Britain Faces A Mini Ice Age

[Optimus Prime]

Ok then, lets see how low long these temporary changes last.

As far as I can see it's already over...?

[egret]

Some interesting points in this thread and thanks to those who have posted the useful links.

About five or six years ago I read an article highlighting cyclical patterns in solar activity and UK winter temperatures and also suggesting a ten year period of cold winters would start in 2008.

The cyclical patterns looked pretty convincing in a historical context and the projection was therefore plausible, indicating that either this 'cold cycle' or the next one in 20 odd years time would be very cold indeed.

At a time when we were being told that we would be getting much warmer, I found these historic trends of interest and vowed to watch the winters of 2008 onwards. So far there have been three winters which I would consider to be colder than 'normal'. Time alone will tell if these extend to show a colder ten year period and also whether this is the coldest series of colder winters or if the next cycle in 20 years time is actually the coldest cycle.

All I can say thus far as the first three years of the predicted colder run of winters seems to have followed the prediction and it is also interesting that the Met Office are now discovering data which would seem to support the link of colder UK winters to low solar activity.

I believe some of the research work related to this (circa 2005?) came from Russia, a country who doubtless has great financial interest in predicting European winter temperatures. Does anyone have references to meteorological research and opinion emerging from Russia over the last few years?

[Crepuscular Ray]

Some interesting points in this thread and thanks to those who have posted the useful links.

About five or six years ago I read an article highlighting cyclical patterns in solar activity and UK winter temperatures and also suggesting a ten year period of cold winters would start in 2008.

The cyclical patterns looked pretty convincing in a historical context and the projection was therefore plausible, indicating that either this 'cold cycle' or the next one in 20 odd years time would be very cold indeed.

At a time when we were being told that we would be getting much warmer, I found these historic trends of interest and vowed to watch the winters of 2008 onwards. So far there have been three winters which I would consider to be colder than 'normal'. Time alone will tell if these extend to show a colder ten year period and also whether this is the coldest series of colder winters or if the next cycle in 20 years time is actually the coldest cycle.

All I can say thus far as the first three years of the predicted colder run of winters seems to have followed the prediction and it is also interesting that the Met Office are now discovering data which would seem to support the link of colder UK winters to low solar activity.

I believe some of the research work related to this (circa 2005?) came from Russia, a country who doubtless has great financial interest in predicting European winter temperatures. Does anyone have references to meteorological research and opinion emerging from Russia over the last few years?

If they were predicting a 10-year or so cold-winter period starting in 2008, I'd like to see a summary of the data they used. At that point it was not clear that solar cycle 24 would be a wimp.

Given that the Sun has perked up a bit this year, perhaps people who understand the science (I don't) will be making revised predictions shortly.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Usually, when the Express runs such hyped up headlines we get the exact opposite! This worries me greatly as I have loved the past 3 winters and would be well chuffed if we got a fourth :-)

[Eskimo]

Usually, when the Express runs such hyped up headlines we get the exact opposite! This worries me greatly as I have loved the past 3 winters and would be well chuffed if we got a fourth :-)

There's always a first when they are right

[Aaron]

If they keep spewing the same rubbish every year they will get it right eventually.

[nick sussex]

I do laugh at these over the top headlines.

Last winter was a case of all the cold and snow packed into one month, for most of the UK January and February were uneventful . The winter overall may have come in below average but IMO it wasn't that great.

[egret]

CR

I too do not recall the data predicting that the current solar maximum would be weak, I believe it was merely aligning temperature patterns alongside the cycle of sunspot activity.

From what I recall the conclusions related more to projections drawn from historic temperature records. Reference to patterns of sunspot activity and CO2 levels appeared to be there to highlight apparent relationships between cycles emerging from the data and possible cause for the temperature cycle, rather than an ability to forecast temperatures based upon predicted levels of sunspot activity. That is probably a correct basis as, during the period in history from which data was drawn, there had only been an ability to accurately record temperature ( the method of measuring levels of sunspot activity was rather rudimentary).

The mapping so produced appeared to show a pretty compelling relationship, albeit the temperature graph appeared to lag two or maybe three years behind the sunspot activity. I seem to recall that the contention was that either the period 2008 to 2018 or the period 2030 to 2040 (or thereabouts) would be similar to that experienced in what was known as the 'Little Ice Age'

Clearly weather in any given winter can override the general pattern, but to convince me that the hypothesis is correct I would expect to see reasonable correlation. I would suggest that eight winters out of 10 during the 2008-2018 period would need to be 'colder than normal' to strongly affirm the hypothesis.

My own interest in this is because I find it difficult to believe that serious abnormal weather patterns, such as those which caused major crop failures in the past , will not happen again. Mankind tends to be capable of ignoring even recent history. (why else would Americans chose to build a major city along the San Andreas fault line?)

Edited October 10, 2011 by egret

[Aaron]

I do laugh at these over the top headlines.

Last winter was a case of all the cold and snow packed into one month, for most of the UK January and February were uneventful . The winter overall may have come in below average but IMO it wasn't that great.

December 2010 was more than enough to compensate for the mediocre January and horrendous February.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

January was still below average at 3.5c and something many would have jumped at late 90s early 2000s.

[nick sussex]

December 2010 was more than enough to compensate for the mediocre January and horrendous February.

Well personally I would have preferred the snow and cold spread out, down here December was a good month, then January and February were utterly tedious. Of course I wouldn't expect alot of low level snow this far south but the previous winter here was far better.

It remains to be seen what will happen with La Nina this winter but some of these newspaper articles suggesting this was great for cold winters were wide of the mark and don't take into account all the other teleconnections.

[The watcher]

It's not so simple as trends/patterns for the UK, our weather is ever changing due to our size and placing, our extremities vary greatly. Calling a mini ice age 2 months prior to Winter is just pinning the tail on the Donkey. We are more than likely to see snow/ice/cold weather at somepoint in winter, we are also as likely to see very mild, unseasonal weather. More importantly, we are most likely to see Windy/Wet/Benign weather, especially for those stuck out West and up North. So far I'm yet to be convinced of anything other than the norm. Last year we had no clue until late November showed signs of deep cold brewing which managed to stick over/close by right the way through December, wether that is going to repeat itself remains to be seen.

[ZONE 51]

http://www.newscient...reme-europ.html

Its in every online science mag so this is real stuff, it really must be real because lots of respected scientists are producing articles on this, then of course the papers follow with what info they know.

Im researching this, very interesting, and last year i was looking at the link between the solar activity, the stratosphere and the jet stream.

    Solar dimming can trigger freezing winters: study

A cyclical drop in the sun's radiation can trigger unusually cold winters in parts of North America and Europe, scientists say, a finding that could improve long-range forecasts and help countries prepare for blizzards.

Scientists have known for a long time that the sun has an 11-year cycle during which radiation measured by sunspots on the surface reaches a peak then falls. But pinning down a clear link to weather has proved harder.

"Our research confirms the observed link between solar variability and regional winter climate," lead author Sarah Ineson of the UK Met Office told Reuters in an email. The study was published in the journal Nature Geoscience on Monday.

Her team focused on data from the recent solar minimum during 2008-10, a period of unusual calm for the sun and intense winters in the United States and parts of Europe that shut down air travel and disrupted businesses.

The researchers found that a reduction in ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun can affect high-altitude wind patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, triggering cold winters.

"While UV levels won't tell us what the day-to-day weather will do, they provide the exciting prospect of improved forecasts for winter conditions for months and even years ahead. These forecasts play an important role in long-term contingency planning," Ineson, a climate scientist, said.

Ineson and colleagues from the Imperial College London and the University of Oxford used satellite data that more accurately measures UV radiation from the sun and found a much greater variability than previously thought.

They found that in years of low activity, unusually cold air forms high in the atmosphere over the tropics. This causes a redistribution of heat in the atmosphere, triggering easterly winds that bring freezing weather and snow storms to northern Europe and the United States and milder weather to Canada and the Mediterranean.

When solar UV radiation is stronger, the opposite occurs.

Ineson's team used the data in a complex computer model that simulates long-term weather patterns. The model successfully reproduced what scientists have observed happening in the upper atmosphere during changes in solar radiation.

More study was needed, though. A key uncertainty in the experiment lay in the satellite data used, because it spans only a few years. "So questions remain concerning both accuracy and also applicability to other solar cycles," she said.

http://www.reuters.c...E7981MK20111009 Edited October 11, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Some more links below

http://www.thenewame...ope-this-winter - "Forecasters at Britain's national weather service are predicting another frigid winter in the Northern Hemisphere due to sunspot activity"

http://www.universet...oing-on-hiatus/ - "Are we headed into the 21st century version of the Maunder Minimum?"

Edited October 11, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

1748-9326_5_2_024001.pdf - Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?(by M Lockwood+other) Edited October 11, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[cyclonic happiness]

December 2010 was more than enough to compensate for the mediocre January and horrendous February.

for some!

All we had were a few hard frosts and 3" of snow which fell in 1" increments......very dissapointing!

[Aaron]

for some!

All we had were a few hard frosts and 3" of snow which fell in 1" increments......very dissapointing!

It was the second coldest December on record with a mean temperature of -0.7c, surely nobody can complain about that despite the lack of snow for some.. it was very cold nonetheless and most of us would have died for 3 inches of snow between 1996 - 2008!

[Paul]

We're moving away from the topic a tad here, can we try to keep it to the effects of solar activity etc please rather than how good/bad last winter was

[johnholmes]

Lastly, one can invert the title of this paper and

ask ‘Does the occurrence of lower/higher solar activity

make a cold/warm winter in Europe more likely (than the

climatological mean)?’ Our results strongly suggest that it

does, which has implications for seasonal predictions.

1748-9326_5_2_024001.pdf - Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?(by M Lockwood+other)

well I've just waded through this paper, most of its comments and conclusions I have no argument with. I am no mathematician but one of their graphs shows a line of 'best fit'. To me it does not seem to be so but like I say I'm no expert. Their final sentence is perhaps the one most folk will latch on to and for some b reason it will not paste where I want it too-hence it appearing at the top!!

[bedlington83]

Thanks for the link; it was very interesting, although I confess that the days when I could completely follow the mathematical argument are long behind me.

Perhaps a better quote given the title of the thread is that referenced at [2]. I.e. "a recent study of the past behaviour of cosmogenic isotopes suggests an 8% chance that the Sun could return to Maunder minimum conditions within the next 50 years."

To my mind an 8% chance doesn't warrant the suggestion that a new mini-ice age is likely or probable. I would regard 8% as a remote possibility. (I am, of course, conflating "maunder minimum" and mini-ice age, which may not be correct)

[Eugene]

January was still below average at 3.5c and something many would have jumped at late 90s early 2000s.

Exactly BFTP, god help them when the inevitable mild winters come back if they weren't pleased by last winter, only February was a let down, usually all three winters months are.

[knocker]

It keeps coming can't be smoke without fire ??

The first time I've glanced at this thread and low and behold I come across one of my all time hated expressions.

[Aaron]

Funnily enough, I was reading a Swedish newspaper called thelocal.se warning Swedes how they're in for another brutal winter similar to last year. We sometimes forget Sweden and Norway are not as cold as we think.

Edited October 14, 2011 by Aaron

[Weather-history]

A short article by Alex B McDowall from January 1909

The question of sunspot influence.

From the series of annual sunspot (1841-1907 Wolf and Wolfer's), picked out the 12 highest and the 12 lowest, noting the years. Called these groups A and B. Next, find the averages of various temperatures at Greenwich, in the years of group A and in those of B and compared the averages.

The group A contains (in descending order), 1870, 1848, 1871, 1872, 1847, 1849, 1860, 1859, 1893, 1894, 1861, 1892

Group B (in ascending order), 1901, 1878, 1856, 1902, 1879, 1889, 1855, 1888, 1890, 1867, 1900, 1843

Number of frost days in the year

A: 53.9

B: 63.2

A - B: -9.3

Number of frost days in first half

A: 36.1

B: 41.3

A - B: -5.2

Frost days in second half

A: 17.8

B: 21.8

A - B: -4.0

Frost days in December-February

A: 33.6

B: 40.1

A - B: -6.5

Days with 70F or more

A: 80.5

B: 66.2

A - B: +14.3

Days with 80F or more

A: 16.7

B: 9.9

A - B: +6.8

Mean temps of spring

A: 48.3

B: 46.5

A - B: +1.8

Mean temps of autumn

A: 50.1

B: 50.0

A - B: +0.1

Warm months in year

A: 6.5

B: 5.1

A -B: +1.4

These data seems to agree in indicating more warmth on the whole, when sunspots are numerous than when they are few. Of the seasons, (mean temp) I have given only spring and autumn (the others being dealt with otherwise), but it could be shown that any three contiguous months present the same relation. In autumn, the difference is least of all; February-April greatest (+2.1)

Edited October 14, 2011 by Mr_Data

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Its in every online science mag so this is real stuff, it really must be real because lots of respected scientists are producing articles on this, then of course the papers follow with what info they know.

Im researching this, very interesting, and last year i was looking at the link between the solar activity, the stratosphere and the jet stream.

Hi ESS

Some of us have been believers for a few years now. IMO there is without a doubt a direct link.

BFTP