Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[Aaron]

ALL winter months were below average

Not here they weren't.

Netweather Members winter trip to Siberia?! LOL

Nah not Siberia.. it isn't snowy enough.

[bobbydog]

re: liams post

a crumb of comfort/hope for us cold lovers.

joe b's forecast issued about this time last year on accuweather:

http://www.accuweath...-winter-f-1.asp

as you can see, he predicted a milder than average winter for us, it may have been a non-eventful second half but december didnt match his forecast at all!

[kold weather]

Fair enough Aaron but in the end the CET is the best measure we have when it comes to temps and the CET was below average for all of them, not by much (Jan was coldest at 3.0) but it was a below average winter. Cold overall but nothing too exceptional i'll admit.

[ukpaul]

Does anyone know what Accuweather forecasted in advance of Winter 2010/11?

Accuweather last year said - "Not as Harsh as last year" (i.e. 2009/10)

Not exactly accurate.

"Across northern Europe, snowfall and temperatures are expected to average closer to normal in London, while areas toward Glasgow and Dublin experience slightly above-average temperatures and snowfall just a little below normal." etc.

Here's the link - http://www.accuweath...-winter-f-1.asp

EDIT: Beaten to it again, oh well. It is astonishing just how regularly poor forecasters are at this range yet still we think they hold the secrets of the universe.....

Edited October 23, 2011 by ukpaul

[Liam J]

I would rather take an average British winter if that meant the more interesting and exciting weather was spread out over the 3 months and not just all crammed into one month like last year! Post December was painfully slow and boring weatherwise, not something I want a reapeat of tbh.

Edited October 23, 2011 by Liam J

[Paul]

Accuweather (I believe) use the ECMWF products quite widely. The ECM seasonal forecast went for a milder than average winter last year appear to be going for something similar this year..

[Liam J]

Last winter wasn't exceptionally cold overall with the CET for the three months being +3.1c. If we took December out of the equation the CET would have been around +5.0c, So 3.1c isn't all that cold in the bigger picture, we had the coldest December for some 100 years yes, but not the coldest winter as a whole which was only the 112th coldest since CET records began.

Had we not had a sub zero CET recorded over December last year then the overall winter would have been above average.

Edited October 23, 2011 by Liam J

[Aaron]

That's the point.. only 2009/2010 was overall very cold.

[Partholon]

I would rather take an average British winter if that meant the more interesting and exciting weather was spread out over the 3 months and not just all crammed into one month like last year! Post December was painfully slow and boring weatherwise, not something I want a reapeat of tbh.

I'm the opposite. I'd be happy to have a benign winter overall again, if it meant we had a sustained period of extreme/record cold again at some point during this winter. A two-three day Arctic outbreak at different intervals, followed by a temporary ridge of HP from the Atlantic, during the winter just doesn't cut it anymore for me. The bar has been raised!

[Isolated Frost]

But we DID have a sub-zero December. You could easily take out Feb and make figures from that. Simple fact is Dec-Feb is winter. And 1988-2008 wise, 2010-11 was a brilliant winter; about 1.5c below the 71-00 average.

[Aaron]

But it shows we haven't really had three very cold winters on the trot.. look at all those mild winters we had prior to 2008/2009, on the trot.

Edited October 23, 2011 by Aaron

[Teesdale]

I would rather take an average British winter if that meant the more interesting and exciting weather was spread out over the 3 months and not just all crammed into one month like last year! Post December was painfully slow and boring weatherwise, not something I want a reapeat of tbh.

Totally agree, after the 3rd of Dec last year little happened in the way of active weather here. All the action was eslewhere. Roll on an average winter.

Edited October 23, 2011 by Teesdale

[Aaron]

Wouldn't an average winter be even more uneventful in terms of active winter weather? Well it would here.

I'd happily take a repeat of December 2010, the latter half of the month was virtually snowless, but very cold, and I'll take cold!

[Paul]

Last winter wasn't exceptionally cold overall with the CET for the three months being +3.1c. If we took December out of the equation the CET would have been around +5.0c, So 3.1c isn't all that cold in the bigger picture, we had the coldest December for some 100 years yes, but not the coldest winter as a whole which was only the 112th coldest since CET records began.

Had we not had a sub zero CET recorded over December last year then the overall winter would have been above average.

Isn't that the equivalent of saying it would have been dry today it hadn't have rained? The overall CET last winter was what it was, regardless of what happened in each individual month.

[bobbydog]

But it shows we haven't really had three very cold winters on the trot.. look at all those mild winters we had prior to 2008/2009, on the trot.

ok lets forget 'cold' winters, lets call them 'memorable' winters.

we've had 3 memorable winters on the trot

now... back to this one...

[Eskimo]

"Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion" Clue is in the title!

[Weather-history]

Last winter wasn't exceptionally cold overall with the CET for the three months being +3.1c. If we took December out of the equation the CET would have been around +5.0c,

It always baffles me why some members say take December out of the equation and the rest of winter would have been this. They seem to forget that January was not a mild month. The only mild month last winter was February but they give the impression that it was mild from the New Year onwards. The 5.0C averaged between the January and the February is a distortion in itself and doesn't reflect the true picture in the same way they argue that the overall CET for the winter doesn't reflect the true picture.

Last winter was composed of a very cold, an average and a very mild month.

Edited October 23, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Partholon]

The reality is that in 20 year times most people will remember that we had an extremely cold and snowy month in December 2010/11, they won't have in mind that the CET for that winter finished up average overall.

[Evening thunder]

Personally I have very little idea what this winter will bring, I will just add one note though, that is I tend to think of probability with weather a bit like probability with throwing a dice. Just because you've had a six so many times before doesn't effect the probability of the next throw being a six (1 in 6 chance), Or it being an odd number (50% chance) etc..

So assuming the weather/climate was a completely random system this should be the case. Of course there are probably various other factors and perhaps loose trends/cycles with the weather, but this probably isn't far from the truth.

What I am trying to say is that viewed on it's own having 3 cold winters (or winters with notable cold spells) in a row doesn't mean we won't get another cold winter, and it also doesn't make it more likely that we will.

[Strider]

It always baffles me why some members say take December out of the equation and the rest of winter would have been this. They seem to forget that January was not a mild month. The only mild month last winter was February but they give the impression that it was mild from the New Year onwards. The 5.0C averaged between the January and the February is a distortion in itself and doesn't reflect the true picture in the same way they argue that the overall CET for the winter doesn't reflect the true picture.

Last winter was composed of a very cold, an average and a very mild month.

Yes, people say January was warm because it was virtually snowless for most.

I have to say I'm fearful for this winter. I can't see it being as interesting as the last few atm.

[Snowstorm1]

To get some positivity into this thread here is my winter prediction

December = CET -0.7C Extreme Cold

Very Below Average Precipitation

January = 0.7C Very Cold

Below Average Precipitation

February = 2.2C Cold but getting warmer

Just Below Average Precipitation

Published 16th October 2011

Edited October 23, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[bobbydog]

The reality is that in 20 year times most people will remember that we had an extremely cold and snowy month in December 2010/11, they won't have in mind that the CET for that winter finished up average overall.

exactly my point - a memorable winter doesn't necessarily equal a cold one overall

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Personally I have very little idea what this winter will bring, I will just add one note though, that is I tend to think of probability with weather a bit like probability with throwing a dice. Just because you've had a six so many times before doesn't effect the probability of the next throw being a six (1 in 6 chance), Or it being an odd number (50% chance) etc..

So assuming the weather/climate was a completely random system this should be the case. Of course there are probably various other factors and perhaps loose trends/cycles with the weather, but this probably isn't far from the truth.

What I am trying to say is that viewed on it's own having 3 cold winters (or winters with notable cold spells) in a row doesn't mean we won't get another cold winter, and it also doesn't make it more likely that we will.

Totally agree with you on this Stormmad26, I believe its a safe call to predict a "milder winter" for most of the folks on here, it is still too early to have an over arching view of what winter 20011/12 will or will not be.

Still its interesting to see the masses thoughts!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

To get some positivity into this thread here is my winter prediction

December = CET -0.7C Extreme Cold

Very Below Average Precipitation

January = 0.7C Very Cold

Below Average Precipitation

February = 2.2C Cold but getting warmer

Just Below Average Precipitation

Published 16th October 2011

hope that comes off another legendary december, and cold Jan,

[AderynCoch]

One thing that's worth keeping in mind is that an average winter is likely to give most places periods of cold and snow. Even in my relatively mild location snowless winters are unusual. We had so many mild winters from 1988-2008 that it's become easy to think of them as average: in actual fact, both 08/09 and 10/11 weren't that far off the long-term average overall, with only 09/10 being placed firmly in the "cold" category. Even cold months are rarely cold all the way though (January 2010 for example was very cold for the first 10 days or so, then pretty much average for the rest of the month). Last winter the cold/mild balance was unusually skewed though.

So I'll settle for an average winter, despite preferring cold. Just no repeat of 07/08 please.

Edited October 23, 2011 by AderynCoch