October CET

[summer blizzard]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

14.9C

[Weather-history]

The warmest first half to October is 1921 with 15.1C

The first half of October 1949 was 14.9C and that dropped to 11.7C, so its possible for it to end up sub 12C

[Kentish Man]

Climate UK (Manley) has updated

CET: (Oct 1-17): 14.4°C (+3.4 degC) E&W Rain: (Oct 1-17): 29.2mm ( 56 per cent) E&W Sun: (Oct 1-17): 64.3hr (100 per cent)

© Philip Eden

Hadley is running fractionally higher at 14.5C (Oct 1 - 17}

Edited October 18, 2011 by Kentish Man

[TonyH]

With what the models are showing for next week, still an outside chance of beating the record?

EDIT: It would take a hell of a warm spell though, something like double figure minima and 17c maxima for a week.

Edited October 18, 2011 by Tonyh

[Isolated Frost]

I'm just linking what KK wrote earlier

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

I can see it falling to about 13.5C to the 19th. Even though we should get milder weather, we would still need extremely mild weather for mid-late October to get 13C means consistently. Maybe highs of 14-16c and lows of 7-9c until the 25th, and then possibly cooler afterwards? I'd go for 12c-12.5c as a good estimate right now.

[BornFromTheVoid]

14.2C to the 18th

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 8.5C. Minimum for today is 4.6C and maxima look like being around 11C, so we should be at 13.8C on tomorrows update.

The 06z GFS would then have the CET near

13.5C to the 20th (7.1)

13.3C to the 21st (9.8]

13.1C to the 22nd (9.3)

13.1C to the 23rd (11.4)

13.1C to the 24th (13.5)

13.1C to the 25th (12.5)

13.0C to the 26th (12.6)

[Isolated Frost]

If I had to hazard a guess now it would about 12.4c. Late October warmth is much less potent than early October and so means above 13c will be extremely hard to get.

About 1.7c-2.2c above average is my estimate. Mildest anomaly since April.

[Isolated Frost]

Recent days provisional temperatures at Durham-

14.10: 12.8c/4.7c (8.8c)

15.10: 14.1c/5.1c (9.6c)

16.10: 15.2c/8.7c (12.0c)

17.10: 14.0c/5.0c (9.5c)

18.10: 9.3c/4.4c (6.9c)

19.10: max 10.4c, min so far 4.6c

Generally nothing exceptional here - but tonight could be, currently 5.3c. Trending about 3c above average here I think.

[summer blizzard]

If I had to hazard a guess now it would about 12.4c. Late October warmth is much less potent than early October and so means above 13c will be extremely hard to get.

About 1.7c-2.2c above average is my estimate. Mildest anomaly since April.

It is actually possible that October could be less anomalous than February.

[Isolated Frost]

My own interpretation of the 00z GFS, temperature anomalies, looking at the pressure patterns and uppers. (10.5c average)

Thursday: cooler than normal, -1.5c--2.5c

Friday: generally milder, 1.0c-2.0c

Saturday: much milder, 1.5c-2.5c

Sunday: milder, 1.0c-2.0c

Monday: milder, potential for clearer skies in midlands and south, 0.5c-1.5c

Tuesday: more average uppers from low, average, -0.5c-0.5c

Wednesday: similar but more chance for clear skies in south, average, -0.5c-0.5c

Thursday: potential warm day and cool night, mild, 0.0c-1.0c

[BornFromTheVoid]

13.8C to the 19th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 7.8C (coldest since April 13th). Minimum for today is 2.6C (coldest since May 4th) and maxima should be a little over 11, so a drop to 13.5C tomorrow is likely.

[Isolated Frost]

I imagine we will be below the record (13.3c) by the 23rd. 12.5-13.0 before adjustments likely.

[Isolated Frost]

13.5c to the 20th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Temperatures i'd imagine should hold around the 11c-13c mark for the next week, so a range of 12.5c-13c still looks likely before adjustments after looking at todays 0z's, and the gfs 6z.

[Paul T]

Looking the latest Gfs ensembles we are looking at at a finishing figure of 12.8ish.

We have had so many spring/autumn months where they could be split into two halves, I actually think November is shaping to be a mlnth of a gradual decline in temp, consistently all month long! Im usually there or thereabouts with my predictions, but this one is a little out there for my liking.

[BornFromTheVoid]

13.3C to the 21st

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 9.8C. Minimum today is 7.7C and maxima were around 15C so a drop to 13.2C tomorrow looks likely.

[Isolated Frost]

13.2c to the 23rd; can't link as on phone.

Quite mild today, and I'd imagine some similar values until end of month; 12.7c-13c before adjustments I think?

[The PIT]

Seems that silly mild month is going by fairly well unnoticed. Normally we'd be getting delight with temps around 16c at this time of year but after the hot start nobodies really noticing.

[Scorcher]

I agree, I'm surprised this thread isn't more active. There's still a slight chance it could end up equalling October 2006 which was part of that mildest autumn on record.

[reef]

I agree, I'm surprised this thread isn't more active. There's still a slight chance it could end up equalling October 2006 which was part of that mildest autumn on record.

After the 15.1C September this year, a combined CET of 20.4C from October and November would see 2011 surpass 1731 to be the 2nd warmest Autumn in the CET series. That would be quite something in a year with a record breaking spring and coldest summer for 23 years.

[TonyH]

So that would take roughly 8c for November, very do-able.

[Optimus Prime]

If October end up at 12.9c November needs to average 9.9c for 2006 to be equalled and for the Autumn as a whole to average 12.63c.

9.9c is very unlikely. But who knows, this year has been and will most likely be, exceptionally warm. If November and December come in average, the year would still come in at 10.43c. About the same as 2003/2004/2005 and 2007.

[Don]

Seems that silly mild month is going by fairly well unnoticed. Normally we'd be getting delight with temps around 16c at this time of year but after the hot start nobodies really noticing.

Indeed it is. 16C at the moment just feels rather normal instead of rather warm for the time of the year. A strange year indeed weatherwise with a cool summer sandwiched between a very warm spring and autumn. It's very likely now that this autumn will end up in the very warm category and probably one of the warmest on record as November's not looking likely to be a cold month.

[DR Hosking]

Philip Eden has 13.0c for 1-25th

[reef]

Hadley is 13.3C to the 25th, which is still equal to the record warmest October.

Its unlikely we'll beat the record set in 2001 by the end of the month, but anything above a 12.5C finish would see us in the top 10 in the CET series.

[Snowstorm1]

Hadley is 13.3C to the 25th, which is still equal to the record warmest October.

Its unlikely we'll beat the record set in 2001 by the end of the month, but anything above a 12.5C finish would see us in the top 10 in the CET series.

Not too bad Im feeling quite happy with my 11.7C punt I made but still looks I may be a bit out

Edited October 26, 2011 by Snowstorm1