The Run Up To Winter 2011/2012- Signs Of A Cold/mild Winter And The Autumnal 'building Blocks'

[Robbie Garrett]

Oh yeah I know that, but it's all good fun seeing what the models throw up?

[Hodgheg]

Is it wishfull thinking but the charts seem to be showing a few changes now. Lets hope we get out of this mild south westerly rut once and for all

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Just watched A very interesting forecast from a scientist called Piers Colbyrn, think thats how you spell it! A lot of people may of saw him last year on an American news channel with the big curly hair predicting the coldest december in uk in over 100yrs and he got it bang on . He basicly basis his forecast on the solar input and lunar patterns which in turn drives the gulf streem . He is very confindent in saying that around the 26th Nov britan along with western europe wil face severe cold , and Dec wil be very snowy , he says the first wk of dec will see very severe snow events for uk , and from the 15th dec to arond the 20th again britan wil face very heavy snow falls.

Piers is predicting a very cld December with notable snwfalls at the beginning and mid mnth (80% probability, so he has been taking lessons frm the met office).

Anyway if you want to view the video suggest you skip to 23rd minute:

Very interesting . Time will tell .

[Backtrack]

Just watched A very interesting forecast from a scientist called Piers Colbyrn, think thats how you spell it! A lot of people may of saw him last year on an American news channel with the big curly hair predicting the coldest december in uk in over 100yrs and he got it bang on . He basicly basis his forecast on the solar input and lunar patterns which in turn drives the gulf streem . He is very confindent in saying that around the 26th Nov britan along with western europe wil face severe cold , and Dec wil be very snowy , he says the first wk of dec will see very severe snow events for uk , and from the 15th dec to arond the 20th again britan wil face very heavy snow falls.

Piers is predicting a very cld December with notable snwfalls at the beginning and mid mnth (80% probability, so he has been taking lessons frm the met office).

Anyway if you want to view the video suggest you skip to 23rd minute:

Very interesting . Time will tell .

I wouldn't listen to him.

Not one person on this forum has any respect for him. I suggest you read the winter forecast thread.

[La Bise]

426 posts on Netweather and you haven't noticed PC is merely a bad joke to most people on here...

[VillagePlank]

I posted this in the other thread, but thought you chaps might like it, too :

Well, here's my attempt at this winter's CET using a numerical analogue forecast:

• Dec:2007, 0.307570, 4.9C
  
• Jan:2005, 0.307548, 6.0C
  
• Feb:1808, 0.645690, 2.8C
  

How was this done?

For each month I took the last 11 years of data for that month (so 11 years of Decembers) and then compared that 11 year block incrementally to every 11 year block in the CET series year by by year calculating the covariance statistic (how much the two sets of data change with each other) for each comparison. The highest covariance wins.

Not sure how good this is: it didn't pick up last years December record low - but perhaps this method wouldn't, anyway, since there is no analogue for a record breaking low temp The amount of years back to compare is also a crucial factor with the results varying wildly. I went for 11 years because of the sunspot cycle - I had to choose something!

If this is any good (and, to be honest, I doubt it) looks like we have to wait to Feb for good snow chances.

Edited November 2, 2011 by Sparticle

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I guess i havent been following the thred as much as a lot on hear then . Just remeber last yr that he was right that was all , so basicly it seems any forcaster that predicts a cold snowy winter seems to get ripped to shreds on hear then , ( mark vogan, peirs, mark maddan) ? They have been right in the last 12mths , granted not all of it but they have got some parts right .

[VillagePlank]

I guess i havent been following the thred as much as a lot on hear then . Just remeber last yr that he was right that was all , so basicly it seems any forcaster that predicts a cold snowy winter seems to get ripped to shreds on hear then , ( mark vogan, peirs, mark maddan) ? They have been right in the last 12mths , granted not all of it but they have got some parts right .

It's a numbers game. If I predict sunshine and showers for December 1st every year, then one day I will hit the mark, everyone will be amazed and worship me at the altar of godliness. In reality, I simply made the same prediction over and over and over again. Bound to get it right, one day - but it shows zero skill in the method.

Technically, he is, whether he knows it or not, using a theorem called the law of large numbers: http://en.wikipedia....f_large_numbers My beef is with the sloppy journalism that constantly reports on this crap.

Edited November 2, 2011 by Sparticle

[VillagePlank]

I posted this in the other thread, but thought you chaps might like it, too :

Well, here's my attempt at this winter's CET using a numerical analogue forecast:

• Dec:2007, 0.307570, 4.9C
  
• Jan:2005, 0.307548, 6.0C
  
• Feb:1808, 0.645690, 2.8C
  

How was this done?

For each month I took the last 11 years of data for that month (so 11 years of Decembers) and then compared that 11 year block incrementally to every 11 year block in the CET series year by by year calculating the covariance statistic (how much the two sets of data change with each other) for each comparison. The highest covariance wins.

Not sure how good this is: it didn't pick up last years December record low - but perhaps this method wouldn't, anyway, since there is no analogue for a record breaking low temp The amount of years back to compare is also a crucial factor with the results varying wildly. I went for 11 years because of the sunspot cycle - I had to choose something!

If this is any good (and, to be honest, I doubt it) looks like we have to wait to Feb for good snow chances.

Might as well post the charts of those years: here they are (divide by 10 to get the CET)

A surprise is how the charts neatly run into each other (almost) - unintended consequences!

Edited November 2, 2011 by Sparticle

[VillagePlank]

The same method yields Nov=1805 giving the following chart:

Something that I forgot to mention - it's the shape that's important (since that's how it was matched) - ie Jan will be warmer than Dec, and Feb will be the coldest month of them all.I suppose that one might get to the Dec CET and then use that actual for that month to modify the last two ....

[ribster]

Can I add this to my 'winters over list' my forecast was 112 before mid November How can you say final nail for November and December questionable ? UK is marginal Island.

Indeed, rather melodramatic isn't it, some people never learn.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I guess i havent been following the thred as much as a lot on hear then . Just remeber last yr that he was right that was all , so basicly it seems any forcaster that predicts a cold snowy winter seems to get ripped to shreds on hear then , ( mark vogan, peirs, mark maddan) ? They have been right in the last 12mths , granted not all of it but they have got some parts right .

Shaun, he says the same thing all the time.

You are going to be right sooner or latter.

Luck!

[ribster]

426 posts on Netweather and you haven't noticed PC is merely a bad joke to most people on here...

While not a fan, I'm trying to decide whether I want the college student brickie, or the fully qualified master builder to construct my house...

[Rocheydub]

Indeed. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day!

[egret]

I don't pretend to know either way and recognise the many outrageously unlikely claims that PC makes, however I believe it was he that said some 6 or 7 years ago that from 2008 we (UK) are about to enter a series of probably 10 much colder winters. I decided to watch with interest and the past 3 winters have certainly included much colder spells that the previous decade.

Many are saying we cannot have a fourth cold winter in a row because of statistical improbability based upon historic patterns.Yet I believe the forecasts methods PC uses are based pretty heavily upon historic solar patterns and the relationship between those patterns and patterns of air temperatures. If that is so it might suggest that statistically it is indeed possible to experience successive cold winters in context of those cooler climatic periods.

The patterns do seem to match well and there also appears to be a lag of air temperature and of CO2 about two years behind the solar 'cycle".

If that correlation proves to be correct, we should not require this winter to be extremely cold to stay within the profile. As long as it was not very warm and as long as subsequent winters stay at or fairly well below average temperatures, the pattern could still give an acceptable fit to the 'cooler phase' profile.

Looking back to the 60's and 70's it was often mid January before anything major started to happen in the South of the UK and plenty of time for that to be the case this year. Deep cold and snow is really not common in the Southern half of England before Xmas.

As others have said, we shall all know who was right, afterwards!

I would be delighted if those skilled people with access to historic data sets could confirm or deny the probability/trend patterns relating to successions of cold winters during the solar minimum years (as opposed to across all years irrespective of solar activity).

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Incredible how folk speak for others....or do they? Any forecast IMO is very welcome on here...or should be...and we should judge its accuracy and reasoning AFTER the event, not before. But that is the issue and a part reason why I ain't bothering this year.

BFTP

[bobbydog]

Incredible how folk speak for others....or do they? Any forecast IMO is very welcome on here...or should be...and we should judge its accuracy and reasoning AFTER the event, not before. But that is the issue and a part reason why I ain't bothering this year.

BFTP

shame really, everyone has the right to put forward their views and make a forecast if they wish. if they are given in a constructive and respectful manner, then any criticism should be the same. unfortunately, the likes of piers corbyn and james madden, whilst entitled to their opinion, do so with so much arrogance and disrepect to other forecasters and people who question their methods or theories, that they lose the respect of many people, to the point that even if they are right and have a useful contribution to give to forecasting, no-one will take them seriously.

[jethro]

Incredible how folk speak for others....or do they? Any forecast IMO is very welcome on here...or should be...and we should judge its accuracy and reasoning AFTER the event, not before. But that is the issue and a part reason why I ain't bothering this year.

BFTP

But it's a bit futile to just give up - isn't it? There's a dedicated thread for winter forecasts so that they can be re-read and judged after the event; I'm sure come the Spring, they'll be a dedicated thread to do just that.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

But it's a bit futile to just give up - isn't it?

No.....and yes I do read the forum and I am aware of the thread...thank you.

BFTP

[jethro]

No.....and yes I do read the forum and I am aware of the thread...thank you.

BFTP

Well I think that's a shame. I haven't a clue when it comes to forecasting weather but I appreciate the efforts of others; IMO it's only by considering and dissecting all the various personal methods used that the science will progress to greater accuracy. Sometimes forecasts are right, sometimes they're wrong but in a way that's secondary - understanding why they were right or wrong is the important bit.

[virtualsphere]

Might as well post the charts of those years: here they are (divide by 10 to get the CET)

A surprise is how the charts neatly run into each other (almost) - unintended consequences!

Fascinating stuff, especially considering how the graphs appear to be well matched at the beginning and end. What made you choose 11 year blocks? It would be interesting to know what effect increasing the number of years in the blocks of data would have, e.g. I wonder if a block of 15 years would return more accurate results than a block of 10, and that would be more accurate than a block of 5?

[alijoe]

No.....and yes I do read the forum and I am aware of the thread...thank you.

BFTP

I loved your work last year BFTP, but I do understand your reasoning this year as last year, I remember all the arguments and comments and almost ridicule by some when peoples forecasts turned out not correct. Shame because I admire those who were prepared to do what you did and that was at least have a go.

[Cheviot]

Come on BFTP! I for one have enjoyed your views - ignore the vocal minority!

[Andy_]

Incredible how folk speak for others....or do they? Any forecast IMO is very welcome on here...or should be...and we should judge its accuracy and reasoning AFTER the event, not before. But that is the issue and a part reason why I ain't bothering this year.

BFTP

I was actually really looking forward to your forecast BFTP :/

[egret]

Me too, the more the merrier (especially when associated with some comments on why the weather is expected as forecast). This then gives us the opportunity to compare and learn.

Enquiry and polite challenge should be fine, but if we all looked to applaud success rather more than criticise failure, more posters would have the confidence (or willingness) to air their thinking publicly. I am sure that all forecasters learn from others, no matter how much original thought they apply to the subject.