Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[scotty_boy_winter]

Yeah they did very well with the cold spell last year. I believe it's the way they will continue to forecast. They've been burnt too many times.

As I have repeated several times by the way. The met havn't forecast a thing. Just general consensus I've been told over several whiskeys and a game of cards

It's been leaked - the Meto expect an Atlantic dominated winter, what do you make of that?

Any forecast at this stage is just that and can go wrong which has been proved on many occasions, the Meto did very well last year picking up on the cold spell and handled it with expertise - very commendable performance for the Meto.

Yeah they did very well with the cold spell last year. I believe it's the way they will continue to forecast. They've been burnt too many times.

As I have repeated several times by the way. The met havn't forecast a thing. Just general consensus I've been told over several whiskeys and a game of cards

It's been leaked - the Meto expect an Atlantic dominated winter, what do you make of that?

Any forecast at this stage is just that and can go wrong which has been proved on many occasions, the Meto did very well last year picking up on the cold spell and handled it with expertise - very commendable performance for the Meto.

Sorry guys my Internet connection is shocking!!

Yeah they did very well with the cold spell last year. I believe it's the way they will continue to forecast. They've been burnt too many times.

As I have repeated several times by the way. The met havn't forecast a thing. Just general consensus I've been told over several whiskeys and a game of cards

Yeah they did very well with the cold spell last year. I believe it's the way they will continue to forecast. They've been burnt too many times.

As I have repeated several times by the way. The met havn't forecast a thing. Just general consensus I've been told over several whiskeys and a game of cards

[Liam J]

Yeah they did very well with the cold spell last year. I believe it's the way they will continue to forecast. They've been burnt too many times.

As I have repeated several times by the way. The met havn't forecast a thing. Just general consensus I've been told over several whiskeys and a game of cards

See if you can get anymore info off your mate on the coming winter and the Meto thoughts

[scotty_boy_winter]

Will do liam, usually meet up when I have a free Monday for a game of poker, will be interesting to see how quickly opinions change as we get deeper into winter and the weather patterns unfold

See if you can get anymore info off your mate on the coming winter and the Meto thoughts

[Robbie Garrett]

Right does anyone know what the Models where saying this time last year? When did we see the 100% guarantee of the late November winter begins? I didn't know it was going to be absolutely freezing until a week before, but when was the first obvious signs?

[ukpaul]

Right does anyone know what the Models where saying this time last year? When did we see the 100% guarantee of the late November winter begins? I didn't know it was going to be absolutely freezing until a week before, but when was the first obvious signs?

As things moved out of FI, from about eight days before; before that then there was some hint from about two weeks out but it was seen as likely to fizzle or out or be downgraded, which this time didn't happen.

Anyway, my mate who knows someone who says that he once pretended to be from the met office said that nobody knows anything at this stage.

[ZONE 51]

Right does anyone know what the Models where saying this time last year? When did we see the 100% guarantee of the late November winter begins? I didn't know it was going to be absolutely freezing until a week before, but when was the first obvious signs?

Im looking for the threads from last november, when i find the modeloutput that will be fun! it was very exciting last year, i do remember it all suddenly sparked off nearer/into november, but this year is different as every year usually displays its varietys on the charts! to me its about the jet mostly, because that of course can make a big impact on what the atlantic can throw at us.

If anyones not read it then i recommend reading the NetW jet guide they have provided, its very interesting, and shows the inportance of the jet to our weather.

We need to be prepared for a change that could lead us to chasing snow and ice charts for much of the winter. although i dont expect this, but i cant rule out some atlantic interludes inbetween the cold and snowy periods, i was expecting a quite atlantic with more normal cold days interupting colder weather rather then lows and more lows, i said the jet would wobble around before going on holiday for sometime, and this looks to be what the models show(jet hanging around!), im not worried because i like some active fronts and mild air, but i do want deep snow to , im not going to worry about what is being said that we may just see a milder rather then colder winter because it can also bring snowfall to, we dont need below average temperatures to get snowfall, thats for reserved for ice days! but we can even get them in the right set ups for quick icy blasts even with a milder winter, but if you just want snowfall then theres nothing to be concerned about, snow can fall at battleground temperatures, and maybe there will be battles of cold and mild air and that would produce big snowfall!

Its why our weather is so exciting but in a different way to knowing what we can expect, its that we really dont know for sure.

Edited October 21, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Snowmad79]

Im looking for the threads from last november, when i find the modeloutput that will be fun!

Yeah, just been looking in the archives and cannot find the model output discussions. Mods, are they archived or not ?

[winterof79]

Yeah, just been looking in the archives and cannot find the model output discussions. Mods, are they archived or not ?

I was on holiday in Portugal when the transition to cold began.If my memory serves me correctly a deep area of low pressure moved accross the atlantic over Madeira causing havoc,it then swung up over Northern Portugal and then over Northern France into the North Sea dragging in cold e/ne winds over a relatively warm North sea.The rest,as they say,is history.Leeds and Bradford Airport was fun on the 2nd Dec upon my return.

[karyo]

Right does anyone know what the Models where saying this time last year? When did we see the 100% guarantee of the late November winter begins? I didn't know it was going to be absolutely freezing until a week before, but when was the first obvious signs?

I remember clearly the CFS showing deep blue over the entire Northern Europe for December 2010. This continued throughout November and the negative anomaly intensified as we got closer to the event. It was also showing a mild (orange) February.

However, in recent months the CFS has not been consistent and got September and October wrong - it was expecting them to be below average.

Karyo

[Easily sled]

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/euro/story/56651/winter-forecast-20112012.asp

I will the comments for everyone else...

[AWD]

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/euro/story/56651/winter-forecast-20112012.asp

I will the comments for everyone else...

I got to admit, that's a pretty good forecast IMO! Only time will tell though!

[Radiating Dendrite]

I got to admit, that's a pretty good forecast IMO! Only time will tell though!

It is not a good forecast for cold though.

I can already imagine the bloodbath that this forecast will now cause on here! lol.

To me it sounded like bartlett?

[Lauren]

Heading to Thorpe Park tomorrow. the weather is looking decent, hope it isn't too busy at this time of year.

[Paceyboy]

It is not a good forecast for cold though.

I can already imagine the bloodbath that this forecast will now cause on here! lol.

To me it sounded like bartlett?

Yes not a good forecast at all for proper cold.

Although as they forecast an abundance of high pressure over western europe, its all about its placement!

As you say RD, yes they probably think bartlett or a midler high position, but its still quite way out to make a forecast(mid october) for this winter and if the high pressure orientates itself differently from their thinking, we could see a very different winter from what they suggest.

The forecast in general doesnt state mild throughout to me but just a normal to slightly above winter.

Personally i think they are playing it safe.

Developments in the next few weeks could change all these thoughts though.

[scotty_boy_winter]

The last part of your post Is very childish Paul, there's no place for thoses sorts of comments on your post on here.

As things moved out of FI, from about eight days before; before that then there was some hint from about two weeks out but it was seen as likely to fizzle or out or be downgraded, which this time didn't happen.

Anyway, my mate who knows someone who says that he once pretended to be from the met office said that nobody knows anything at this stage.

[Downburst]

I got to admit, that's a pretty good forecast IMO! Only time will tell though!

Is it good though? I am suspicious of the simplified nature of the diagrams, dumb it done as much as possible and no reason as to why they believe this will happen. "Less Snowfall than last year" means little when you think about it. That is very easy to say and will almost certainly be correct. Worse though is "Normal Rain and Snow" . Basically they are saying a normal winter. Well if I had to guess a forecast I would say "normal winter" and in the vast majority of cases I would be correct.

I do beleive they have the evidence for this, it's just annoying the way they present it.

Poor old greece though, getting it from all side

[bobbydog]

a crumb of comfort/hope for us cold lovers.

joe b's forecast issued about this time last year on accuweather:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/40716/accuweathercom-europe-winter-f-1.asp

as you can see, he predicted a milder than average winter for us, it may have been a non-eventful second half but december didnt match his forecast at all!

[Backtrack]

a crumb of comfort/hope for us cold lovers.

joe b's forecast issued about this time last year on accuweather:

http://www.accuweath...-winter-f-1.asp

as you can see, he predicted a milder than average winter for us, it may have been a non-eventful second half but december didnt match his forecast at all!

That's last Winter's forecast.

[bobbydog]

That's last Winter's forecast.

thats right... it is.... did you actually read my post?

Edited October 21, 2011 by bobbydog

[VillagePlank]

For amusement, only

Blizzards?

Edited October 21, 2011 by Sparticle

[Don]

http://www.accuweath...st-20112012.asp

I will the comments for everyone else...

Oh dear oh dear.... The whining thread is going to be busy this Winter if this forecast comes off! Textbook mild set up for this part of the world. I must admit I'm not holding out much hope for this coming Winter.

Edited October 21, 2011 by Don

[Backtrack]

thats right... it is.... did you actually read my post?

Honestly, no. I thought you were just saying his forecast didn't match his written one. :lol:

[bobbydog]

Honestly, no. I thought you were just saying his forecast didn't match his written one.

lol, no, i was saying his forecast didnt match what actually happened!

[Backtrack]

lol, no, i was saying his forecast didnt match what actually happened!

Isn't that usually the case though?

So if he says it's gonna be cold, expect a scorcher.

[bobbydog]

Isn't that usually the case though?

So if he says it's gonna be cold, expect a scorcher.

unfortunately this latest accuweather forecast is not his- he now works for weatherbell. he is due to make a forecast soon so we will see what he has to say!