Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[Aaron]

Parts of the South East got a red warning in February 2009.

[Gavin P]

No it isn't impossible for a snowless winter to occur, it just hasn't occurred yet.

I remember 91-92 as an entirely snowless winter here.

Edited October 22, 2011 by Gavin P

[Jason T]

Where abouts got the red warning? And how much did that area recieve?

Home counties or some,Hertfordshire,luton,watford etc. As for depth average 10 to 14 inches, It shut down travel networks,But created big big problems for emergency services.

[Aaron]

That wasn't really worth a red warning when nowhere in Scotland or North East England got a red warning, nor did Sheffield when it got 40 cm + of snow, and that's in one of the UK's largest cities.

[Jason T]

That wasn't really worth a red warning when nowhere in Scotland or North East England got a red warning, nor did Sheffield when it got 40 cm + of snow, and that's in one of the UK's largest cities.

Maybe but down south,4 inches is chaos. It was a averafe figure and i guess probably more in depth in places.

[summer blizzard]

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

September PDO data is in and September was the 4th most negative September in the past 111 years. Tri-monthly values for July-September are also at near record negative levels.

August-September PDO analogues are...

2010

2001

2000

1999

1998

1994

1975

1970

1962

1961

1960

1959

1952

1950

On the basis of all data now in for the August-September period we can now see an analogue pattern developing...

Primary

1970 (QBO+AO+MEI+PDO)

SECONDARY

2007 (QBO+AO+MEI)

2000 (MEI+QBO+PDO)

1999 (MEI+AO+PDO)

Tertiary

2010 (PDO+MEI)

1998 (PDO+MEI)

1996 (MEI+QBO)

1985 (MEI+AO)

1975 (PDO+MEI)

1967 (MEI+AO)

1962 (PDO+QBO)

1961 (PDO+MEI)

1960 (PDO+MEI)

1950 (PDO+AO)

[summer blizzard]

I calculated for the winter as a whole, not the best sign.

Temp...

Primary

1970: 4.4C (0.1C below average)

SECONDARY

2007: 5.6C (1.1C above average)

2000: 4.5C (Average)

1999: 5.4C (0.9C above average)

Tertiary

2010: 3.1C (1.4C below average)

1998: 5.4C (0.9C above average)

1996: 4.0C (0.5C below average)

1985: 2.9C (1.6C below average)

1975: 5.2C (0.7C above average)

1967: 3.5C (1.0C below average)

1962: -0.3C (4.8C below average)

1961: 4.9C (0.4C above average)

1960: 4.6C (0.1C above average)

1950: 5.1C (0.6C above average)

Primary Average: 4.4C (0.1C below average)

Secondary Average: 5.2C (0.7C above average)

Tertiary Average: 3.8C (0.7C below average)

Overall average: 4.6C (0.1C above average)

Edited October 22, 2011 by summer blizzard

[ZONE 51]

Something about snow..the size of the flake is inportant, large flakes cover ground quicker and is more heavier at weaker precipitation rates, large flakes fall at higher temperatures, a milder upper air layer can result in rain even if its cold down at ground. some of the biggest snowfalls have come on atlantic fronts moving into cold air. ESS

[kmanmx]

Something about snow..the size of the flake is inportant, large flakes cover ground quicker and is more heavier at weaker precipitation rates, large flakes fall at higher temperatures, a milder upper air layer can result in rain even if its cold down at ground. some of the biggest snowfalls have come on atlantic fronts moving into cold air. ESS

Nothing worse than fine snow that lasts for hours and amounts to nothing.

I'm optimistic for a snowy winter for once. I say for once, because i live in Leicester. And being far away from pretty much every coast line is a great way to avoid snow fall! the most we got here last winter was 3inches. But i'm hoping for a bit of luck for this winter. I know it's not looking great so far for a snowy winter, but as they tend to struggle with forecasts more than a few days out i tend to not take to much notice to these things.

I will never forget the Snow i saw when i was on holiday at Whistler, Canada in November 2009. That was a record breaking november for them, 5.6meters in 30 days ! Like i said, never will forget...

Edited October 23, 2011 by kmanmx

[Eugene]

Its looking like the current european block will help to give us a cool, quiet, frosty at night period, GFS ensembles are firming up on this.

[bluearmy]

Nothing worse than fine snow that lasts for hours and amounts to nothing.

I'm optimistic for a snowy winter for once. I say for once, because i live in Leicester. And being far away from pretty much every coast line is a great way to avoid snow fall! the most we got here last winter was 3inches. But i'm hoping for a bit of luck for this winter. I know it's not looking great so far for a snowy winter, but as they tend to struggle with forecasts more than a few days out i tend to not take to much notice to these things.

I will never forget the Snow i saw when i was on holiday at Whistler, Canada in November 2009. That was a record breaking november for them, 5.6meters in 30 days ! Like i said, never will forget...

the sixties,seventies and eighties delivered plenty of snowy winters to leicester. you were just unlucky last year. there are plenty of sypnotic winter patterns that make the east midlands a great place for snow.

[Isolated Frost]

Yes, NElies often deliver for basically all of eastern england and scotland - apart from maybe norfolk and suffolk, and the far south east. The home counties and southern midlands generally do well from wash streamers with the correct alignment.

[sebastiaan1973]

http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

September PDO data is in and September was the 4th most negative September in the past 111 years. Tri-monthly values for July-September are also at near record negative levels.

On the basis of all data now in for the August-September period we can now see an analogue pattern developing...

Primary

1970 (QBO+AO+MEI+PDO)

Thanks for sharing this analogue. Over here in the Netherlands this winter was cold. It achieved a Hellman of 131 (calculating all negative daily averages together). E.g. 2010 achieved 94.7. So 1970 is quite impressive.

http://www.knmi.nl/k...n/hellmann.html

Difference with 1970 and this winter is El Nino (1970).

Edited October 23, 2011 by sebastiaan1973

[Jason T]

Such speculation for this coming winter,However some may have read this already.

UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Winter 2011/2012 UPDATED 22/10/11

A mild winter on the cards?

This winter certainly won't be remembered or be authenticated as being mild, neither will it be dominated by periods of mild weather. Some moderation at times, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK.

As in my last update on the 2^ndSeptember 2011.

I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, and JANUARY at present.

THIS STILL STANDS!

I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions and Scotland throughout this winter. Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.

THIS STILL STANDS!

I also expect NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY, and FEBRUARY to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame.

THIS STILL STANDS!

This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.

November 2011

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in November: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.

December 2011

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in December: Scotland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.

January 2012

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in January: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire.

February 2012

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in February: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

Edited October 23, 2011 by silver line

[AWD]

Very very brave man to stick by that!!

With November fastly approaching, and an Atlantic dominated picture looking increasingly likely, I think a quick update and amendment will soon be needed!!

[Tim Bland]

I wouldn't pin your hope on James Madden who is a truck driving 24yr old with no qualifications. He was the one who fed the press stories of blizzards this month! I just hope if he is proven well of the mark this year then they don't print his waffle next year!

[ukpaul]

I wouldn't pin your hope on James Madden who is a truck driving 24yr old with no qualifications. He was the one who fed the press stories of blizzards this month! I just hope if he is proven well of the mark this year then they don't print his waffle next year!

To be fair he said October or November, of course the press will then use that to say 'heavy snowfall in October' but that's the press for you.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Very very brave man to stick by that!!

With November fastly approaching, and an Atlantic dominated picture looking increasingly likely, I think a quick update and amendment will soon be needed!!

Atlantic driven doesn't mean mild and above average. If the track of storms is south or we have a NW/SE axis this will bring below average.

BFTP

[Isolated Frost]

Correct bftp - polar maritime air is easily possible if lows squeeze east and let the arctic floodgates; but I do hope we get a mild Nov and winter to put egg on Madden/PWS/sensationalists' faces.

[syed2878]

I don't think we should write off j.m just yet. He is sticking by his forecast so lets all just waight and see. Proof of the pudding will be in the eating. Sorry for any spelling mistakes.

I don't think we should write off j.m just yet. He is sticking by his forecast so lets all just waight and see. Proof of the pudding will be in the eating. Sorry for any spelling mistakes.

[Snowstorm1]

Correct bftp - polar maritime air is easily possible if lows squeeze east and let the arctic floodgates; but I do hope we get a mild Nov and winter to put egg on Madden/PWS/sensationalists' faces.

Now now need for that type of language (actually wanting mild) just kidding but I dont get why most people this year are so downbeat towards cold weather chances it isn't November yet and the way people are going youd think its february and we haven't had a shot at a cold spell yet

[Don]

Now now need for that type of language (actually wanting mild) just kidding but I dont get why most people this year are so downbeat towards cold weather chances it isn't November yet and the way people are going youd think its february and we haven't had a shot at a cold spell yet

This is very true. Lots on here have been downbeat (myself included) about cold prospects this Winter. I think the main problem is that because we've had three decent Winters (which to be honest have been nothing short of excellent when you consider that they came after a 20 year period of mainly mild Winters!), even an average Winter would seem rather poor, when this time 3 years ago we would have thought of an average Winter as being rather good! I don't expect a cold Winter this year but hope that we're not in for another 88/89 or 06/07 and that we dont get to mid February without having a decent cold snap and not yet seen a flake of snow in the south!

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.accuweath...st-20112012.asp

Typical NAO+ winter

[karyo]

http://www.accuweath...st-20112012.asp

Typical NAO+ winter

Nightmare material! However, a city break in Sofia or Bucharest sounds like a good idea this winter!

Karyo

[sebastiaan1973]

In my opinion Accuweather haven't given a good explanation for the development of the West European Ridge.