The Run Up To Winter 2011/2012- Signs Of A Cold/mild Winter And The Autumnal 'building Blocks'

[Backtrack]

The signal for the early season cold and snowy spell last year was picked up in mid September, some 9-10 weeks in advance - just take a look back over the In depth/technical model discussion thread starting at page 21. Nothing to suggest anything similar on current guidance.

Don't forget though, that November isn't even a Winter month.

Plenty of time yet my friend. :winky:

[damianslaw]

But that's my point.

We started off warm in T-Shirt weather for some, and then we plummeted to the coldest second half of November on record (or something like that)

I mean, it's so unlikely we will see a contrast like that in November again!

Yes last November was very unusual with a very mild first half cancelled out by an exceptionally cold last 7 days. The cold only really set in in earnest around the 23/24th, it wasn't until the 24th we saw the first snows hit eastern parts. It would be preety exceptional if Nov 2011 was a carbon copy of Nov 2010 - I don't believe many members are really thinking we will see something similiar to last year. We have had a few Novembers which have followed a similiar but toned down version of 2010, think back to 2008 and 2005 both these Novembers saw mild/very mild first halves cancelled out by cold second halves with some snow. Nov 1996 and 1993 also saw cold second halves, though the first halves of these months were average at best. What I am trying to say is November does have a tendency to show marked differences between the first half and second half, the first half is on average normall mild if not very mild and wet, but cold conditions can suddenly set in during the second half. At this juncture we cannot confidently say November 2011 is unlikely to deliver any significant wintry weather and we won't be able to say this until at least we enter the second third of November and even then a late cold blast at the end of the month can easily be unforeseen.

[Liam J]

Don't forget though, that November isn't even a Winter month.

Plenty of time yet my friend.

It was only a small percentage of November near the back end when the wintry spell take hold proper, so it was at the turn of Winter.

I know it's still early but there are no signals for a return of the bitter cold during the coming November and December. I back your predictions of January/Feb delivering the cold, but not as severe as last year but lets be honest even something 50% as good would be far better than many a winters I can remember!

Edited October 25, 2011 by Liam J

[Backtrack]

Yes last November was very unusual with a very mild first half cancelled out by an exceptionally cold last 7 days. The cold only really set in in earnest around the 23/24th, it wasn't until the 24th we saw the first snows hit eastern parts. It would be preety exceptional if Nov 2011 was a carbon copy of Nov 2010 - I don't believe many members are really thinking we will see something similiar to last year. We have had a few Novembers which have followed a similiar but toned down version of 2010, think back to 2008 and 2005 both these Novembers saw mild/very mild first halves cancelled out by cold second halves with some snow. Nov 1996 and 1993 also saw cold second halves, though the first halves of these months were average at best. What I am trying to say is November does have a tendency to show marked differences between the first half and second half, the first half is on average normall mild if not very mild and wet, but cold conditions can suddenly set in during the second half. At this juncture we cannot confidently say November 2011 is unlikely to deliver any significant wintry weather and we won't be able to say this until at least we enter the second third of November and even then a late cold blast at the end of the month can easily be unforeseen.

Yes I agree fully.

What I can say though is that a watered down version of last year cannot be totally ruled out just yet. The CFS as been hinting now at a very mild first half with temperatures nudging 16C at times in the South, but it's also being showing a nice cold spell towards the end of the month.

Obviously with this being the CFS and so far out, it isn't likely to be very reliable, and this should be taken with a truck load of salt, but the potential is there.

It was only a small percentage of November near the back end when the wintry spell take hold proper, so it was at the turn of Winter.

I know it's still early but there are no signals for a return of the bitter cold during the coming November and December. I back your predictions of January/Feb delivering the cold, but not as severe as last year but lets be honest even something 50% as good would be far better than many a winters I can remember!

Last Winter was rubbish! (in terms of snow) We had a cold December. So what? I had no snow past January 5th. I'd take snow over extreme cold any day. We had only 2-3 snow events throughout the whole winter. It was exceptionally dry.

Edited October 25, 2011 by Backtrack

[Paul]

This is all way off topic, and what's frustrating is a lot of those taking it off topic have been having the same discussion in the general winter thread, why bring it in here too? The topic is supposed to be centred around whether or not there are any 'building blocks' which can be shown in the models / NWP output currently which can give clues as to the upcoming winter..

More general chat that is not on that subject needs to go elsewhere, for instance the general upcoming winter discussion:

[Liam J]

I think that any potential building blocks would have been picked up and mentioned over in the In depth model discussion thread long before now, much as they were last September well in advance of the severe wintry spell.

That isn't to say we won't see anything taking shape, just nowhere near as early as last winter - worth keeping track of the in depth model discussion thread as any potential building blocks and upstream pattern changes will likely be highlighted here well in advance.

Edited October 25, 2011 by Liam J

[Don]

Are there actually ANY postive signs at this early stage for potential cold for the coming winter?! It seems that everything is going against us at the moment including northern hemisphere snow cover. I know things can change quickly but it's been a while since things looked this grim.

[Paul]

Some early winter thoughts from Stewart (Glacier Point), and an explanation of the key factors likely to shape the weather this winter can be found here on our winter preview:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-thoughts-2011;sess=

[ITSY]

with FI now starting to become less blocked, the possibility to start seeing colder runs into mid November increases. The chances of that are slim IMO though. Also, just to add, last winter was very average for some points. Cambridgeshire, for instance (in my part anyway), had 3 inches of snow on Dec17th and a few flurries after and that was the maximum depth. The cold was staggering, but everything else was pants! Just worth mentionning when people talk of a return to last years snowy weather - it wasn't snowy for some!!!

[sebastiaan1973]

Some early winter thoughts from Stewart (Glacier Point), and an explanation of the key factors likely to shape the weather this winter can be found here on our winter preview:

http://www.netweathe...ghts-2011;sess=

Interesting. Is it me that can't see the text at his computer screen?

[Paul]

Some of the text isn't clear, but you can view the presentation beneath and that has all the text on there.

[Don]

Some early winter thoughts from Stewart (Glacier Point), and an explanation of the key factors likely to shape the weather this winter can be found here on our winter preview:

http://www.netweathe...ghts-2011;sess=

An excellent presentation from GP. His expertise really is admirable! His initial thoughts sound better than I was expecting which is good but as always we will have to see and things will be clearer in a months time.

[Backtrack]

Unfortunately according to Stewart's video he fully expects December & January to see little cold, where as February could be the wintry month.

Although it's not a forecast one can see that he's clearly hinting at this, and whilst I didn't understand 70% of the charts he was talking about, I did understand that the polar vortex is setting itself up West of Greenland over Northern Canada, and that we're likely to see Westerlies.

Not good if it's cold your after, the anomaly charts he posted show this very well too.

Edited October 26, 2011 by Backtrack

[Radiating Dendrite]

Unfortunately according to Stewart's video he fully expects December & January to see little cold, where as February could be the wintry month.

Although it's not a forecast one can see that he's clearly hinting at this, and whilst I didn't understand 70% of the charts he was talking about, I did understand that the polar vortex is setting itself up West of Greenland over Northern Canada, and that we're likely to see zonal Westerlies.

Not good if it's cold your after, the anomaly charts he posted show this very well too.

To be fair he said an average December/January is likely.

Average does not mean no snow. An average winter month can still contain some snowy spells.

[Backtrack]

To be fair he said an average December/January is likely.

Average does not mean no snow. An average winter month can still contain some snowy spells.

In my eyes, some of the charts he posted were absolutely dreadful for cold weather. And living in NW England, where snow is an absolute premium, very hard to get, an average Winter would give us maybe 1 snowy spell?

[Paul]

He certainly didn't mention zonal....

[Backtrack]

He certainly didn't mention zonal....

Can't remember what he said, what were the charts with the wind flow across the equator?

Edited October 26, 2011 by Backtrack

[Cheshire Freeze]

He certainly didn't mention zonal....

Too right, it was anything but zonal. I can only guess from GP's thoughts in the technical model thread that this stretch of unsettled weather will be with us for another 3-4 weeks before any pattern change, which, judging by his presentation, will be rising pressure over Scandi. All speculation at this point though.

[Weather Boy]

I'm surprised you could see the charts. They were a bit small and blurry, so I concentrated on what he said.

He said no sustained cold in December and early January. Cold incursions are still possible (indeed, anything is still possible) and indeed likely from time to time. I didn't get the impression that he thought excessive mildness was likely given that he did foresee a degree of blocking.

The downside, for coldies, was that if he is contemplating colder weather in late Jan and Feb, then by its nature confidence in that must be lower as it is further away in time.

[Paul]

The charts are also shown beneath the video on a presentation.

[summer blizzard]

He certainly didn't mention zonal....

Indeed, the message i took for January and February was a ridge to the east and average temperatures and below average rainfall suggesting that we may get a surface inversion scenario when we get a ridge although we are unlikely to see the high ridging to Greenland and so no major cold.

December and January sound similar to winter 2006 in my opinion.

[Cloud 10]

In my eyes, some of the charts he posted were absolutely dreadful for cold weather.

This one not so bad though!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A theme IMO that I see getting picked up on [and I think is a set up to watch for] is that any decent cold shot is going to be coming from a backing west Scandi HP rather than a GHP like last winter. Having done a little more work on my LRF thoughts, I remain closely drawn to RJS thoughts [no surprise there].

I think the anomaly chart for the winter that GP tentatively alludes to is a very good anomaly set up and I for one would take that any winter and any coldie should.

BFTP

[Weather-history]

Not that I'm a great fan of pattern matching....

[Snowstorm1]

Mr Data - What a great spot now Im not a great fan either but Im struggling to work out any differences between them two charts they are almost identical

What did 1894 bring like?