October CET

[Isolated Frost]

Yes - daily max averages for the next week in my opinion will be around 18c (sunday, monday, tuesday mild in cet zone), wednesday, thursday, friday (potential for sunny, warm days in cet zone), saturday, sunday (turning cooler in cet zone), and mins will be around 10c. Generally above average - but this is where I see a big difference between UK and CET temps this month as parts of Scotland and N Ireland are running average or slightly below currently.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Gotta agree with IF on this one. The minima forecast to stay 5/6C above average for most of the next week.

We'll likely see no change tomorrow, with today averaging in the 15s.

After that, the 12z GFS would have the CET around

15.6C to the 10th (17.2)

15.7C to the 11th (16.6)

15.8C to the 12th (16.1)

15.8C to the 13th (15.8]

15.8C to the 14th (15.6)

15.8C to the 15th (15.7)

15.4C to the 16th (10.7)

[Isolated Frost]

Gotta agree with IF on this one. The minima forecast to stay 5/6C above average for most of the next week.

We'll likely see no change tomorrow, with today averaging in the 15s.

After that, the 12z GFS would have the CET around

15.6C to the 10th (17.2)

15.7C to the 11th (16.6)

15.8C to the 12th (16.1)

15.8C to the 13th (15.8]

15.8C to the 14th (15.6)

15.8C to the 15th (15.7)

15.4C to the 16th (10.7)

Odds on for a record warm month bftv?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just guessing that if the CET was at, say, 15.6C on the 15th, we'd need 11.1C for the rest of the month to equal the record.

A couple of fairly chilly days could take a real chunk out of the CET and with the 2nd half of October usually quite a bit cooler than the 1st, my uneducated guess at this stage is a 35% chance of breaking the record.

Mr Data, many years after 1850 with 2 record warm months?

[Optimus Prime]

Highly likely to be the warmest October on record (>70%)

So that's 2 record warm months in a year. April being the other. Only time that has ever happened before in over 350 years was in 2006 (July and September with October being extremely close)

[Aaron]

It would be funny if this October turns out to be the warmest on record, because despite the first few days, October so far is pretty dull!

[Weather-history]

Highly likely to be the warmest October on record (>70%)

So that's 2 record warm months in a year. April being the other. Only time that has ever happened before in over 350 years was in 2006 (July and September with October being extremely close)

It happened in 1733 with the then January, April, July and December were all the warmest at that time

1921 was a near miss, the January, the 2nd warmest and the October the then warmest

1938 was a near miss. March was the then warmest and the November, the then 2nd warm.

In 1977, June was only 0.4C warmer than the October. October has never been warmer than June.

Edited October 9, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Isolated Frost]

1659 would have had 12 warm records, wouldn't it?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

at least 2 nasty horrid cold days to come on 18th and 19th, will put the CET down a bit

[AderynCoch]

There goes my 10.5 anyhow, barring a sudden and unlikely 1926esque cooldown (a candidate for best October ever if that occurred).

After such an exceptionally warm start to the month the only way was ever going to be down for the CET - but we again find ourselves facing a spell of significantly warmer-than-average temperatures (though obviously nothing like those experienced at the start of the month). Any cold later in the month will too have to be significant if it is to take chunks out of the exceptionally high running value.

Gotta agree with IF on this one. The minima forecast to stay 5/6C above average for most of the next week.

We'll likely see no change tomorrow, with today averaging in the 15s.

After that, the 12z GFS would have the CET around

15.6C to the 10th (17.2)

15.7C to the 11th (16.6)

15.8C to the 12th (16.1)

15.8C to the 13th (15.8]

15.8C to the 14th (15.6)

15.8C to the 15th (15.7)

15.4C to the 16th (10.7)

Here are the ten warmest Octobers in the CET record since 1772, and the corresponding CET for the period 1st-15th (the final value in brackets):

2001 - 14.4 (13.3)

2005 - 13.1 (13.1)

1969 - 14.1 (13.0)

2006 - 13.5 (13.0)

1995 - 14.7 (12.9)

1921 - 15.4 (12.

1831 - 13.9 (12.7)

1959 - 14.9 (12.6)

1968 - 13.3 (12.5)

1811 - 13.3 (12.3)

Very well placed to beat 1921 for the warmest first half of October on record.

Edited October 9, 2011 by AderynCoch

[Styx]

Based purely on the inexactt science of the law of averages, if October is a record breaker, then months that follow will be unusually cool.

( April record CET, May mild but not as extreme, then summer months below average )

( October record CET?, November slightly mild but not as extreme, then winter months below average ?)

[Weather-history]

It will be interesting how late into the year we can go where a 31 day continuous period is warmer than July.

July was 15.2

7th September-8th October CET: 15.2

[Methuselah]

Aye, my guess has been kyboshed too...

[Milhouse]

There goes my 10.5 anyhow, barring a sudden and unlikely 1926esque cooldown (a candidate for best October ever if that occurred).

After such an exceptionally warm start to the month the only way was ever going to be down for the CET - but we again find ourselves facing a spell of significantly warmer-than-average temperatures (though obviously nothing like those experienced at the start of the month). Any cold later in the month will too have to be significant if it is to take chunks out of the exceptionally high running value.

Dont worry we'll all be seeing -20c and blizzards within weeks

[reef]

Hadley is on 15.4C to the 9th.

A mean of 12.5C is required in the remaining 22 days to beat the record of 13.3C in 2001.

[Optimus Prime]

It happened in 1733 with the then January, April, July and December were all the warmest at that time

1921 was a near miss, the January, the 2nd warmest and the October the then warmest

1938 was a near miss. March was the then warmest and the November, the then 2nd warm.

In 1977, June was only 0.4C warmer than the October. October has never been warmer than June.

1773 - The CET series had only just started in 1772...hardly a reasonable comparison! All the others you mention are 'near misses' April 2011 beat 2007 by a huge margin. July and August 2006 beat their previous records by 0.2c.

Beating 2 records in one year with 239 years of records is incredible. Prior to 2006, with a reasonable history of records, it's never happened before..until 2011.

[AderynCoch]

1773 - The CET series had only just started in 1772...hardly a reasonable comparison! All the others you mention are 'near misses' April 2011 beat 2007 by a huge margin. July and August 2006 beat their previous records by 0.2c.

Beating 2 records in one year with 239 years of records is incredible. Prior to 2006, with a reasonable history of records, it's never happened before..until 2011.

The monthly CET series goes back to 1659. He was referring to 1733. Also I think you mean September 2006 rather than August.

All the same it would be quite something to bag the warmest April and October in the same year. I just wish the cold anomalies didn't have to occur during the summer.

[The PIT]

Hadley is on 15.4C to the 9th.

A mean of 12.5C is required in the remaining 22 days to beat the record of 13.3C in 2001.

Well the first days of this week will pass that however gfs is showing cooler weather by this weekend which could well put a spanner in the works.

[Isolated Frost]

Today, above average. Tomorrow, slightly so. Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, should be from average to above depending on sunshine amounts and fog/coolness. Saturday, above average. Sunday average, Monday possibly below average (confidence fading). Next week average should be about 14c-15.5c so imo record breaking temperature for October increasingly likely unless:

consistent polar maritime from 20th to halloween (20% likelyhood)

cool easterlies and north-easterlies giving very low maxima from 20th to halloween (5%)

fairly cool polar maritime and tropical maritime with one nationwide cold blast from a northerly from 20th to halloween (40%)

[Weather-history]

1773 - The CET series had only just started in 1772...hardly a reasonable comparison!

Although 1733 is only about 70 odd years into the CET records some of the values are not to be sniffed at.

January 1733 (6.9) was the warmest January on record until 1796. Its now the 6th warmest

April 1733 (10.0) was the warmest April on record until 1794, now joint 14th warmest

July 1733 (18.3) was the warmest July on record until 1757, now joint 10th warmest

December 1733 (7.6) was the warmest December on record until 1852, now 4th warmest

1733 was the warmest year on record, later joined by 1834 and 1921 (10.47) until 1959

Edited October 10, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Optimus Prime]

Indeed - I meant September 2006 not August.

For the series I was referring to anomaly chart on hadleys CET site;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

Of course 1773 was very mild, somewhat by recent comparisons too but it must've been exceptional at the time. Aside from December, all of those months pale in comparison to what has been experienced since 1997. The modern maximum still seems to be going strong after the very cold last year (blip)

[DR Hosking]

Today, above average. Tomorrow, slightly so. Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, should be from average to above depending on sunshine amounts and fog/coolness. Saturday, above average. Sunday average, Monday possibly below average (confidence fading). Next week average should be about 14c-15.5c so imo record breaking temperature for October increasingly likely unless:

consistent polar maritime from 20th to halloween (20% likelyhood)

cool easterlies and north-easterlies giving very low maxima from 20th to halloween (5%)

fairly cool polar maritime and tropical maritime with one nationwide cold blast from a northerly from 20th to halloween (40%)

Latest GFS has temps widely down to 2 or 3c overnight for weekend with max's at 13 or 14c in CET zone, doesn't sound too mild to me!

[Isolated Frost]

Latest GFS has temps widely down to 2 or 3c overnight for weekend with max's at 13 or 14c in CET zone, doesn't sound too mild to me!

GFS underdoes temperatures, usually.

[reef]

Hadley is 15.5C to the 10th. Yesterday was 16.4C.

Today's min alone is 14.9C, so tomorrow may well see another small increase.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Today should average around 17C, so we should be at 15.7C on tomorrows update.

After that, going by the 12z GFS, the CET will be on

15.8C to the 12th (16.9)

15.7C to the 13th (14.9)

15.4C to the 14th (12.0)

15.1C to the 15th (10.4)

14.8C to the 16th (9.9)

14.6C to the 17th (11.5)

14.3C to the 18th (9.1)

Bit of a cool down on the cards