The Run Up To Winter 2011/2012- Signs Of A Cold/mild Winter And The Autumnal 'building Blocks'

[Backtrack]

This one not so bad though!

Does that chart show pressure anomalies or the polar vortex?

@Mr Data: What did that month bring?

[Weather-history]

What did 1894 bring like?

It was mostly mild and unsettled until the end of the year then the winter of 1894-95 really struck.

[Snowstorm1]

It was mostly mild and unsettled until the end of the year then the winter of 1894-95 really struck.

So what happened in January is there somewhere I can read up on the events?

[seabreeze86]

I see accuweather have gone for a milder winter for the uk with average precip, exciting this time of the year when forecasts start to come out. If this winter has one month is half as good as last december then i will settle for that.

[Snowstorm1]

I see accuweather have gone for a milder winter for the uk with average precip, exciting this time of the year when forecasts start to come out. If this winter has one month is half as good as last december then i will settle for that.

Welcome back mate and lets hope for another snowy winter on our regional thread see you on there when it comes out and we can compare our ft's of snow lol

[Weather-history]

So what happened in January is there somewhere I can read up on the events?

Here's an article I wrote on the winter of 1894-95

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/49395-the-severe-winter-1894-95-a-special-report-with-times-reports/

[Snowstorm1]

Here's an article I wrote on the winter of 1894-95

http://www.ukweather...-times-reports/

Thanks for link

I will take that....

Edited October 27, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[Backtrack]

Here's an article I wrote on the winter of 1894-95

http://www.ukweather...-times-reports/

A brilliant read! Thanks!

What did March bring?

[Andy_]

Here's an article I wrote on the winter of 1894-95

http://www.ukweather...-times-reports/

South Shields was severely affected by 15 hours of continous snowfall

forcing the closure of the shipyard.

Oh wow i liked this bit LOL

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

A brilliant read! Thanks!

What did March bring?

All I can say is wow, the ice flows in the Thames must have looked amazing. Thanks Mr Data for sharing this with us.

[Cloud 10]

Does that chart show pressure anomalies or the polar vortex?

Pressure anomalies,pretty much in the right places as well.

Also a little snapshot of January 1895.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Pressure anomalies,pretty much in the right places as well.

Also a little snapshot of January 1895.

I like the look of that, it looks absolutely freezing!! I wonder what the chances are of a similar thing happening this winter?

[Backtrack]

Pressure anomalies,pretty much in the right places as well.

Also a little snapshot of January 1895.

On right, cheers mate.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I like the look of that, it looks absolutely freezing!! I wonder what the chances are of a similar thing happening this winter?

Higher than many will have you think....

BFTP

[Snowstorm1]

Higher than many will have you think....

BFTP

BFTP please consider doing a forecast about this winter it wouldn't feel right without it lmao

[Liam J]

I like the look of that, it looks absolutely freezing!! I wonder what the chances are of a similar thing happening this winter?

Likely the same chances we have of seeing an average type winter, all speculation at this stage with no definite signals to draw a conclusion from, unlike last year.

Edited October 27, 2011 by Liam J

[Backtrack]

Higher than many will have you think....

BFTP

Indeed. The second half of winter could be an absolute freezer.

[ZONE 51]

St Paul's from the river. Winter (1895).

Description: A superb view of St Paul's Cathedral towering over the frozen Thames during the winter of 1895. This was the time of the 'Great Freeze', when the river was paralysed by a long and severe winter. Although the Thames did not freeze over completely as it did in the days of the 'frost fairs', the disruption to normal river traffic was considerable.

[ZONE 51]

Straying of topic just had to post it as everyone talking about winter 1894-95

What im expecting to happen is for the jet stream to move south after a bit of a wobble, while i watch for that i look at the block of cold building up-this seen on the top of charts, and its what become deep cold as we head into winter, once the jet is south then i do not expect a north track to fast, its kind of hanging around for a while but when it does shift then its for quite sometime!

Edited October 28, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BFTP please consider doing a forecast about this winter it wouldn't feel right without it lmao

Thanks , I intend to do 4-6 weekly outlooks. Haven't really had a chance to prepare LRF this year. Suffice to say though that I like the rhythm of RJS' forecast.

BFTP

[shedhead]

As previously stated I think looking at indivudual charts for the 'building blocks' of Winter is inherenly flawed, but there are some things I like to see being put in place as early as possible, the main one being Scandinavian snow cover. This time last year and in 2009 snow cover was already pretty extensive, but this year things are a lot greener away from mountainous areas of Norway and one look at the current model output suggests it might well be the 2nd week of November or even mid month before we see any significant changes.

Current

Late Oct 2010

Late Oct 2009

[shedhead]

Thanks , I intend to do 4-6 weekly outlooks. Haven't really had a chance to prepare LRF this year. Suffice to say though that I like the rhythm of RJS' forecast.

BFTP

From RJS's Winter Forecast

The detailed outlook

From what will evidently be a cold period in late October....

Looks like the rhythm has started slightly off beat....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

From RJS's Winter Forecast

The detailed outlook

From what will evidently be a cold period in late October....

Looks like the rhythm has started slightly off beat....

DJF........

BFTP

[Isolated Frost]

DJF........

BFTP

Yes, but I think he was referring to the fact that at the start of the lrf by rjs- he says cold in late october, when it has infact been quite mild.

But I do have full respect for RJS and hopefully he'll do well this winter again.

No signs of a cold winter on the models currently- unless mild now means cold will arrive sometime??

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes, but I think he was referring to the fact that at the start of the lrf by rjs- he says cold in late october, when it has infact been quite mild.

But I do have full respect for RJS and hopefully he'll do well this winter again.

No signs of a cold winter on the models currently- unless mild now means cold will arrive sometime??

I know what he was referring to, and facitious comes to mind. Don't worry about mild now, it matters not a Lot and neither does Scandi snowcover right now. Thats just to do with the synoptic pattern we currently have in this little section of the hemisphere.

BFTP