Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[Aaron]

Even in mild winters I do good on the snow front, so either way I win.

Hey, I saw a 40 cm snowfall in January 1995, 1994/1995 wasn't really cold..

Edited October 22, 2011 by Aaron

[stewfox]

Even in a very, very mild winter, some monster snowfalls can still occur

Above 2000ft in the Highlands sure.

Very mild and they dont even have to be very very mild winters I'm afraid generally bring no snow to low lying areas, unless you count a flake late March

[Aaron]

February 1998 was very mild - I saw snow.

February 2008 was very mild - I saw snow.

[Isolated Frost]

Hi stewfox, my point was you CAN get monster snowfalls even in very mild winters, in the UK.

[Liam J]

Even in mild winters I do good on the snow front, so either way I win.

Hey, I saw a 40 cm snowfall in January 1995, 1994/1995 wasn't really cold..

So if we had a mild winter and the temp stayed above 10-12c by day and never fell below say 5/6C at night time during the winter (highly unlikely) you would see snow?

Edited October 22, 2011 by Liam J

[Aaron]

But that's never happened before, the temperature will fall low enough for snow at some point, a snowless winter has never occurred here

Edited October 22, 2011 by Aaron

[Liam J]

But that's never happened before, the temperature will fall low enough for snow at some point, a snowless winter has never occurred here

I wouldn't call it mild if the temp falls low enough to snow, a snowless winter has never occured in Leeds (are you sure) - first time for everything, winter 2011/12 may be the year

Edited October 22, 2011 by Liam J

[Isolated Frost]

I don't think Leeds is as cold or as snowy as you make it out to be Aaron? Did Leeds see any snow in 88/89?

[Aaron]

Yup, a bit in February 1989

Leeds does very well in terms of snow for a large city, just look back at February this year, one of the few places in England to get any decent snow.

Edited October 22, 2011 by Aaron

[Isolated Frost]

Maybe so, but I'd imagine even some winters will not deliver snow- it's all about the synoptics. It's nigh on impossible for a constant tropical airmass with Icelandic low/Bartlett High pattern, but generally if we got the zonal pattern we should be getting as a nation - snow would really be a rarity. It's lucky at times our location.

[Aaron]

No it isn't impossible for a snowless winter to occur, it just hasn't occurred yet.

Edited October 22, 2011 by Aaron

[Isolated Frost]

Yes, I know, I wrote 'nigh on' impossible. 88/89 had an average temperature of 6.3c here in Durham- I'd imagine with a boiling bartlett pumping up air from the SW/SSW and low pressure constantly around Iceland, moving into NW Scotland and then rinse and repeat for three months would deliver a CET value for the winter of 9c/10c - anyone know the warmest ever winter month and warmest ever winter day cet values?

[summer blizzard]

I can back Aaron up, we have never in my living memory (22 years old so can remember late 1990's onward) had a snow less winter month.

We have however had snow less Novembers and March's however at least 50% have seen snow here.

Leeds does not seem to clobbered by depth (plenty of crappy 2-4 inch events) however in terms of frequency it does very well.

[Ben_Cambs]

Yes, I know, I wrote 'nigh on' impossible. 88/89 had an average temperature of 6.3c here in Durham- I'd imagine with a boiling bartlett pumping up air from the SW/SSW and low pressure constantly around Iceland, moving into NW Scotland and then rinse and repeat for three months would deliver a CET value for the winter of 9c/10c - anyone know the warmest ever winter month and warmest ever winter day cet values?

Warmest ever winter months are a joint record held between the Decembers of 1934 and 1974, with a mean of 8.1C.. not sure about the warmest winter day mean though.

[Isolated Frost]

Thanks for that Ben

[Aaron]

I can back Aaron up, we have never in my living memory (22 years old so can remember late 1990's onward) had a snow less winter month.

We have however had snow less Novembers and March's however at least 50% have seen snow here.

Leeds does not seem to clobbered by depth (plenty of crappy 2-4 inch events) however in terms of frequency it does very well.

Yup. These past few winters our snow depth has been pretty feeble compared to other places, but it certainly shows up a lot more, and lasts a lot longer.

Also this year was a snowless March, though it was a bit above average.

Edited October 22, 2011 by Aaron

[summer blizzard]

March was actually only 0.1C above the 1981-2010 average due to the very cold first half being cancelled out by the very warm second half, although it was on the whole very dry (driest since 1961 across England and Wales). March 2010 was also snow less as i recall with the last snow on the 28th February however March 2010 was stupendously sunny.

Yes, at my parents i think the maximum depth over the previous 10 years was only around 4 inches however we did see 14cm in Feb 09 with snow lying for 16 days, 29cm between the 18th Dec and 18th Jan with snow lying continuously and 23cm by 2nd Dec 10 which lay for 25 days (actually managed to make it to the next cold spell).

Edited October 22, 2011 by summer blizzard

[karyo]

Hi stewfox, my point was you CAN get monster snowfalls even in very mild winters, in the UK.

Yes, but they are brief events like Feb 2007! Most people want snow that sticks and stays for days!

Karyo

[Isolated Frost]

Indeed Karyo, there is often at least one widespread snow event each winter in the UK. When a nation is modified by a generally mild synoptic pattern, warm waters and the gulf stream, we really must think about how brilliant months like Jan 10' and Dec 10'. Our default synoptic pattern is southwesterlies and westerlies - when we get months dominated by neither, there really is cause for jubilation, as it can prove to us what type of climate places like Newfoundland have on the same latitude as us.

I'm predicting a more default pattern this year, but with a larger polar maritime influence - giving the Highlands it's snowiest winter since 93/94.

[A Winter's Tale]

I'm not sure about why people are thinking that a mild winter is dead certain as it's only October. Even during the middle of January last year we didn't had a real grasp of what the overall winter would be like.

The talk about how devastating a November with no repeat of 2010 is nonsense and if there is no snow this November well so what because we've got a winter and spring to look forward to in terms of snow.

A mild November also doesn't give any real indication about the following winter - remember 2009. We could have a winter with some long lasting mild spells until a notable Big Freeze pops up and makes the winter seem reasonable. All I'm hoping for this year is for no repeat of the snowless winters of 2006/2007 and 2007/2008.

[Aaron]

March was actually only 0.1C above the 1981-2010 average due to the very cold first half being cancelled out by the very warm second half, although it was on the whole very dry (driest since 1961 across England and Wales). March 2010 was also snow less as i recall with the last snow on the 28th February however March 2010 was stupendously sunny.

Yes, at my parents i think the maximum depth over the previous 10 years was only around 4 inches however we did see 14cm in Feb 09 with snow lying for 16 days, 29cm between the 18th Dec and 18th Jan with snow lying continuously and 23cm by 2nd Dec 10 which lay for 25 days (actually managed to make it to the next cold spell).

It snowed in March 2010 (here anyway), around 0.8 cm or something daft like that.

Anyway, I think I'd prefer smaller amounts of snow lasting longer, then big amounts melting within days.. that's what happened in the South East when parts got 40 cm, then melted 2 days later.

[Backtrack]

Generally living the Southern part of NW England, we don't get a lot of snow, or frequent snow events.

However the last 2 winters have been an exception to the depth rule, as we've had at least one large snow event.

Hopefully 3rd time will be a charm and we'll get large snow depths as well as a good frequency of events.

Edited October 22, 2011 by Backtrack

[Team Jo]

I've been fortunate with the Level and frequency of snowfalls in the past couple of years, living in a bit of a Snow-Magnet-Zone, and my Folks living right on the Thames Estuary. Last November I went to visit them on the Monday, then Monday Night/All Day Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday we had continuous snowfall, and I didn't end up leaving for over a week, just couldn't get the car out. I measured the Snow at 12" in the back garden, with 3-4ft drifts up the front door.

I was excited like a small child, and my mum and I trekked with sledges to get the food shopping and wine in through the snow. It was so unexpected / unusual for november, made it all the more exciting. I'm trying not to have such high expectations for this year, or at least that kind of snow/cold as early, but it's really hard! - - totally unbeknownst to us, This time last year we were just 30 days away from the first big flakes....

[Jason T]

I think we all need to take a step back,MILD WINTER, erm i do not see any solid evidence in any output,Suggestions yes,but also there are suggestions for an extreme winter this year. I know we have all read about how by the end of october beginning of november winter 2011/2012 will kick in early with alot of sub temps and heavier snowfall,but the current allround output suggests completey different. To be honest i am praying this current trend in output is a big bad wolf in sheeps clothing and we are all in for (WHITE) TREAT Come november. For those that got the thames streamer's last year well ,Must have been wonderland, However i will not forgot december the 18th last year ,Red warning from met ofice,WOW did it snow.Anyway count down to winter 2011/2012 here we come(BRING IT ON).

[Staffordshire]

Where abouts got the red warning? And how much did that area recieve?