Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[Isolated Frost]

Anyone know when the UK last experienced four colder than average winters on the bounce (if ever)?

62-65 I think? Mid 80's had a few coldies in there aswell, but I think it was the early 60's.

[summer blizzard]

thanks for the response I am hoping to find time both to answer 1 or 2 of the points you raise and also to do a similar check with the NAO data to what I did with the AO.

Once I have done both, and checked that my airthmetic(not my strong point) is correct) I will then take the winter months of the CET that are, ? say 2.0C perhaps, below the long term average, and see how they fit in with the AO and NAO data.

All pretty intereresting though I'm sure you will agree. Mind you we are both probably looking for something that does not exist-that is a workable link to getting a reasonable idea of winter temperatures before the start of winter, but what the heck, as I did over 50 years ago its fun trying!

Just looking at our data set below (Highly negative Autumn months followed by highly negative winter months)...

October

2009 - December 2009 and January 2010 were 2C and 2.8C below the 1971-2000 average

2006

2002

1981 - December 1981 was 4.8C below the 1971-2000 average

1979

1968 - December 1968 and February 1969 were 2.1C and 3.2C below the 1971-2000 average

1966

1960

November

2002

2000

1985 - February 1986 was 5.3C below the 1971-2000 average

1968 - December 1968 and February 1969 were 2.1C and 3.2C below the 1971-2000 average

1965

1962 - Winter 1963 was the coldest since 1740 and is the third coldest on record - needs no description

1959

1957

1955 - February 1956 was 4.4C below the 1971-2000 average

1952 - December 1952 was 2.4C below the 1971-2000 average

Note that this data set only has the months at least 2C below the 1971-2000 average written next to.

So of 24 winter months from the October data set, 4 were at least 2C below average. This is a percentage of 16% rounded.

Of the November data set of 30 winter months, 6 were at least 2C below average. This is a percentage of 20% rounded.

We would only be able to draw a weak conclusion at best however if we were to calculate the percentage of winter months since 1950 which were at least 2C below average then we would be able to ascertain whether or not a highly negative AO in Autumn does increase the chances of a very cold winter month by comparing the percentages.

Decembers 1962 and 1968 were excluded from the results because they did not see monthly values deeper than -1 (although they were both negative AO months).

Its strange paul hodson saying it's gona be a mild winter when only 2-3 months ago he was saying its going to be a harsh winter. So the question is. Is he just covering him self in case of a mild winter?

He did not say that it would be a mild winter, just that we should not rule out the possibility. He actually stated that a colder than average winter was the more likely outcome.

[syed2878]

Sorry guys gave u guys a bit of wrong info regarding paul hodson i was looking at the wrong blog.

[mikeocarroll]

Anyone know when the UK last experienced four colder than average winters on the bounce (if ever)?

As far as I can see the last time there were 4 winters with CET of 3.5 or less (3.5 was the 2009 winter CET, 2010 & 2011 were lower) was 1808-11, though it happened quite frequently in the 17th & 18th centuries.*

However having had 3 such winters in the last 3 years, there is as good a chance as there's been in a long time that such a 4-in-a-row will occur. If you flip an unbiased coin 4 times in a row it is unlikely that you will get 4 heads. But if you have already got 3 heads, then the 4 in a row is a 50% chance. Weather & climate don't work quite so neatly, but I just wanted to demonstrate how probability works.

*note, to actually answer the question, there were 4 winters below average 1962-5, certainly below the 1971-2000 average, and I think probably the rolling average at the time, but not sure (note: this sentence has been edited since original post)

Edited October 20, 2011 by mikeocarroll

[Roger J Smith]

Interesting info about the developing winter pattern over North America in this forum:

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/

Would recommend reading posts made since August rather than just the most recent days which are discussing the annual forecast contest that they run. The more interesting stuff about the winter pattern can be found down the page (it's one of those one-page never-ending blog formats).

The consensus seems to be that a mild pattern will develop either over or just east of the U.S. east coast with a trough likely further west, and a fast flow across the North Atlantic. I don't think this really eliminates too many outcomes for western Europe but it gives you some interesting perspectives on long-term changes in the NAO etc.

[Cloud 10]

Interesting info about the developing winter pattern over North America in this forum:

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/

Would recommend reading posts made since August rather than just the most recent days which are discussing the annual forecast contest that they run. The more interesting stuff about the winter pattern can be found down the page (it's one of those one-page never-ending blog formats).

The consensus seems to be that a mild pattern will develop either over or just east of the U.S. east coast with a trough likely further west, and a fast flow across the North Atlantic. I don't think this really eliminates too many outcomes for western Europe but it gives you some interesting perspectives on long-term changes in the NAO etc.

An interesting read,thanks for posting.

Well done for winning!

[Freezing-Point]

As far as I can see the last time there were 4 winters with CET of 3.5 or less (3.5 was the 2009 winter CET, 2010 & 2011 were lower) was 1808-11, though it happened quite frequently in the 17th & 18th centuries.*

However having had 3 such winters in the last 3 years, there is as good a chance as there's been in a long time that such a 4-in-a-row will occur. If you flip an unbiased coin 4 times in a row it is unlikely that you will get 4 heads. But if you have already got 3 heads, then the 4 in a row is a 50% chance. Weather & climate don't work quite so neatly, but I just wanted to demonstrate how probability works.

*note, to actually answer the question, there were 4 winters below average 1962-5, certainly below the 1971-2000 average, and I think probably the rolling average at the time, but not sure (note: this sentence has been edited since original post)

Here is my opinon...

We have seen a trend to colder winter conditions since 2005 which makes me think its highly unlikely to get a mild winter this year.

We all remember the mild winters of the 90's and early 2000's. Who would have bet this would have happened, but it did. I recall people saying similar things then to on this thread - that the law of averages means a cold winter is likely. Well it never happened, but a gradual trend to cold has.

Colder than average, but with not the severity of the spells last winter is my bet.

[Isolated Frost]

Here is my opinon...

We have seen a trend to colder winter conditions since 2005 which makes me think its highly unlikely to get a mild winter this year.

We all remember the mild winters of the 90's and early 2000's. Who would have bet this would have happened, but it did. I recall people saying similar things then to on this thread - that the law of averages means a cold winter is likely. Well it never happened, but a gradual trend to cold has.

Colder than average, but with not the severity of the spells last winter is my bet.

good to see you back Freezing Point hope to talk on the regionals come winter!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I don't know about everyone else here but the suspense about the upcoming winter is killing me. All the talk of colder than average/milder than last year etc. My own personal perspective is that the likely hood of December been as cold as last year is pretty slim as last year was exceptional by anyones standards. Taking this into account I would not get too disheartened if we fail to get much in the way of cold and snow during December, perhaps January or February could deliever for a change? After all, if the correct setup materialises then surely these months should be colder as the continent/Arctic should would be colder. I just wish I could look into a crystal ball and find out. Winter can't come soon enough for me. Heres to the long nights of following the model output discussion treads when pages are filled up in no time with lots of excitement all round

[scotty_boy_winter]

He hasn't made an outlandish claim nor brought out a forecast to the media or public. This is what is being talked about in confidence. The met will not bring out an early forecast again as they have stated. Just giving you an early taste on there current "opinions"

As for mr madden. I know this guy and he has no meteorogical background. He got an A in geography when he did his A levels so don't believe a word he says. He is an absolute conman, if anyone's reading his forecasters they are wasting there time

So, wait, are you saying this year will be a mild one, or just not colder than last year? Which one is it?

I'm very doubtful of what you're saying, unless you have valid sources. No Met Office senior forecaster would make such an outlandish claim, especially so early in the season.

Anyway, a primarily Atlantic dominated winter does not mean a cold spell won't occur at any point.. last winter was largely average - above average except December.

[Aaron]

According to Paul Hudson, we cannot rule out a mild or average winter, but there is a good chance this winter will be cooler than average, obviously not on the levels we saw in December.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

According to Paul Hudson, we cannot rule out a mild or average winter, but there is a good chance this winter will be cooler than average, obviously not on the levels we saw in December.

Very unlikely, but how cool would it be to have all that snow on the ground again throughout the whole of December again? I do agree with your point though

[ukpaul]

how cool would it be to have all that snow on the ground again throughout the whole of December again?

Below freezing?

I'll get my coat.....

[Liam J]

What are the chances of having another cold spell like last year? It would have to be something special as last December was the coldest in over 100 years, hard to beat.

[karyo]

Interesting info about the developing winter pattern over North America in this forum:

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/

Would recommend reading posts made since August rather than just the most recent days which are discussing the annual forecast contest that they run. The more interesting stuff about the winter pattern can be found down the page (it's one of those one-page never-ending blog formats).

The consensus seems to be that a mild pattern will develop either over or just east of the U.S. east coast with a trough likely further west, and a fast flow across the North Atlantic. I don't think this really eliminates too many outcomes for western Europe but it gives you some interesting perspectives on long-term changes in the NAO etc.

Thanks for posting this. The picture of a fast flow across North Atlantic doesn't seem good for cold to me! :-(

Karyo

[scotty_boy_winter]

This was the general theme of things that the senior forecasters were speaking about at the met

The weather over the other side of the Atlantic will have a massive bearing on our winter this year

Thanks for posting this. The picture of a fast flow across North Atlantic doesn't seem good for cold to me! :-(

Karyo

[karyo]

This was the general theme of things that the senior forecasters were speaking about at the met

The weather over the other side of the Atlantic will have a massive bearing on our winter this year

I am not doubting this, I am just saying it doesn't look good for our side of the world. We need a blocked Atlantic for wintry weather or a high pressure on top of us for dry cold.

Karyo

[Aaron]

Probably not the biggest factor, considering parts of Canada had record mildness in December while we experienced record cold.

[scotty_boy_winter]

Yeah I agree, I don't think the set-up is going to play ball for high latitude blocking. It looks a poor set-up on Americas side and also the stratosphere could be against us. I noticed a distinct lack of ozone this year which will aid the polar vortex. Things starting to look like the late 90's early 00's again

I am not doubting this, I am just saying it doesn't look good for our side of the world. We need a blocked Atlantic for wintry weather or a high pressure on top of us for dry cold.

Karyo

[Aaron]

You're on your own in terms of thinking that scotty boy.. but as I said already, nothing is written in stone, a lot between now and December can and probably will change a lot.

I could give numerous examples of the US experience record cold and snow, in the decade just gone, while we have a benign or mild winter. I personally don't think their weather greatly effects us.

Edited October 20, 2011 by Aaron

[scotty_boy_winter]

Not really, the met believe this too and the European bodies forecast mentioned this too. As I said it could all be wrong. No one can make an accurate forecast this far out. It's all opinion based on current data. Again I hope its wrong I love the cold and snow

You're on your own in terms of thinking that scotty boy.. but as I said already, nothing is written in stone, a lot between now and December can and probably will change a lot.

I could give numerous examples of the US experience record cold and snow, in the decade just gone, while we have a benign or mild winter. I personally don't think their weather greatly effects us.

[rug]

No offence meant and sorry for straying off topic , just think it is too early to call one way or another but the more the normal the weather in November the more confident I am of a normal ( not mild ) winter .

[Liam J]

It's been leaked - the Meto expect an Atlantic dominated winter, what do you make of that?

Any forecast at this stage is just that and can go wrong which has been proved on many occasions, the Meto did very well last year picking up on the cold spell and handled it with expertise - very commendable performance for the Meto.

Edited October 20, 2011 by Liam J

[rug]

Not sure I agree that the met called it well last year , seem to remember they forecast it woul snow when it was already snowing outside.

[scotty_boy_winter]

Yeah they did very well with the cold spell last year. I believe it's the way they will continue to forecast. They've been burnt too many times.

As I have repeated several times by the way. The met havn't forecast a thing. Just general consensus I've been told over several whiskeys and a game of cards

It's been leaked - the Meto expect an Atlantic dominated winter, what do you make of that?

Any forecast at this stage is just that and can go wrong which has been proved on many occasions, the Meto did very well last year picking up on the cold spell and handled it with expertise - very commendable performance for the Meto.