Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[ZONE 51]

A strong NAO status can override the effects of the current ENSO status. Therefore the NAO is the most critical index in determining winter patterns. Unfortunately the NAO is a variable index and results in short term changes in patterns. This makes long term predictions quite difficult. Current ensemble models predict NAO deviations generally two weeks in advance. Several theories have arisen in the idea of long term NAO trends. Unlike the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, the NAO is not often looked at in terms of 10 year trends. But risen correlations do suggest several periods show trends towards a more negative NAO regime and vice versa. Given the increasing negative NAO trends, I do believe we have entered a decadal period favoring an increased negative NAO regime. The 1960s seemed to have favored a negative NAO regime while the the late 90s and early 2000s favored a positive regime. This does not always mean the NAO is positive for the entire period; remember it is a weekly variable index.

http://www.wundergro...ard92/show.html

This is a very interesting read, and its very good, the quote is taken from the above link.

Edited October 20, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Thats a forecast(link) for the other side of the lake, but the info/setiups benefits us! i cant see how we could get an atlantic winter like those mild no snow ones that we cant forget, sometimes what patterns form over there can be having an impact on what we get, everything is shifted around, and the solar/jetstream is shifting things around for us, we await the sudden show on the models, they might not be exciting for cold and snow just yet, but remember those fi runs change frequently, so nothing is set at that point, the jet stream pattern is watched closely along with cold/snow build up over northern Europe

[johnholmes]

What i may do actually is look at the winters months in our sample and see if there is a link between a particular month (eg.. October - January ect..).

thanks for the response I am hoping to find time both to answer 1 or 2 of the points you raise and also to do a similar check with the NAO data to what I did with the AO.

Once I have done both, and checked that my airthmetic(not my strong point) is correct) I will then take the winter months of the CET that are, ? say 2.0C perhaps, below the long term average, and see how they fit in with the AO and NAO data.

All pretty intereresting though I'm sure you will agree. Mind you we are both probably looking for something that does not exist-that is a workable link to getting a reasonable idea of winter temperatures before the start of winter, but what the heck, as I did over 50 years ago its fun trying!

Edited October 20, 2011 by johnholmes

[beng]

He quoted that and was questioned by the look north team and he replied, look I guarantee we will not be colder than last year and went on to call the cold weather forecasts by some amateur website/forecasters as ridiculous I.e net-weather, two and so on. You have to agree that some of the forecast attempts by small websites over what professionals and supercomputers the Matt office use is a little bit outrageous? Like a non league footballer claiming he's better than messi? Lol

Well I think it was a pretty strange thing to say. Last December was exceptional and yes statistically we're unlikely to beat that, however Dec was only one winter month. When taking the winter as a whole (Dec-Feb), it's quite possible for the coming winter to end up colder overall. It may not, but there's certainly greater than a 0% chance whatever the European Seasonal model is saying (a model which wasn't that great over the last couple of years if I recall)

Edited October 20, 2011 by beng

[karyo]

CFS and the last run!! , ive been keeping track and the cold does makes it down into Europe shown here, its there! its biting into it thats all thats needed, as i stated in my lrf preview i am expecting a northeasterly flow later in november as the cold pools in across Europe, building over Scandinavia in november, its so long away this chart but its continuing the pattern over the last few weeks-trends!

now is the most exciting time!

Those arrows are pointing towards the Balkans and eastern Med.

Karyo

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well I think it was a pretty strange thing to say. Last December was exceptional and yes statistically we're unlikely to beat that, however Dec was only one winter month. When taking the winter as a whole (Dec-Feb), it's quite possible for the coming winter to end up colder overall. It may not, but there's certainly greater than a 0% chance whatever the European Seasonal model is saying (a model which wasn't that great over the last couple of years if I recall)

Aaaaahhh yes the MetOffice 'super' computers which, over the last few years, have seemed to forecast the exact opposite of what actually occurred. The only evidence of 'super' I have witnessed thus far is the supposed amount of money it all costs. May aswell dust those sledges off then.

In all seriousness I suspect that there may be the wildcard of some duff nina forecast input data circulating this season; a few established names have so far said that la Nina forecasts are being overblown which may be obscurring long range output. That being said, I was actually thinking yesterday that a mod/strong la Nina on the back of a Nina may not be as detrimental for winter cold as a strong Nina on the back of a Nino.

Edited October 20, 2011 by CreweCold

[Liam J]

CFS and the last run!! , ive been keeping track and the cold does makes it down into Europe shown here, its there! its biting into it thats all thats needed, as i stated in my lrf preview i am expecting a northeasterly flow later in november as the cold pools in across Europe, building over Scandinavia in november, its so long away this chart but its continuing the pattern over the last few weeks-trends!

now is the most exciting time!

Severe cold like that occurs over Eastern Europe nearly every winter, it doesn't show any cold air near the UK. Many times Europe has gone into a deep freeze through winter and the UK has missed out even though the cold air was just over the water.

Edited October 20, 2011 by Liam J

[greybing]

There is never a 0% chance.. that would be very unprofessional of Paul Hudson to say that.

You also don't know whether or not James Madden has a limited knowledge in meteorology. I wish people wouldn't jump to conclusions like this, it's narrow-minded.

I totally agree ,it is rude and coming from people who's meteorological knowledge may be lacking [not always] is rich.

Look at how many times the Met Office make a boob of their forecasts from time to time - big fancy computers don't mean you're any better. Plus, they're not forecasting anything, they stopped that after making a giant mess of their previous long-range one, compared to some independent ones which got last year almost spot on.

Nobody is saying this winter will be colder than last (which overall was not even very cold), though it CANNOT be ruled out. Anything is possible, things can change so quickly in the world of weather and nothing is written in stone.

Maybe what it is standard meteorolgy is putting in their models is the thing which makes them unreliable.I am of course reffering to methods used by advocates of other ways of forecasting weather /climate.I think we know who I mean [pierce Corbyn as an example of one].

Edited October 20, 2011 by greybing

[Weather Boy]

Well I think it was a pretty strange thing to say. Last December was exceptional and yes statistically we're unlikely to beat that, however Dec was only one winter month. When taking the winter as a whole (Dec-Feb), it's quite possible for the coming winter to end up colder overall. It may not, but there's certainly greater than a 0% chance whatever the European Seasonal model is saying (a model which wasn't that great over the last couple of years if I recall)

I agree. Given that (in my location at least) last winter was very cold (Dec); rather cold (Jan) and mild Feb, it wouldn't take an amazing winter overall for it to be colder than last year. No forecaster can say that there's a 0% chance of it being colder than last.

However, I do agree that there is a good chance of some serious disappointment as there is every chance that following the plethora of cold forecasts, there is a mild one.

There is an interesting comment on this from, er, Paul Hudson!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

[Cheshire Freeze]

I agree. Given that (in my location at least) last winter was very cold (Dec); rather cold (Jan) and mild Feb, it wouldn't take an amazing winter overall for it to be colder than last year. No forecaster can say that there's a 0% chance of it being colder than last.

However, I do agree that there is a good chance of some serious disappointment as there is every chance that following the plethora of cold forecasts, there is a mild one.

There is an interesting comment on this from, er, Paul Hudson!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

Aaaaah yes just seen the ECM forecast for DJF. I am not particularly knowledgeable on how accurate this long range model is, how has it performed over the last few years?

[bobbydog]

i have actually spoken to james madden in the past (on a forum) when he made the same wild claims about last winter. he apparently has no more qualifications than A level geography. he also has access to the internet, coupled with a vivid imagination. he also appears to have a crystal ball, as he can see months into the future (however i think someone swapped it with one of those snowstorm shaker things when he wasnt looking)

the bloke himself is narrow minded. he refuses to enter into reasonable debate regarding his theories and pours derision on anyone who disagrees with him

[Aaron]

So Paul Hudson says we cannot rule out an average to mild winter, of course we can't, just like we cannot rule out a cold winter either.

[Yorkshiresnows]

Hi Folks,

Just been catching up with the above and in regards to Paul Hudsons thoughts on the winter, I think folks are a bit wide of the mark.

Paul thinks this winter is tough to call on balance but so far his interpretation of the various forecasts on offer would favour a 'colder than average punt' - though no indication of such cold as last December.

Here's the latest from his blog:

"The hype surrounding this year's winter forecast has been remarkable, unparalleled in my 20 years as a meteorologist.

Driven largely by sections of the tabloid press and several small private weather companies, the idea that this winter could be the worst ever recorded has already become firmly planted in many peoples' minds.

This is despite recent forecasting failures; the predicted heat-wave this summer by Netweather that never materialised; and the cold and snowy October blast, forecast by Exacta weather, that has turned out to be a total non-event - temporary chilly conditions in the last couple of days are perfectly normal for this time of year.

But both stories were lapped up by an ever eager media.

There are several reasons why we have seen a rise in sensationalist weather stories recently.

Firstly, weather sells newspapers. I remember when I worked for the Met Office they tried to tackle one national newspaper about their 'over the top' coverage of weather stories only to be told that weather sells newspapers (a rise in circulation of 10% was quoted by one newspaper editor each and every time there was a front page weather headline).

Secondly, a vacuum has been created by the Met Office, now they don't publish their seasonal forecasts anymore. This vacuum has been readily filled by small, private companies keen to get coverage.

But back to the subject of this winter. With the sun much more active than it was this time last year, there are no guarantees that this winter is going to be cold and snowy despite one forecaster's claim that this winter could be the 'coldest ever recorded' - which is, in my opinion, extremely unlikely.

Piers Corbyn of Weather Action, who analyses solar activity and how it impacts climate patterns, told me earlier in the week that this winters' forecast is not straight forward and 'a difficult call'. He will publish his winter forecast early next month.

Close inspection of the forecasts that are available suggests that on the balance of probabilities a colder than average winter is the most likely scenario. This would mean some disruption due to snow, but not as extreme or long lived as last year.

It's worth pointing out that this would mean 4 colder than average winters in succession, itself unusual for the UK, and we shouldn't altogether rule out an average, or even a mild winter.

Interestingly the latest seasonal forecast is now available from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF).

It indicates close to average winter temperatures (averaged over Dec, Jan & Feb).

But perhaps more interestingly, as can be seen below, it suggests higher than average pressure - which means lower rainfall.

This would be bad news for drought affected eastern England, and could, if correct, lead to serious problems next year"

So, some mixed signs, but nothing pointing categorically to mild.

I would also add to this (being a paid member of weatherbell), that Joe laminate floori is favouring a colder than average UK and Europe winter (predominantly the North and Northwest Europe), with a full UK and Europe forecast due out on 30 October.

He is also poo-pooing the idea of a strong La Nina, ...... believing that it will end up weak to modeate at most. In fact he is strongly critical of many of the global forecasting tools in this area (most forecast El Nino conditions only a few months ago) and most of the recent posts have centered around this topic.

Anyway, I would suggest that sunspot increases will have little impact on the UK winter this year as they are still (cycle to cycel comparison) low ....... but guess time will tell. I'll come back on the 30th and post WeatherBells forecast.

Cheers

Y.S

[syed2878]

Its strange paul hodson saying it's gona be a mild winter when only 2-3 months ago he was saying its going to be a harsh winter. So the question is. Is he just covering him self in case of a mild winter?

[Bristawl Si]

Its strange paul hodson saying it's gona be a mild winter when only 2-3 months ago he was saying its going to be a harsh winter. So the question is. Is he just covering him self in case of a mild winter?

Don't believe any of this hype - most of these guys quoted are just trying to make money out of the weather - they've got no more clues than the rest of us IMO. Way, way earlier in this thread i said that with three cold, and relatively snowy winters in a row (compared to the 90s and early 00s) it wouldn't surprise me if this winter is mild and wet - BUT it's just a hunch, law of averages for the UK winter according to BB!

[trisnow]

Its strange paul hodson saying it's gona be a mild winter when only 2-3 months ago he was saying its going to be a harsh winter. So the question is. Is he just covering him self in case of a mild winter?

Where has Paul Hudson said "It is going to be a mild winter" please?

Edited October 20, 2011 by trisnow

[johnholmes]

Where has Paul Hudson said "It is going to be a mild winter" please?

yet another example of people being misquoted, above somewhere is his blog in full about the topic.

IF only folk would quote correctly rather than the bit they want to use?

[trisnow]

yet another example of people being misquoted, above somewhere is his blog in full about the topic.

IF only folk would quote correctly rather than the bit they want to use?

Indeed, that's why I asked, I wondered if I had missed something somewhere but having read back through this thread and his blog couldn't see anything of the sort!

On the subject of Paul, does he normally dish out winter forecasts? I don't think he does, does he?

[Downburst]

On Paul Hudson, if we do get a higher than average pressure, and that data he shows from ECM looks very high, then it will be an unusual winter. Certainly worth further discussion. I for one will be delighted with that. anything but driving rain and wind for me please

[cyclonic happiness]

On Paul Hudson, if we do get a higher than average pressure, and that data he shows from ECM looks very high, then it will be an unusual winter. Certainly worth further discussion. I for one will be delighted with that. anything but driving rain and wind for me please

Unlike our drought striken region which would like nothing more than driving wind and rain (we get the wind)

[Aaron]

On Paul Hudson, if we do get a higher than average pressure, and that data he shows from ECM looks very high, then it will be an unusual winter. Certainly worth further discussion. I for one will be delighted with that. anything but driving rain and wind for me please

I will be pleased too, I'll take dry, cold over wet, mild.

Edited October 20, 2011 by Aaron

[Isolated Frost]

I will be pleased too, I'll take dry, cold over wet, mild.

Pressure anomalies all seem to be agreeing (at least the ones i've viewed), high pressure to the north of uk or in scotland, lp systems towards iceland and e europe. Generally cold winter for Southern Europe and France - average to cool for E Europe (more so SE Europe), average in Scandi and UK (possibly milder in N Scandinavia), and cool again in C Europe.

Generally, the further south and east, the more cool it seems to look to be - but the north and west (apart from Iceland and maybe NW Scandinavia) don't look overly mild. I feel a frosty, average winter, with spells like 10-16 Dec 2010 being the norm generally, with some cool easterlies, especially for the south east, and maybe the lows can sometimes breach the high and give alternating polar/tropical atlantic regimes.

[ukpaul]

Someone who claims they know how the weather will be over a period of months at an 80% certainty level is a liar or a fool. Do they really think we're going to believe it? Especially if it's a mate who works with these people who might have said etc.

[Aaron]

Pressure anomalies all seem to be agreeing (at least the ones i've viewed), high pressure to the north of uk or in scotland, lp systems towards iceland and e europe. Generally cold winter for Southern Europe and France - average to cool for E Europe (more so SE Europe), average in Scandi and UK (possibly milder in N Scandinavia), and cool again in C Europe.

Generally, the further south and east, the more cool it seems to look to be - but the north and west (apart from Iceland and maybe NW Scandinavia) don't look overly mild. I feel a frosty, average winter, with spells like 10-16 Dec 2010 being the norm generally, with some cool easterlies, especially for the south east, and maybe the lows can sometimes breach the high and give alternating polar/tropical atlantic regimes.

An average winter is fine with me, as an average winter here guarantees some snow and definitely frost.

[Skip Spence]

Anyone know when the UK last experienced four colder than average winters on the bounce (if ever)?