Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[damianslaw]

Absolutely no signs of anything that cold for the next two weeks, one of the mildest winters for a while on course i think, i did forecast a mild winter but today even took me by surprise, i thought it was the summer solstice and not the winter solstice here in the balmy midlands.

A few days with temps in low teens in Dec are certainly not abnormal, indeed in decembers such as 1994, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2008 (run up to christmas), we saw many such days. The current conditions mean nothing for the rest of the winter.

Next week looks fairly average temp wise after a very mild start, and as we head towards New Year there is nothing in my opinion suggesting anything particularly mild - Meto forecast suggests rather average conditions with some slightly milder conditions from time to time but also colder conditions. Why the doom and gloom I don't know...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

always looked like a mild winter after 27 sept-03 0ct, mighty struggle to cool down after that, I just hope it can stay dry, tomorrow looks very wet, and I just feel we could be in for a very wet Jan and Feb, southerly tracking jet and all that

[Weather-history]

always looked like a mild winter after 27 sept-03 0ct, mighty struggle to cool down after that,

That with all due respect is just a ridiculous comment. The future weather was never going to be affected by this. Look at 1985 and that very warm spell over the same period and the fact that the November was cold and February was a bone chiller. The weather will go about its course and it is not dictated by any 7 day period at anytime of the year.

Edited December 22, 2011 by Mr_Data

[ARB]

I am surprised how some people assume if we haven't had any cold weather before christmas winter is over. I always thought of pre-christmas snow as a bonus, have a look at the stats for several winters in the 1980s and you will see that a mild december can be followed by a cold january, february or indeed both (1985).

[Aaron]

Yeah, I have to say, over the past 20 or so years, snow in December has not been very common before Christmas, and I'd dare say even March has been snowier then December over the past 2 decades.. just my observation though

Edited December 22, 2011 by Aaron

[Evening thunder]

Some people are getting ahead of themselves I think, based on some logic I've read, last winter should have continued in a 'big freeze' like December was.

Also how does 1 week or less of weather earlier in Autumn mean we will have a mild winter?

[snowingtequila]

Pretty happy with winter so far, 4 days of 100% snow cover at 9am. 5 inches of snow last friday. Hope it continues what's the problem?

[TEITS]

I am surprised how some people assume if we haven't had any cold weather before christmas winter is over. I always thought of pre-christmas snow as a bonus, have a look at the stats for several winters in the 1980s and you will see that a mild december can be followed by a cold january, february or indeed both (1985).

In all my 40yrs I can only remember one other Dec that was like 2010 and that was 1981. These really were exceptional events and even Dec 2009 was far from the norm. My memories of past winters is that cold spells never really began until after xmas and I still remember vividly the classic E,lys of the 1980s. The Dec 2010 cold spell was special but when it comes to severity nothing comes even close to Jan 1987, although this depends on your location. I can still remember the image of looking out of the classroom window at the blizzard outside and the teacher telling us if it didn't stop snowing by lunchtime we would be sent home. It never stopped snowing and continued non stop for another 48hrs. At the same time the wind was very strong and the max temp was -8C!!

[Bristawl Si]

In all my 40yrs I can only remember one other Dec that was like 2010 and that was 1981. These really were exceptional events and even Dec 2009 was far from the norm. My memories of past winters is that cold spells never really began until after xmas and I still remember vividly the classic E,lys of the 1980s. The Dec 2010 cold spell was special but when it comes to severity nothing comes even close to Jan 1987, although this depends on your location. I can still remember the image of looking out of the classroom window at the blizzard outside and the teacher telling us if it didn't stop snowing by lunchtime we would be sent home. It never stopped snowing and continued non stop for another 48hrs. At the same time the wind was very strong and the max temp was -8C!!

Same down here, TEITS.

December 1981 was indeed a cold and snowy month here, and so was January that winter ('82) i think. By February it was all over. Last December was truly exceptional as well.

The great blizzard of mid-Jan 1987 - an absolute corker - only blizzard on a par, in my lifetime, was New Years Eve 1978. Both had ferocious, screaming easterlies with beautiful powder snow - temps around minus 4 celsius. the blizzards went on for around 24 hours i think.

In fact winter 78/79 was the most severe in my memory for cold and snow - i think we had about 4 or 5 extreme blizzards from New Years Eve 78 to late January 79.

[MP-R]

Pretty happy with winter so far, 4 days of 100% snow cover at 9am. 5 inches of snow last friday. Hope it continues what's the problem?

The problem quite simply is that a lot of others haven't had one day of 100% snow cover let alone 4 lol.

The models don't show any cold in the short or long term but after tomorrow it's never really stupidly mild like the last 2 days either. Having said that, since the wobble in the jet has been shown around next Wednesday, particularly by the GFS, I reserve judgement about FI. If we can't get any amplification then at least a movement south of the jet would be welcomed as last week's weather was at least exciting if totally unsuccessful on the snow front here.

And, whoever said the models wouldn't chang in 4 days time 4 days ago was right (I think it was BFTP). :winky:

[damianslaw]

Yeah, I have to say, over the past 20 or so years, snow in December has not been very common before Christmas, and I'd dare say even March has been snowier then December over the past 2 decades.. just my observation though

Yes the last 2-3 decembers have clouded our memories somewhat I feel, most winters don't see sustained cold develop until after christmas, cold and snow before christmas is always a bonus in my book - a bit like a lengthy heatwave before the summer solstice. In Scotland and N England, March on average is just as snowy as December and on many an occasion has been colder - yes the days are notably longer, but SST's and the arctic are much colder in March than December, so for us in the north we still have a good 3 months of winter left still..

On average the coldest period of the winter is from mid Jan-mid Feb.

[leicsnow]

Yes the last 2-3 decembers have clouded our memories somewhat I feel, most winters don't see sustained cold develop until after christmas, cold and snow before christmas is always a bonus in my book - a bit like a lengthy heatwave before the summer solstice. In Scotland and N England, March on average is just as snowy as December and on many an occasion has been colder - yes the days are notably longer, but SST's and the arctic are much colder in March than December, so for us in the north we still have a good 3 months of winter left still..

On average the coldest period of the winter is from mid Jan-mid Feb.

I thought Spring provided further south in the "even larger teapot" with snow more than any other time?

[sundog]

Ive always thought of any snow before xmas being a bonus. Winter doesnt really get going until after xmas usually and thats what will hopefully happen this winter. It must be said though that in the last 20 odd years our Decembers do seem to have gotten colder overall,certainly colder then what they were like in the 80's for example.

[A Winter's Tale]

I thought Spring provided further south in the "even larger teapot" with snow more than any other time?

Lol. In the "even larger teapot", ala 2006/2007 et 2005/2006 et 2007/2008, I think just about everywhere got their best moments of the winter weather in March. Anyway, damianslaw didn't "specifically" say that it didn't count for the south. But of course, the north is likely to benefit more from these colder periods in Spring than the south because their more likely to get coldest and snowy weather as these areas are favourable for benefting from it.

Also, in a even larger teapot, in the south the winter would be like:

December - 0 Snowfalls

January - 1 Snowfall

February - 0 Snowfall or something

March - 1 or 2 Snowfalls

In the North:

December - 2 or 3 Snowfalls

January - 2 or 3 Snowfalls

February - 2 or 3 Snowfalls

March - 3 or 4 Snowfalls

So March in a even larger teapot might have a snowfall more than the other winter months (or have a better snowfall) or during quite a snowy March you might find that it's equall to the long term average snow days for a winter month.

[legritter]

EVENING ALL ,iv been asked to post in this thread ,can someone tell me the BEST place to look for past records for the lowest DAM number recorded along english channel . im doing a little research which i will post in new year . im hoping things could go our way in new year ,plenty of little things popping up on current charts , would love to see a winter on par with about half a dozen from the 1600 hundreds ,17th century .i bet there was many extreme spells not even properly documented from 1500 hundreds and iv read some old manuscrips from monks etc of people froze solid .i always think its happened before etc etc . odviousely the dam as only been known recently but knowing the possible would help

[Weather-history]

December 1981 was indeed a cold and snowy month here, and so was January that winter ('82) i think.

I don't think I have seen a single post on December 1976, that was a cold December with a CET of 2.0C but I never seen anyone mention that month apart from the fact that it was a bookie white Christmas. I can only assume it wasn't especially snowy.

[Ruzzi]

EVENING ALL ,iv been asked to post in this thread ,can someone tell me the BEST place to look for past records for the lowest DAM number recorded along english channel . im doing a little research which i will post in new year . im hoping things could go our way in new year ,plenty of little things popping up on current charts , would love to see a winter on par with about half a dozen from the 1600 hundreds ,17th century .i bet there was many extreme spells not even properly documented from 1500 hundreds and iv read some old manuscrips from monks etc of people froze solid .i always think its happened before etc etc . odviousely the dam as only been known recently but knowing the possible would help

I don't know if this will help you any, but it's an interesting wee link.

[Skip Spence]

I don't think I have seen a single post on December 1976, that was a cold December with a CET of 2.0C but I never seen anyone mention that month apart from the fact that it was a bookie white Christmas. I can only assume it wasn't especially snowy.

When people recall 1976 weather-wise, they're unlikely to be thinking 'cold'.

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online have updated there month ahead forecast and its bad news for the coldies, only short lived cooler spells and no snow from mid January once the milder air flow sets in again.

Valid from 29/12 to 25/01 2012

Not so sure of this one

Issued: Friday 23rd December 2011

Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

"Of winter's lifeless world each tree now seems a perfect part; yet each one holds summer's secret deep down within its heart." - Charles G. Stater

There has been some erosion of confidence in the patterns lately, which had performed well in indicating the overall anticipated flow; that is until now. The longer term flow had indicated that high pressure would control the period just prior to and over the Christmas period, ushering in a rather settled and potentially cold spell as a block formed, this pressure rise now looks set to be much further southwest so the inflection is somewhat different than anticipated.

Through the Christmas period with pressure low to the northwest or north and higher to the south or southwest, the flow will be from off the mid or North Atlantic, so alternating between mild and cool conditions rather than cold, showers or longer spells of rain for all areas and often rather windy, this perhaps offsetting the benefits of the maritime flow? The New Year period may see colder weather filtering south but remaining unsettled throughout the holiday period.

The opening of 2012 sees all areas unsettled and rather cool to cold with the threat of wintry precipitation increasing, this mainly showery in nature and although not exclusively the highest threat will be found across northern Britain and higher ground. Through the middle of January the Atlantic becomes more active once more with less cold conditions moving through on a brisk westerly with spells of wind and rain for all areas.

As the forecast period draws to a close there is the hint of a rise in pressure across southern Britain.

*29/12/11*

The flow through until this period sees conditions dictated by low pressure and a maritime orientated origin, low pressure in control.

It'll often be windy at times bring a cool mixture of showers or longer spells of rain, there will be the chance of wintry showers, this most likely across higher ground of the north and west, rain mostly to lower levels.

Temperatures are likely to seesaw as systems track close to the UK, the flow swinging from the west or northwest to the south-west at times, the benefits of this perhaps offset by the strength of wind.

*30/12/11 - 13/01/12*

During this period it looks as if low pressure will be in control for the most part, it'll be feeling increasingly cold too.

It seems as if low pressure will become slow moving and complex over the UK, stalled by higher pressure well to the east or northeast, all areas rather unsettled. There'll be a mix of precipitation through this period, generally of rain across the more southern areas of the country at first, however there is a risk of seeing something a bit wintrier in nature as conditions become colder.

*14/01/12 - 18/01/12 *

Turning les cold here as the flow swings around to the west or southwest, low pressure still in control so remaining unsettled.

It'll be windy for much of the time with low pressure close at hand, rain will affect all areas of the UK from time to time, some of it heavy particularly in the west and north where gales can be expected.

Southern areas of the UK should become drier as a pressure generally rises, with a ridge extending across southern Britain, remaining rather unsettled and breezy across the north and west with outbreaks of rain.

*19/01/12 - 24/01/12*

High pressure looks as if it'll be building across the southern half of the UK, so at least England and Wales become brighter, drier and settled with the risk of overnight mist, fog and frost increasing.

The north remains mixed at first but here too the conditions should settle later.

Simon & Capn Bob

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20111223

So if this comes off heating bills will be staying lower than normal for some.

[Backtrack]

That's a long shot given the stratosphere.

If anything, I would call for below average conditions from January onwards.

Can't see it staying mild much longer Gavin, sorry.

[Bristawl Si]

Weather Online have updated there month ahead forecast and its bad news for the coldies, only short lived cooler spells and no snow from mid January once the milder air flow sets in again.

So if this comes off heating bills will be staying lower than normal for some.

Doesn't surprise me at all - average winter is what i've expected. Anything 'more' will be a bonus, in these parts.

[phil nw.]

EVENING ALL ,iv been asked to post in this thread ,can someone tell me the BEST place to look for past records for the lowest DAM number recorded along english channel . im doing a little research which i will post in new year . im hoping things could go our way in new year ,plenty of little things popping up on current charts , would love to see a winter on par with about half a dozen from the 1600 hundreds ,17th century .i bet there was many extreme spells not even properly documented from 1500 hundreds and iv read some old manuscrips from monks etc of people froze solid .i always think its happened before etc etc . odviousely the dam as only been known recently but knowing the possible would help

I can`t give you the info. you specificaly asked for but you may find this link a good read.

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/wxevents.htm

It covers interesting UK weather events over the centurys.

[liam300]

Struggling to see reasons why you would predict that far ahead as it is very likely to be inaccurate?

[feb1991blizzard]

In all my 40yrs I can only remember one other Dec that was like 2010 and that was 1981. These really were exceptional events and even Dec 2009 was far from the norm. My memories of past winters is that cold spells never really began until after xmas and I still remember vividly the classic E,lys of the 1980s. The Dec 2010 cold spell was special but when it comes to severity nothing comes even close to Jan 1987, although this depends on your location. I can still remember the image of looking out of the classroom window at the blizzard outside and the teacher telling us if it didn't stop snowing by lunchtime we would be sent home. It never stopped snowing and continued non stop for another 48hrs. At the same time the wind was very strong and the max temp was -8C!!

Agreed, maybe 1991 was more memorable for me personally though only just (because i had waited 4 years for it), but in terms of severity 87 tops the lot and i experienced a massive dumping at school as well followed by nearly 2 weeks off school, 1991 february though they cancelled parents evening and we were sent home early just because it was forecast, which i had never seen before, we duly got the pasting in the end though nearly a foot in about 7 hours, i think 87 though i got over a foot, nothing even comes close to the buzz that those events gave me and nothing ever will i suspect, although if i had been living here since the start of 2009 then i may of even topped those!

[Aaron]

January 87 was cold here, but nothing special snow-wise, and the cold didn't last for very long, it was just short and intense.. so I'd take December 2010 any time

Weather Online have updated there month ahead forecast and its bad news for the coldies, only short lived cooler spells and no snow from mid January once the milder air flow sets in again.

So if this comes off heating bills will be staying lower than normal for some.

Weren't they forecasting pretty cold Jan and Feb? I'm starting to lose all confidence in these LRF's because they chop and change so much.

I won't be saving on heating bills though, a damp 11c feels just as cold as a dry -10C

Actually, re-reading it, it doesn't even mention the word mild but mentions the word cold more then twice! Are we reading the same thing?

Edited December 24, 2011 by Aaron