Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[ukpaul]

The last part of your post Is very childish Paul, there's no place for thoses sorts of comments on your post on here.

I don't believe you, I thought it kinder to make a joke of it. I'll go back to straight talking then!

Edited October 21, 2011 by ukpaul

[ZONE 51]

Comparing to charts of the same date, 850hpa and 500hpa, these are both 30th october 2010/2011,

the 500hpa is quite a look like! although an atlantic storm on this years one, with last years chart showing the same mid atlantic high as this yr,

and next is the 850s..

..and deeper blues on the last yrs 500hpa indicating the deeper cold there

[scotty_boy_winter]

I don't care whether you believe me or not. I don't post for gratification. I post what I believe is relevant information as another clue to possible weather come winter

I don't believe you, I thought it kinder to make a joke of it. I'll go back to straight talking then!

[ukpaul]

Unattributable gossip is not relevant information. No Met Office forecaster would claim that they are 90% sure of anything months away in any case.

[scotty_boy_winter]

Again what you believe has no bearing whatsoever

Unattributable gossip is not relevant information. No Met Office forecaster would claim that they are 90% sure of anything months away in any case.

[Aaron]

Neither does yours.

[scotty_boy_winter]

Very true, all opinions. Nice to see you understand

The Winter will tell us who's was correct

Neither does yours.

Edited October 22, 2011 by scotty_boy_winter

[Aaron]

[UV-RAY]

I don't care whether you believe me or not. I don't post for gratification. I post what I believe is relevant information as another clue to possible weather come winter

I don't care whether you believe me or not. I don't post for gratification. I post what I believe is relevant information as another clue to possible weather come winter

I admire your undying devotion to the MetO, but their track record at producing accurate LRF is pretty dire over the years. Maybe your friend has had one too many, and although they may work at the MetO being the cleaner doesn't exactly give them privy information.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

http://www.accuweath...st-20112012.asp

I will the comments for everyone else...

not too bad, obvious really that there will be less snow than last dec for southern areas, dosent mean no snow, maybe more if anything, as some southern areas saw no snow after Xmas last winter

[A Winter's Tale]

Last Winter I had around 30 days of falling snow and more than 30 lying snow days.

This year I'm hoping for at least 15 snowfall days and 10 lying snow days. I also hope to record my first -10C with my new thermometer as well.

[kold weather]

Seems like most people are treating this winter like a more typical strengthening La Nina set-up which typically has a pretty flat zonal type jet with the Azores Highh trying to ridge in and the cold shots further east.

Hard to say whether thats really going to be the case or whether the constant strong -ve NAO pattern that has been around for several years now will be able to over-ride that for at least part of the winter.

If I was a betting man, I'd go with a mild 'ish' winter this winter but with still several ok cold snaps/spells in there as well, pretty typical really...

[Isolated Frost]

Regarding snowfalls, here in Durham, the average is about 25 snow/sleet falling days and roughly 15 snow lying days. The even larger teapot would generally give 10-15 snow falling days and 5-10 snow lying days and I wouldn't be shocked with something similar (using the july-june method). Does anyone have any other snow falling/lying statistics?

[Liam J]

If we have a mild - average winter then I can kiss goodbye to any large snowfalls because in an average winter my area tends to miss out on any decent snowfalls just about all together with a snow dome sheilding West Cumbria!! We had to have the coldest December in 100 years in order to get the amount of snowfall I had last year!!

the Accuweather winter forecast 2011/12 isn't a good read if you have hopes of another winter wonderland this season, but as with any forecast this may not come to fruitition.

A mixed winter would suit me fine, cold shots, mild spells, stormy weather, snowfall - preferabley battleground snowfall from thwe west so I don't miss out!

Edited October 22, 2011 by Liam J

[Isolated Frost]

Even in a very, very mild winter, some monster snowfalls can still occur

[MP-R]

I think 2008/2009 might be the closest example of what this winter might be. This is purely amateur but where it's highly unlikely an extreme month like last winter will happen again, I'm not sure I can see it being mild or blowtorch either. I would say and hope for a roughly even distribution of colder and milder throughout the winter, ideally with inversion cold in December with snow not arriving until at least the 21st with snowy spells in January and February.

[karyo]

I think 2008/2009 might be the closest example of what this winter might be. This is purely amateur but where it's highly unlikely an extreme month like last winter will happen again, I'm not sure I can see it being mild or blowtorch either. I would say and hope for a roughly even distribution of colder and milder throughout the winter, ideally with inversion cold in December with snow not arriving until at least the 21st with snowy spells in January and February.

A winter like 2008/9 would be a right treat especially after the succession of cold winters! I have very low expectations to avoid disappointment!

What I find intriguing is that the CFS is the most keen model for a strong La Nina this winter, yet its temperature forecast shows nothing mild until February which is obviously too far away to have any confidence in the forecast. http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/euT2mMon.gif

I think a winter more like 2005/6 is likely i.e. dry and chilly but not particularly cold and without the deep cold in central/eastern Europe that was evident that winter.

Karyo

Edited October 22, 2011 by karyo

[Isolated Frost]

From September-June 2010-11 we had a total of 28 days of snow lying, average here at Picktree is generally 14-16 in the 71-00 period and about 12-14 in the 81-10 period. All the days were 25 Nov-10 Dec and 16 Dec-27 Dec - but that was it. I'd happily take it again but I wouldn't mind a few Feb 1/2 2009 events or Jan 1 2010 events again this winter

[SP1986]

Perhaps we just don't understand La Nina enough to assert what winter will bring.. I suppose there may be signals that can override, or influence the outcome despite what La Nina suggests.

I'm pretty sure we've had winters which looked good and turned out to be duds in terms of signals etc.

[karyo]

Perhaps we just don't understand La Nina enough to assert what winter will bring.. I suppose there may be signals that can override, or influence the outcome despite what La Nina suggests.

I'm pretty sure we've had winters which looked good and turned out to be duds in terms of signals etc.

That's true! I think it is a good thing that the long range models show nothing particularly promising at this stage. This way, even moderate cold spells will be appreciated.

Karyo

[Cheshire Freeze]

The forecasts I have seen e.g Accuweather look suspiciously synonymous with an overblown Nina forecast to me. Who knows though, they could be on the money.

[ukpaul]

I thought it was only one set of models (NCEP/CFS) was showing a strong La Nina, the rest being pretty much neutral.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I thought it was only one set of models (NCEP/CFS) was showing a strong La Nina, the rest being pretty much neutral.

Yes but I'm guessing such companies will use this model in their forecasts? Plus I don't think it's just the CFS responding in such a way to the strong Nina signal

[phil nw.]

Perhaps we just don't understand La Nina enough to assert what winter will bring.. I suppose there may be signals that can override, or influence the outcome despite what La Nina suggests.

I'm pretty sure we've had winters which looked good and turned out to be duds in terms of signals etc.

I guess the ENSO state is one of the main drivers but other factors come into play.

The famous bitter Winter of 1962/63 had a DJF index of -0.6(La Nina)

http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml

Also Winter 1955/56 had an even stronger La Nina of -1.3 for DJFand a CET of 2.9C for those same 3 months.

So we wonder what other influences were at play then and indeed may impact on the season ahead?

Edited October 22, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[greybing]

If we have a mild - average winter then I can kiss goodbye to any large snowfalls because in an average winter my area tends to miss out on any decent snowfalls just about all together with a snow dome sheilding West Cumbria!! We had to have the coldest December in 100 years in order to get the amount of snowfall I had last year!!

the Accuweather winter forecast 2011/12 isn't a good read if you have hopes of another winter wonderland this season, but as with any forecast this may not come to fruitition.

A mixed winter would suit me fine, cold shots, mild spells, stormy weather, snowfall - preferabley battleground snowfall from thwe west so I don't miss out!

So, in your area it needs to be exceptionally cold for you to get decent snow .I would have thought it would be more to do with th exact flow of cold air and moisture coimng over your ares but ,hey,Im no meteorologist.

Even in a very, very mild winter, some monster snowfalls can still occur

Yes absolutely,some our heaviest have occurred in average winters....average does not mean mild people

Perhaps we just don't understand La Nina enough to assert what winter will bring.. I suppose there may be signals that can override, or influence the outcome despite what La Nina suggests.

I'm pretty sure we've had winters which looked good and turned out to be duds in terms of signals etc.

Tatally agree.