The Run Up To Winter 2011/2012- Signs Of A Cold/mild Winter And The Autumnal 'building Blocks'

[chionomaniac]

The problem with the current output Robbie, is that we should be careful not to look for things that just aren't there.

Ha! Beaten to it!

Edited October 21, 2011 by chionomaniac

[nick sussex]

In terms of the much debated building blocks I think they're a load of twaddle!

The atmosphere is not static and hence the best looking output can go downhill very quickly, to suppose an end result to the building block this would suggest that a+b+c= cold spell or conversely mild spell.

However for example negative AO, amplified jet and blocking over Greenland could be seen as a building block to a cold spell, however unfortunately the neg NAO was too west based and the UK ended up on the warm side of the trough, so basically these building blocks ended up delivering zero for cold lovers.

The background neg AO may help later in the winter if it remained constantly however its not static so there are no guarantees, as with all positives for cold in the UK you need alot of things working together to deliver .

My often used clutching defeat from the jaws of victory phrase I think sums things up, one loose brick and the building comes crashing down!

So no matter how many alleged cold building blocks there are theres always that previously unforeseen variable that can pop up to derail any cold spell.

[bobbydog]

In terms of the much debated building blocks I think they're a load of twaddle!

The atmosphere is not static and hence the best looking output can go downhill very quickly, to suppose an end result to the building block this would suggest that a+b+c= cold spell or conversely mild spell.

However for example negative AO, amplified jet and blocking over Greenland could be seen as a building block to a cold spell, however unfortunately the neg NAO was too west based and the UK ended up on the warm side of the trough, so basically these building blocks ended up delivering zero for cold lovers.

The background neg AO may help later in the winter if it remained constantly however its not static so there are no guarantees, as with all positives for cold in the UK you need alot of things working together to deliver .

My often used clutching defeat from the jaws of victory phrase I think sums things up, one loose brick and the building comes crashing down!

So no matter how many alleged cold building blocks there are theres always that previously unforeseen variable that can pop up to derail any cold spell.

totally agree nick. (see my post #42). i dont think we can look at the models and see any pattern forming for the winter, as things can change so rapidly anyway. looking from both sides of the fence, some people are seeing 'building blocks' whilst others are writing winter off before it has started. can anyone honestly say, at this stage before the last two winters, that there were any 'building blocks' in place to decide the outcome either way? i'll bet not!

[chionomaniac]

The thing is with building blocks is that there are so many. At this point in autumn we can only look at foundations but that is hardly likely to provide a house we can live in! We need the bricks, mortar, roof, windows, insulation, wiring, plumbing, etc.... and we won't know whether they can be provided until far later! We only need one of these factors not to be in place and our house remains inhabitable.

Patience needed here, and lets see how many bricks we have in place come the end of November!

[peterf]

has this thread turned into an episode of Grand Designs?

christ almighty lets keep things in plain English.

woops sorry i see it's a building block thread.as off to the more normal winter thread.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I don't know about everyone else but I for one believe the chances of winter starting like last year are very slim indeed. Don't get me wrong, there is nothing more I would like than a foot of snow on December the 1st. What we have to remember is that we also have January and Februaury to look forward to as well. After all these months were quite uneventful last year so if different building block develop this year then who knows what might occur. We were spoilt rotten last December and I personally think this has raised everyones expectations (mine included) As for building blocks, I will be concentrating my eye on any blocking to the north and the positioning of the jet. When it begins to migrate towards Spain I will begin to get excited.

[Snowmad79]

IIRC, GP was hinting at certain teleconnection indices this time last year, and into the beggining of Nov 2010 that were said to favour Northern Lattitude blocking downline which turned out to be the case and he did also mention as did others including myself that La Nina favours Dry Cold winters which most of us went for.

When did the models first start to latch onto those things last year ?, If you read the archived winter thread part 3 (model threads dont seem to be archived at all) last year you will see lots of hype based on model output starting in late October 2010 before models really started ramping up the wild start to winter in the early part of November 2010.

So to say we should be waiting until December for clues for the upcoming winter, thats just ludicrous.

[bobbydog]

ask anyone to remember a large scale snow event, i'll bet february '91 comes up. i distinctly remember that the december before it was mild and wet. a very memorable winter, yet (at least for my location) it only lasted about a week and a half!

[Snowmad79]

ask anyone to remember a large scale snow event, i'll bet february '91 comes up. i distinctly remember that the december before it was mild and wet. a very memorable winter, yet (at least for my location) it only lasted about a week and a half!

I do remeber the early 90s where the best of weather came in latter half of winter. Mainly becuase our School was regularly shut due to 3ft -10ft drifts in oldham area. Similar story for 96/97 where I was snowed in at work all day. We started at 6 or 7 in the morning and snow fell all day that day and they kept us there for health and safety reason until the roads were cleared, but that never happend so I snook out and went home. Little did I expect to be seeing trucks burried fully under snow.

But yeah the starts of those winters must have been milder and or wet because I dont remember. Co-incidentally, the winters we both just mentioned were nuetral enso.

[bobbydog]

I do remeber the early 90s where the best of weather came in latter half of winter. Mainly becuase our School was regularly shut due to 3ft -10ft drifts in oldham area. Similar story for 96/97 where I was snowed in at work all day. We started at 6 or 7 in the morning and snow fell all day that day and they kept us there for health and safety reason until the roads were cleared, but that never happend so I snook out and went home. Little did I expect to be seeing trucks burried fully under snow.

But yeah the starts of those winters must have been milder and or wet because I dont remember. Co-incidentally, the winters we both just mentioned were nuetral enso.

actually, i dont remember any decent winters in the south east between '91 and the last couple of years. i moved down here in december '89 from the newcastle area (i am originally a geordie!) where we seemed to have proper winters most years. funnily enough, i only ever remember once having a day off school because of snow. maybe because back then we all walked to school, through all weathers, instead of being chauffered as kids are nowadays

[Snowmad79]

I got rescued once having got stuck in a drift, and being so cold I couldn't move!, that said we still walked it, but when the school was too cold indoors or simply enough teachers did not get there, they had no choice but to close it. Suspect thats still the case when you hear of schools shutting during winter. Rather than the chauffers not getting the kids there lol.

[Duane S.]

I'm a firm beleiver in 'building blocks' but in the looser sense of the term. Some things are crucial to give us any hope hope of cold whatsoever, others are only crucial when a certain other factors are already in place but maybe a hinderance in other instances!

I remember back to this time last year and GP + 1 or 2 others were staggeringly bullish so early on and in the end, despite that very warm and windy first two thirds of November were proved to be entirely accurate. The Met Office were at times very confident and were very close to the button. Maybe 'building blocks' is the wrong term but for sure experts who are able to see (but not ALWAYS get right) what effect upstream events have an almighty task on their hands BUT I think the trick is not in being able to see a LP over Newfoundland that will effect us but seeing what factors are in play to fill it / enhance it / stall it /divert it /strengthen it from what one would predict it do based on it's location, the current atmospheric state and from how you would expect the trough to behave as a consequence.

Until we can get a firm grip on the relationships, what truly drives what, then we are not going to be able to move forward in terms of forecasting. My honest belief is though is that we are 90-95% as close to as close as we will ever get and let's face it who's want perfectly accurate weather forecasting for months ahead???? How boring would that be!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

In terms of the much debated building blocks I think they're a load of twaddle!

Don't agree. Surface features are eg HP to our NE but there are longer term cycles. The last 25 yrs have been generally awful because the jetstream was incessantly north with a very prevalent +NAO. I believe that in a new cycle and a longer term cycle we see the jet readily heads south and is more meridional and a -NAO has been a very prevalent feature. In turn I think we have seen a shift in the 'pressure belts'. Seeing this occur [jet dipping way south, pressure rises to northern quadrant] IMO shows that it is responding again to current driving cycle and that again we have enhanced chances of a decent prolonged cold spell this winter. I agree with chunks of your post Nick that numerous factors have to fall into place for it to pull off ie west based -ve NAO is mild for us etc. No guarantees but I'd much rather be where we are now cycle wise than say 5+ years ago.

BFTP

[bobbydog]

Don't agree. Surface features are eg HP to our NE but there are longer term cycles. The last 25 yrs have been generally awful because the jetstream was incessantly north with a very prevalent +NAO. I believe that in a new cycle and a longer term cycle we see the jet readily heads south and is more meridional and a -NAO has been a very prevalent feature. In turn I think we have seen a shift in the 'pressure belts'. Seeing this occur [jet dipping way south, pressure rises to northern quadrant] IMO shows that it is responding again to current driving cycle and that again we have enhanced chances of a decent prolonged cold spell this winter. I agree with chunks of your post Nick that numerous factors have to fall into place for it to pull off ie west based -ve NAO is mild for us etc. No guarantees but I'd much rather be where we are now cycle wise than say 5+ years ago.

BFTP

i think it depends on what people see as 'building blocks'. some see the longer term signals such as the NAO being more negative on average than past years, or the jetstream being more southerly. these factors have to be greatly considered but even then, they may not necessarily be in place when required for a cold winter. others see the shorter term conditions such as the greenland high as being the building blocks.

if we could establish what they actually are, it might help to narrow down the discussion

[Uncle_Barty]

Interesting points BftP. There has been a change with ther summer patterns as well with a lot of northern blocking prevalent.

On another note... I don't consider "building blocks" as such, more a case of Reason's Cheese (wiki Swiss Cheese Model).

All the holes in the cheese need to line up for a "big freeze", especially down south.

[Alex]

Tbh the unscientific view is 2 things:

1) we are having an extremely dry year, if anyone believes in the natural nature cycle then things may become wet this winter as we are due a wet season.

2) we had alot of northern blocking this summer, that Greenland high just didn't move for almost the entire 3months!

The scientific view is that solar activity although still relatively low is picking up which should in turn produce a more milder winter.

My view is this, I think we are in for a mild winter with the exception of northern Scotland with the jet only slightly more southwards. Sorry cold lovers!

[feb1991blizzard]

ask anyone to remember a large scale snow event, i'll bet february '91 comes up. i distinctly remember that the december before it was mild and wet. a very memorable winter, yet (at least for my location) it only lasted about a week and a half!

That previous December further illustrates your point about 'memorable' winters / winter months that were on the whole mild / average. I havent got the charts handy at the moment but from memory the 8th of that month delivered a stunning snow event, it was a friday night i think when a potent shortwave tracked down the eastern side of the country dumping some very heavy snowfall on its western flank, i was in worcester and we got at least 8 inches (the only time i have heard 'proper' thundersnow), and people tell me that up here there were drifts many feet high but it wasnt long lasting at all because i only got the monday off school so a bit of a waste the fact that it fell on a friday! The point is though you dont need a whole months worth of cold to deliver a stonking snow event, each to their own but i would settle for a weeks worth of disruptive snow in each winter month and mild mush for the rest rather than a colder than average winter as a whole but really dry with just a few snow showers here and there.

EDIT : I know that winter as a whole was colder than average but december and the feb easterly were the only 2 snowy spells i remember although i vaguely remember there may have been a quickfire sunday night snow event in jan that delivered for the North / North Midlands but that was washed away quite quickly i think.

Edited October 22, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

For me the phase of lower solar activity must be a factor in what as happened over the last couple of winters. Prior to this, blocks were unable to stabilise at High latitude and that is the key to delivering cold to the UK, apart from the obvious transient features.

I'm not sure that anyone was 'staggeringly bullish' last Autumn - nobody - and I mean nobody - foresaw the early winter last year. I have seen plenty of 'staggering bullishness' before and much of it has been unfounded.

There are mixed signals for the coming winter and I'm not convinced by any Autumn trends leading to anything either way come the 3 main winter months, although at least to my thoughts plenty of the decent eighties winters saw strongly zonal Novembers although there were exceptions. What is a pretty good bet, despite the ludicrous hype in the middle class tabloids is that December won't be as cold as last year.

Hi Ian

Yes the cold Dec was forecast in mid Nov by several on this site.....but not as extreme though.....until 1st week when 'record' cold episodes were called. I tend to agree with chunks of the post though. You got any early views?

BFTP

BFTP

[Cheshire Freeze]

For me the phase of lower solar activity must be a factor in what as happened over the last couple of winters. Prior to this, blocks were unable to stabilise at High latitude and that is the key to delivering cold to the UK, apart from the obvious transient features.

I'm not sure that anyone was 'staggeringly bullish' last Autumn - nobody - and I mean nobody - foresaw the early winter last year. I have seen plenty of 'staggering bullishness' before and much of it has been unfounded.

There are mixed signals for the coming winter and I'm not convinced by any Autumn trends leading to anything either way come the 3 main winter months, although at least to my thoughts plenty of the decent eighties winters saw strongly zonal Novembers although there were exceptions. What is a pretty good bet, despite the ludicrous hype in the middle class tabloids is that December won't be as cold as last year.

Hi Ian, a pleasant surprise to see a nice, balanced post from you and it's good to hear your view on proceedings. I echo Fred's question, what is your opinion on how things appear to be shaping up and where do you think we are headed during winter?

[mountain shadow]

1) we are having an extremely dry year, if anyone believes in the natural nature cycle then things may become wet this winter as we are due a wet season.

By we, I assume you mean the south east of England? Rainfalll has been plentiful away from your neck of the woods so perhaps the north west is due a dry season?

[karyo]

By we, I assume you mean the south east of England? Rainfalll has been plentiful away from your neck of the woods so perhaps the north west is due a dry season?

Exactly, the usual assumption that what's happening in the southeast applies to the whole country! No drought here either!

Karyo

[bobbydog]

i thought we got over the north/south divide thing years ago....

[Snowmad79]

The scientific view is that solar activity although still relatively low is picking up which should in turn produce a more milder winter.

Uhm not sure about that

1956/57 Mild & Wet little in the way of snow and generally Atlantic dominited. Occured during Solar Minimum

1978/79 Considered a harsh winter with snow all over the country Dec onwards with drifting a plenty. Occured during Solar Maximum

1981/82 As the above very cold and snowy for most. Occured during Solar Maximum

1984/85 Very cold & snowy. Occured during Solar Minimum

2007/08 Mild & Wet and generally a crap winter for most. Occured during Solar Minimum

There has been cold winters during high solar activity and mild winters during low activity so I dont see a link personally.

[ITSY]

i see the current european block as something that will help influence a fairly mild, wet and windy spell of weather over the next two weeks at least - i dont see any widespread, or even local, low level snow till at least late november. thats my bet anyway

[feb1991blizzard]

i see the current european block as something that will help influence a fairly mild, wet and windy spell of weather over the next two weeks at least - i dont see any widespread, or even local, low level snow till at least late november. thats my bet anyway

I agree. The GFS has been showing signs in low res of building heights to the North East recently but never consistantly, always too far east and not far enough North, In theory the right synoptics can deliver in early November but in reality they never occur due to the strenghth of the Atlantic, no matter what the ENSO, QBO signal or solar cycle suggests. Im really stumped regarding this winter now, i still think the best chance is december, wouldnt rule out very late Nov although unlikely, any earlier just isnt going to happen and any later is just too early to speculate.