I was suggesting that the second half as a standalone period may be below average and this is very unusual.

Ii was just making a general statement, not replying to anyone's post, sorry for any confusion

The warmest year on record would be a very tall order. Say October finishes on 12c and November and December are both 2c above average then we would finish on 10.69c which would put us in second place behind 2006 (10.82c). An exceptionaly warm remaining 2 months would be required which would be almost impossible. If November and December were average, providing October finished on 12c, then we would have 10.39c.

Can you link me to this entire years CET figures so I can verify this? 10.39C seems very low to me.

Edit: sorry just found it, it seems you're right. The final CET figures are lower than I expected them to be, especially April.

This was based on my own figures, which I assumed where pretty much in line with the CET, but it seems they're quite a bit above the CET figures so far (which is understandable being coastal.

Apologies.

[kold weather]

Yep a record breaking year is a tough ask, I was a little surprised we aren't more above average but we've had a few cool months among the very above average months (such as Jan and the summer months) which have dragged the average down a little. Still possible to get record breaking, though it would probably require 2 of the 3 months left to be at or very close to record breaking levels...may well get that with October as well...

[SP1986]

What is the record for October? it's one of those months that you would think of being anything but record breaking.. usually a quiet month in terms of temperatures/records.

[Robbie Garrett]

The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 10.82 which is 1.35 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 2.44 for the remainder of the year

The lowest annual mean CET ever recorded was 6.84 which is -2.63 lower than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be lower than -15.95 for the remainder of the year

Would be amazing to beat the lowest....!!

[summer blizzard]

What is the record for October? it's one of those months that you would think of being anything but record breaking.. usually a quiet month in terms of temperatures/records.

13.6C set in 2001 although Octobers 2005 and 2006 were at 13.1C and 13.3C.

It looks to me as if we will finish in the 12.2C-12.7C range, so 1.5C to 2C above the 1981-2010 average. ECWMF and GFS are both arguing even as early as Thursday however both show above average days to be in the small minority throughout their runs.

15.4C to the 13th.

[Weather-history]

13.6C set in 2001 although Octobers 2005 and 2006 were at 13.1C and 13.3C.

Its actually 13.3C set in 2001 and Oc 2005 was 13.1C and 2006 was 13.0C

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.3C to the 14th

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 13.7C.Minimum today is 4.7C (coolest since May 19th) and maxima should be around 16C so a drop back to 14.9C tomorrow looks likely.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET around

14.8C to the 16th (12.7)

14.6C to the 17th (11.4)

14.2C to the 18th (8.3)

13.9C to the 19th (8.4)

13.6C to the 20th (6.7)

13.4C to the 21st (9.3)

13.3C to the 22nd (10.8]

[Isolated Frost]

11.5c to 12.5c is the likely range in my opinion.

[Milhouse]

The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 10.82 which is 1.35 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 2.44 for the remainder of the year

The lowest annual mean CET ever recorded was 6.84 which is -2.63 lower than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be lower than -15.95 for the remainder of the year

Would be amazing to beat the lowest....!!

It would be incredible, but it would require the rest of the year to be 16c below average. A November CET of -10c and December CET of -11c would do it

[DAVID SNOW]

11.5c to 12.5c is the likely range in my opinion.

Indeed my boy.

I would go a little lower and say sub 12 looking favourite.

[damianslaw]

CET will take a nosedive in the coming days. Hard to say how the last week may pan out - tentative signs of heights building strongly to the NW which could signal a cold frosty end which should hinder the chances of the warmest ever October. Personally I am not expecting a record breaker this month.

[Milhouse]

I've written off the chance of a record warm month as you really need the whole month to be dominated by southwesterlies bringing warm days as well as nights. We had such a warm start but since then we havent had the right synoptics to maintain the CET at sich a high level. I would guess 12c after corrections at this stage.

[TonyH]

So, how has the first half of October compared with other warm starts I wonder?

My guess is that it is in the top handful.

After our cool week ahead, perhaps more average to mild conditions setting up from next weekend?

My shot looks a touch too low, a finish in the mid 12s likely.

Edited October 16, 2011 by Tonyh

[Backtrack]

No chance of a below average October. It's going to be very warm, finishing a few degrees above average.

12.7C.

Just call me Guru Backtrack.