October CET

[The PIT]

Probably end up around 13.3 before adjustments some cool nights and days coming up but these will be offset by a mild end to the month.

[summer blizzard]

I think that 12.7C before adjustments looks good right now, so my thoughts around the 10th of 12.2-12.7C after adjustments look good.

Very mild but fairly non-descript month for me.

[Kentish Man]

Maybe Born from the Void can kindly do his usual calculations to the end of the month but I can't see that much slippage in the pre adjustment figure.

[Isolated Frost]

12.8-13.0 in my opinion. All types of Atlantic (pm rpm tm) possible for the last few days, so nothing overly mild (in the 13c range which we have amazingly have become accustomed to in this very mild month).

January- average

February- exceptionally above

March- slightly above

April- exceptionally above

May- above

June- slightly below

July- slightly below

August- average

September- above

October- exceptionally above

Its a shame personally all the warmth has came outside summer. Typical really!

[damianslaw]

12.8-13.0 in my opinion. All types of Atlantic (pm rpm tm) possible for the last few days, so nothing overly mild (in the 13c range which we have amazingly have become accustomed to in this very mild month).

January- average

February- exceptionally above

March- slightly above

April- exceptionally above

May- above

June- slightly below

July- slightly below

August- average

September- above

October- exceptionally above

Its a shame personally all the warmth has came outside summer. Typical really!

Yes something we have become rather too accustomed too in the past 4 years. Perhaps next year we will see the warmth reserved for the summer months with a cooler spring and autumn. I'm getting a bit tired of how our most sustained mild/warm spells seem to increasingly come in the shoulder seasons i.e. April and Sept/Oct - but increasingly also in Feb/Mar - again not when I want it. May - Aug would do fine.

[Scorcher]

I think that 12.7C before adjustments looks good right now, so my thoughts around the 10th of 12.2-12.7C after adjustments look good.

Very mild but fairly non-descript month for me.

12.7C before adjustments? I'd be surprised if it's that low now looking at how the mild weekend is going to be. 12.7C after adjustments perhaps, but it may not even be that low. Also I'm rather puzzled by the idea it has been a non-descript month. I thought the hot spell early in the month was a truly spectacular event- I never thought I'd see 29C in October.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Maybe Born from the Void can kindly do his usual calculations to the end of the month but I can't see that much slippage in the pre adjustment figure.

Seen as you asked so nicely!

Minimum today is 4.9C and maxima were a little under 15C I think so we should be at 13.1C tomorrow.

After that, the 12z would have the CET around

13.0C to the 27th (9.8]

12.9C to the 28th (9.4)

12.8C to the 29th (10.5)

12.8C to the 30th (13.5)

12.8C to the 31st (13.5)

[TonyH]

12.7C before adjustments? I'd be surprised if it's that low now looking at how the mild weekend is going to be. 12.7C after adjustments perhaps, but it may not even be that low. Also I'm rather puzzled by the idea it has been a non-descript month. I thought the hot spell early in the month was a truly spectacular event- I never thought I'd see 29C in October.

Agreed, the hottest ever recorded maxima for much of England and Wales, and in the top handful of warmest October's, how on earth could that be described as 'nondescript'? Had we just experienced record low minima and an exceptionally cold October, many on here would be extolling what an eventful month we have had!

[Isolated Frost]

13.1c to the 26th.

Generally a few drops and then a stable pattern. 12.5c after adjustments my call.

[summer blizzard]

Agreed, the hottest ever recorded maxima for much of England and Wales, and in the top handful of warmest October's, how on earth could that be described as 'nondescript'? Had we just experienced record low minima and an exceptionally cold October, many on here would be extolling what an eventful month we have had!

I am not suggesting that the start to October was not spectacular or that it has not been a very warm month however in terms of the weather for 25 days of the month, it has not been notable.

[Aaron]

Agreed, the hottest ever recorded maxima for much of England and Wales, and in the top handful of warmest October's, how on earth could that be described as 'nondescript'? Had we just experienced record low minima and an exceptionally cold October, many on here would be extolling what an eventful month we have had!

I'm not really interested in heat so I don't really think this October has been anything to write home about. I'd be much more interested if we saw -10C in October, that's just me though.

[BornFromTheVoid]

12.8C to the 18th

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 9.0C. Minimum today is 5.9C, maxima today are around 14C, so should stay at 12.8C tomorrow.

The 06z GFS has us finishing on 12.9C before corrections with the next 2 days averaging in the 14s.

[Weather-history]

Had we just experienced record low minima and an exceptionally cold October, many on here would be extolling what an eventful month we have had!

Probably because of the fact that exceptionally cold Octobers have been rare compared to exceptionally mild Octobers in recent years. The last notably cold Octobers were 1992 and 1993. We've had that many notably mild months in the last 20 odd years, that for me they are losing their "exceptionalness".

[BornFromTheVoid]

Maxima were a little lower than I'd thought yesterday, so we're now at 12.7C to the 29th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 9.8C. Today's minimum is 9.1C and maxima should be close to 17C, so we should remain at 12.7C tomorrow.

Tomorrow looks like having minima up near 14.5C, and maxima around 16.0C, so we'll probably finish on 12.8C now before corrections.

[Isolated Frost]

12.4-12.6c most likely.

[TonyH]

I hope the correction is big this month to be closer to my 12.1c.

[SP1986]

forgive my ignorance, but is there a reason why the CET is always corrected downwards?

[Harve]

Yesterday was 9.8C. Today's minimum is 9.1C and maxima should be close to 17C, so we should remain at 12.7C tomorrow.

Tomorrow looks like having minima up near 14.5C, and maxima around 16.0C, so we'll probably finish on 12.8C now before corrections.

That's mental for the last day of October! Does anyone have the daily highest minima records for October / November?

[TonyH]

Although very high I should think that gets beat in November sometimes. Even December has seen nights of 14c or more.

[Backtrack]

That's mental for the last day of October! Does anyone have the daily highest minima records for October / November?

The daily maximums are 19.0C to 21.0C for 28th - 31st. And those are the records for those 3 days.

forgive my ignorance, but is there a reason why the CET is always corrected downwards?

Would it be because the margin of error for stations is higher due to the sun, rather than incorrect minimums during the night?

Therefore stations may be reading a fraction too high for the day?

Edited October 30, 2011 by Backtrack

[Optimus Prime]

We've had some large correction for minima. In December 2010 the minima was recorded from -3.1c to -3.8c. No-one knows for sure but I suspect it's corrected to take into account urban warming

The highest October minimum on record is 17.9c on the 1st October 1985.

[summer blizzard]

There are likely several reasons for the corrections (there are rare months that are corrected upward). I seem to recall that they also correct to keep in line with the Manley series.

[Tom D]

My punt of 11.9 seems to be slightly off the mark for the month... it seems to have gone like a flash, with some very very mild conditions all month.

[Scorcher]

Some people have tried to play down the warmth during this month, suggesting that it was only the opening few days that were warm. If you look at it another way, however, it could be argued that it was only that cool spell just after mid-month which has prevented the month from rivalling and possibly beating 2001 as the warmest October on record. Apart from that spell it has been almost completely above average. Also some lower minima have probably dented the CET more than in 2001 with more clear sky at night.

Also, I wonder out of the mildest Octobers on record where this one will rank in terms of dryness- I'd imagine most very mild Octobers are wetter than average. I certainly recall 2001 being rather wet.

Edited October 31, 2011 by Scorcher

[SP1986]

If I looks at my own preliminary stats I can put down the frequency of days of what temperature occurred.. that's not to say my temperature are necessarily reflective of the situation, but that it shows how warm October has been..

Maximum

10C to 15C = 10 days

15C to 20C = 18 days

20C to 25C = 1 day

25C to 30C = 2 days

Minimum

5C to 10C = 12 days

10C to 15C = 12 days

15C to 20C = 7 days