The Run Up To Winter 2011/2012- Signs Of A Cold/mild Winter And The Autumnal 'building Blocks'

[Weather-history]

Thats quite a staggering statistic Ian but i would be a little reluctant to call an above average Dec at this juncture.Granted the 1st week at this time looks generally above the norm that still leaves 3 full weeks which to my mind are still very much up in the air.

And often when it didn't exceed 5.0C, January or Feburay or indeed both was mild.

Such as Decembers 1989, 1991 (February 92 was mild), 1992, 1996 (February 1997 was mild), 2001, 2003, 2007. So what does that tell us?

January or February was very often mild in that period, whilst December was much less so. That is all that tells us.

[Kentish Kiwi]

And often when it didn't exceed 5.0C, January or Feburay or indeed both was mild.

Such as Decembers 1989, 1991 (February 92 was mild), 1992, 1996 (February 1997 was mild), 2001, 2003, 2007. So what does that tell us?

January or February was very often mild in that period, whilst December was much less so. That is all that tells us.

Bingo. A quite concise illustration of how data/statistics can be moulded and influenced to support a contrasting statement or point of view.

I must say I'm rather disheartened by the increased frequency with which the 'christmas pudding' has been referred to... I'd hoped we'd have moved on from that exasperating business by now.

[UV-RAY]

Why ? It was the most significant shift in weather patterns since the mini-Ice Age and it happened in our lifetimes.

Nonsense Ian, your theory barely lasted twenty years whereas the LIA lasted 450 years.

How's the book coming along by the way?

Edited December 13, 2011 by Seven of Nine

[spindrift1980]

Nonsense Ian, your theory barely lasted twenty years whereas the LIA lasted 450 years.

How's the book coming along by the way?

Surely far too early to say whether the colder trend of the last 2 or 3 winters is anything more than a blip in a long-term pattern of warming? (although I certainly hope not)

[UV-RAY]

Surely far too early to say whether the colder trend of the last 2 or 3 winters is anything more than a blip in a long-term pattern of warming? (although I certainly hope not)

The overall trend is one of temps remaining static, but we are going way off topic now.

[Weather-history]

Why ? It was the most significant shift in weather patterns since the mini-Ice Age and it happened in our lifetimes.

Note the word "was" in that response.

The weather patterns have not shifted, our weather has always come in from the west as per norm, I can show you a mean January pressure chart from the late 1950s which has the Azores high and Icelandic low in place, 30 years before the so called m#dern era. The only shift is in the frequency of the types of weather patterns. What has caused this change in frequency is open to debate but the fact is northerly blocking has not become extinct during winter as some claims were made only 3 years ago.

This fact has to be accepted now as I have been trying to put across for a long time. Weather types do not become extinct, its the variation in frequency of weather types that change s over time.

Edited December 13, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Weather-history]

.

Many of us did believe that winter blocking patterns witnessed in the last couple of years had become impossible to achieve, I suspect that most members held that view even if they did not express it.

I for one didn't, how can a weather pattern become extinct in a chaotic system? It can't, there are far too many permetations for this to happen hence why it conjured up one of the coldest spells on record last December.

Incidentally, I have a map of the globe from 1913 which has the mean annual pressure "centres of action" and it has the Azores High and Icelandic low on it even back then. So for the last 100 years at least, the mean pressure chart of the north Atlantic has been the Azores high and Icelandic low. That has not changed.

[Kentish Kiwi]

I for one didn't, how can a weather pattern become extinct in a chaotic system?

I quite honestly can't get my head around. Seems to indicate a huge deal of ignorance and stubbornness, bordering on stupidity, which is all the more confusing as IB is obviously an intelligent enough character.

[lorenzo]

Back to the CET, December is going to be around 6, so with my stats above combined with the current NWP, it is looking rather ominous for cold fans.

Don't think it is ominous Ian, but am glad it is now nearly over, still a good deal of Winter to unfold over the next couple of months.

The current NWP will not reflect the changes that are in the post..