The Run Up To Winter 2011/2012- Signs Of A Cold/mild Winter And The Autumnal 'building Blocks'

[Isolated Frost]

I know what he was referring to, and facitious comes to mind. Don't worry about mild now, it matters not a Lot and neither does Scandi snowcover right now. Thats just to do with the synoptic pattern we currently have in this little section of the hemisphere.

BFTP

Yes indeed; just a touch (250-350 miles south) and much of n scandi will have saw a lot of snow as the arctic floodgates open.

Greenland high is there- but a strong pv right now is disturbing the pattern. Heights do gradually build in the arctic throughout the 0z and eventually a svalbard high evolves- very snowy lows for w siberia. And also that Siberian high is digging in that colder air which could make for a very snowy start over n/w russia in november, brilliant synoptic here at +174;

[wolvesfan]

Not that I'm a great fan of pattern matching....

Hi all,great chart back in 1894 nothing to get exited about but shows theoretically what this year possibly could lead to further downstream as charts at the moment are very similar,a lot seem to be discounting real cold this year though.shame the met dont give a long range forecast anymore.

[shedhead]

I know what he was referring to, and facitious comes to mind. Don't worry about mild now, it matters not a Lot and neither does Scandi snowcover right now. Thats just to do with the synoptic pattern we currently have in this little section of the hemisphere.

BFTP

I beg to differ. Scandi snow cover does matter, as does the fact parts of Norway have seen record breaking Oct temps of late. As last Jan and Feb clearly demonstrated, you are not one to be easily deflected from your chosen path, but as ever time will tell.

[summer blizzard]

I beg to differ. Scandi snow cover does matter, as does the fact parts of Norway have seen record breaking Oct temps of late. As last Jan and Feb clearly demonstrated, you are not one to be easily deflected from your chosen path, but as ever time will tell.

I do agree that northern hemispheric snowcover is important in October and November (there does seem to be a correlation between above average snowcover in that period and cooler winters) however i do not think that Scandinavia is as important as some people say because of its limited size (granted it means no snow if there was easterly next week but it is all but guaranteed to be snowed over by December anyway).

Another thing to bear in mind is that snowcover is actually very close to average now (perhaps even a little above) and that the years we are behind (2009 and 2010) had the 2nd and 6th snowiest Octobers on record, so we are not as dire as some people say.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I do agree that northern hemispheric snowcover is important in October and November (there does seem to be a correlation between above average snowcover in that period and cooler winters) however i do not think that Scandinavia is as important as some people say because of its limited size (granted it means no snow if there was easterly next week but it is all but guaranteed to be snowed over by December anyway).

Another thing to bear in mind is that snowcover is actually very close to average now (perhaps even a little above) and that the years we are behind (2009 and 2010) had the 2nd and 6th snowiest Octobers on record, so we are not as dire as some people say.

Following on from your comments I also think it is important to point out that although the last week of November and December were pretty exceptional for cold and snow here in the uk, the last 2/3rds of the winter were pretty much uneventful regarding snow and freezing temperatures. So the fact that the charts don't show anything remotely similar to last year at the moment might not be a bad thing overall as the cold could strike later on in the winter like some have forecasted (Mr Data's post earlier on showed what can happen). Heavy snow and freezing temperatures in the UK during November are very rare and having looked through my records going back to 1996 most cold Novembers where snow occured were not followed by great winters (cold/snowy ones). They were usually mild, damp affairs. Last November was a fluke and was not the norm. Surely its better now to have the mild weather rather than later?

[summer blizzard]

Following on from your comments I also think it is important to point out that although the last week of November and December were pretty exceptional for cold and snow here in the uk, the last 2/3rds of the winter were pretty much uneventful regarding snow and freezing temperatures. So the fact that the charts don't show anything remotely similar to last year at the moment might not be a bad thing overall as the cold could strike later on in the winter like some have forecasted (Mr Data's post earlier on showed what can happen). Heavy snow and freezing temperatures in the UK during November are very rare and having looked through my records going back to 1996 most cold Novembers where snow occured were not followed by great winters (cold/snowy ones). They were usually mild, damp affairs. Last November was a fluke and was not the norm. Surely its better now to have the mild weather rather than later?

Exceptional events like last November and December aside, i do not buy into the whole quota concept and such do not think that early snow or early summer make any difference.

I'm quite positive about this winter as you can see from my sig (full forecast around November 25th) although i expect December to be very dry overall.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Exceptional events like last November and December aside, i do not buy into the whole quota concept and such do not think that early snow or early summer make any difference.

I'm quite positive about this winter as you can see from my sig (full forecast around November 25th) although i expect December to be very dry overall.

I quite agree with your thoughts. I just can't help getting the feeling that some members on here on panicing at the moment because the charts dont show anything cold at the minute and think this could mean a milder winter to come. I look forward to reading your winter forecast later on in November

[summer blizzard]

I quite agree with your thoughts. I just can't help getting the feeling that some members on here on panicing at the moment because the charts dont show anything cold at the minute and think this could mean a milder winter to come. I look forward to reading your winter forecast later on in November

A lot of people believe the folklore and don't bother to do the statistical analysis (even then, some people just pick and choose the figures they like), the warm October and warm April meaning cold winters and summers is a classic case (no evidence to back it up).

The 'building blocks' which i have seen that make me positive for this winter are...

90% of strengthening La Nina winters produced a December below the 1971-2000 average (granted this could mean 5.0C as the average is 5.1C) - less confident about this than i was as my statistical regression indicates that we may actually see La Nina weaken overall (from Novembers value)

75% of strengthening -QBO winters produced a January below the 1971-2000 average - high confidence

85% of August-November periods which produced a monthly AO value in excess of -1 saw at least one winter month with a monthly AO value in excess of -1 - August saw this, so it does back up the notion of at least 1 cold winter month

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

A lot of people believe the folklore and don't bother to do the statistical analysis (even then, some people just pick and choose the figures they like), the warm October and warm April meaning cold winters and summers is a classic case (no evidence to back it up).

The 'building blocks' which i have seen that make me positive for this winter are...

90% of strengthening La Nina winters produced a December below the 1971-2000 average (granted this could mean 5.0C as the average is 5.1C) - less confident about this than i was as my statistical regression indicates that we may actually see La Nina weaken overall (from Novembers value)

75% of strengthening -QBO winters produced a January below the 1971-2000 average - high confidence

85% of August-November periods which produced a monthly AO value in excess of -1 saw at least one winter month with a monthly AO value in excess of -1 - August saw this, so it does back up the notion of at least 1 cold winter month

Thanks for sharing your views. I have a very limited knowledge of the building blocks you have mentioned, but trust your understanding of them. I would settle for one cold winter month as I am sure most would on here.

[damianslaw]

The current synoptics I have to say are very comparable to those we saw this time last year and the year before - namely strong blocking to our east which is preventing the atlantic trough from moving eastwards thus keeping us locked in a mild southerly/southwesterly flow. The last three Novembers have all seen a very mild first half... and this November looks like starting on very similiar note.

Normally by now the jet and associated low pressure would have a bit more power and energy in it and blast away heights to our east - this doesn't seem to want to happen yet again and those suggestions of blocking over scandi with a strong ridge firmly in place dominating the winter at this range looks a very good bet. If we continue to see no break in the current synoptics -gradually those heights to the east will win over the atlantic and we could be looking at alot of settled dry and rather cold if not cold conditions as we head into early winter.

[cooling climate]

Yes, but I think he was referring to the fact that at the start of the lrf by rjs- he says cold in late october, when it has infact been quite mild. But I do have full respect for RJS and hopefully he'll do well this winter again. No signs of a cold winter on the models currently- unless mild now means cold will arrive sometime??

You are of course quite right in what you say and the response from BFTP was

silly to say the least.

For me I think this winter is about a weak nina, and a descending - QBO which

will allow for SSW'S ( sudden stratospheric warmings ) and at times a fairly

active MJO. A cold blast in the second half of November and another in December

before winter really kicks in as we go through January and February.

A real chance I feel of seeing some bitter weather from the east/northeast with

the worst of the winter weather from mid Jan to early March.

A severe winter is certainly a good posibility I think.

[feb1991blizzard]

I suggest anyone who thinks an early blast is likely should read GPs latest post in the technical thread, i wasnt too confident before but with chiono's update in the strat thread and the meto 30 dayer looking grim and shocking model output showing i think thats the final nail in the coffin for November and December looking questionable to say the least now.

[Snowstorm1]

I suggest anyone who thinks an early blast is likely should read GPs latest post in the technical thread, i wasnt too confident before but with chiono's update in the strat thread and the meto 30 dayer looking grim and shocking model output showing i think thats the final nail in the coffin for November and December looking questionable to say the least now.

Oh come on this is ridiculous writing off November fully and starting to write December off to ?

You have been here for few years so should know by now things can change oh so quickly yes I admit first half November is not looking good but things change and will change for better or worse

[feb1991blizzard]

Oh come on this is ridiculous writing off November fully and starting to write December off to ?

You have been here for few years so should know by now things can change oh so quickly yes I admit first half November is not looking good but things change and will change for better or worse

It depends what your looking for though, of course im not saying we arent going to see a single flake in my location in Nov and dec but certainly any sustained Northern Latt blocking is unlikely for Nov, i thought our best chance would be december this year based on weak Nina and we would struggle once it strengthened but GP says nina not behaving same way as it did last year. What people must realise is that the chances of potent cold are very slim in November anyway but when youve got teleconnections against it and most forecasters calling mild as well then you have to think the chance is minimal, we need to be realistic but also stay positive in that even if the first half of dec is rubbish we still have 2 and a half months left.

[Snowstorm1]

It depends what your looking for though, of course im not saying we arent going to see a single flake in my location in Nov and dec but certainly any sustained Northern Latt blocking is unlikely for Nov, i thought our best chance would be december this year based on weak Nina and we would struggle once it strengthened but GP says nina not behaving same way as it did last year. What people must realise is that the chances of potent cold are very slim in November anyway but when youve got teleconnections against it and most forecasters calling mild as well then you have to think the chance is minimal, we need to be realistic but also stay positive in that even if the first half of dec is rubbish we still have 2 and a half months left.

Well personally anything isn't out of the question whether your looking for Atlantic dominated weather or Northern Blocking bringing potent cold to the Uk or a big fat HP over us.

So personally Id rather wait and see what happens ; then say almost no chance of this happening so I don't bother looking for it because it cant happen etc

[feb1991blizzard]

Well personally anything isn't out of the question whether your looking for Atlantic dominated weather or Northern Blocking bringing potent cold to the Uk or a big fat HP over us.

So personally Id rather wait and see what happens ; then say almost no chance of this happening so I don't bother looking for it because it cant happen etc

i just see either a flat Jet persisting or a Jet aligned SW to NE over a mid latt high and any signals for a high any further North will be downgraded near the time and thats why the met are really bullish in their text because thats what is obviously being trended towards in the ECMWF 30 day ensemble model.

[Snowstorm1]

i just see either a flat Jet persisting or a Jet aligned SW to NE over a mid latt high and any signals for a high any further North will be downgraded near the time and thats why the met are really bullish in their text because thats what is obviously being trended towards in the ECMWF 30 day ensemble model.

I disagree and the met hasn't really updated the 16-30 one for quite a while it normally updates properly once a week but this week its just been general rewording maybe that's what they think in all honesty but they have done this before but just leave it here now and hope for a long snowy winter ahead

Edited October 29, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

If we ignore last November and early December how many other cold/snow events have occured that early in the season? Surely we should be looking forward to cold and snow from December onwards. Cold/snow in November is a bonus as it is still classed as an Autumn month.

Edited October 29, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Liam J]

Not looking good for a cold pattern to emerge as we enter November but I think we knew that anyway, I imagine a few of the Forecasts which were predicting a cold November will be going belly up as time goes on and we head into the final month of Autumn. We might have to wait until Winter this year for snow to arrive... yes Winter Who would have thought it!! I mean how often do we actually see that depth of cold which occurred last year in the UK during the month of November?! then to have one of the coldest Decembers in over 100 years which is well in excess of our lifetimes will be and may not occur for, well......another 100 years if at all. Keep a sense of realism and expect the worse and anything better will feel like a big bonus.

Edited October 29, 2011 by Liam J

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Not looking good for a cold pattern to emerge as we enter November but I think we knew that anyway, I imagine a few of the Forecasts which were predicting a cold November will be going belly up as time goes on and we head into the final month of Autumn. We might have to wait until Winter this year for snow to arrive... yes Winter Who would have thought it!! I mean how often do we actually see that depth of cold which occurred last year in the UK during the month of November?! then to have one of the coldest Decembers in over 100 years which is well in excess of any our lifetimes will be and may not occur for, well......another 100 years if at all. Keep a sense of realism and expect the worse and anything better will feel like a big bonus.

I couldn't agree more, anyone would think heavy snow and freezing temperatures is the norm in the UK during late November .... I wish it was though!

Edited October 29, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[stewfox]

It depends what your looking for though, of course im not saying we arent going to see a single flake in my location in Nov and dec but certainly any sustained Northern Latt blocking is unlikely for Nov, i thought our best chance would be december this year based on weak Nina and we would struggle once it strengthened but GP says nina not behaving same way as it did last year. What people must realise is that the chances of potent cold are very slim in November anyway but when youve got teleconnections against it and most forecasters calling mild as well then you have to think the chance is minimal, we need to be realistic but also stay positive in that even if the first half of dec is rubbish we still have 2 and a half months left.

No body on this planet has clue what the weather will be like in the UK after Nov 15th . This winter over posting is just silly.

It could be max +12c or max -5c on Dec 1st.

[Snowstorm1]

No body on this planet has clue what the weather will be like in the UK after Nov 15th . This winter over posting is just silly.

It could be max +12c or max -5c on Dec 1st.

Thank you I've been on my own in here trying to explain my point :')

[Isolated Frost]

I agree completely with feb1991 and liam- very realistic analysis. A very flat outlook upstream and nothing else to build upon basically. The odd less potent northerly, but a month of south-west and south winds are likely- maybe quite cyclonic and wet in the south especially. If these are our 'building blocks'- then expect mild weather to dominate with some cooler, drier south-east winds and the odd northerly toppler, with limited Pm incursions- more rPm and Tm.

Stewfox, who has said winters over?

The upstream pattern looks undisturbed and stable- a strong prominent european block, a continuation of an active subtropical ridge; with few troughs in the system. A pv setting up quite strongly with height rises being limited to Greenland-svalbard ridges.

Surely you can't disagree that is a pattern that will be hard to make major inroads for a while. Nothing exceptionally/sustained cold until 15-20 Nov at least.

[feb1991blizzard]

Thank you I've been on my own in here trying to explain my point :')

I cant seem to find the link to the MJO composites charts to post so what i would say is have a look in the technical thread and TWS agrees with him as well, they havent worked their way up to be senior forecasters without a high degree of knowledge, of course they could be wrong but all the factors point to them being right and that added to the fact that even by random chance we would only have a 15% chance of a potent cold spell in November based on the last 30 years so that is what i am basing my forecast on.

[cyclonic happiness]

We always have the 'winters over!' brigade out at this time of the year, even in early november last year there were some folk on here saying that winter's over, and look what happened!

This winter is looking very very hopeful for a cold one and hey, if it's mild, I won't lose half of my tender plants at work like last winter!