The Run Up To Winter 2011/2012- Signs Of A Cold/mild Winter And The Autumnal 'building Blocks'

[feb1991blizzard]

I agree completely with feb1991 and liam- very realistic analysis. A very flat outlook upstream and nothing else to build upon basically. The odd less potent northerly, but a month of south-west and south winds are likely- maybe quite cyclonic and wet in the south especially. If these are our 'building blocks'- then expect mild weather to dominate with some cooler, drier south-east winds and the odd northerly toppler, with limited Pm incursions- more rPm and Tm.

Stewfox, who has said winters over?

The upstream pattern looks undisturbed and stable- a strong prominent european block, a continuation of an active subtropical ridge; with few troughs in the system. A pv setting up quite strongly with height rises being limited to Greenland-svalbard ridges.

Surely you can't disagree that is a pattern that will be hard to make major inroads for a while. Nothing exceptionally/sustained cold until 15-20 Nov at least.

And little chance of any strat warming to disrupt it until at least december and even then theres a lag involved.

[Snowstorm1]

Surely you can't disagree that is a pattern that will be hard to make major inroads for a while. Nothing exceptionally/sustained cold until 15-20 Nov at least.

I agree with you on this part of the post its JUST AFTER this when I think things will get very interesting.

I cant seem to find the link to the MJO composites charts to post so what i would say is have a look in the technical thread and TWS agrees with him as well, they havent worked their way up to be senior forecasters without a high degree of knowledge, of course they could be wrong but all the factors point to them being right and that added to the fact that even by random chance we would only have a 15% chance of a potent cold spell in November based on the last 30 years so that is what i am basing my forecast on.

Sure your going with odds but nobody can say they know what will happen AFTER 15th November yes they can use various different techniques but it only takes one thing to go wrong to make it all wrong (I do fully admire GP with his amazing knowledge but even he will admit with the weather it can change easily to knock everything out of kilter)

We always have the 'winters over!' brigade out at this time of the year, even in early november last year there were some folk on here saying that winter's over, and look what happened!

This winter is looking very very hopeful for a cold one and hey, if it's mild, I won't lose half of my tender plants at work like last winter!

Yes I agree and last year I was saying the same thing and some just kept saying its over and then look what happened. Im not saying the same will happen again Im just using it as an example to not give up until March Id say for anything prolonged cold and wintry.

[feb1991blizzard]

I agree with you on this part of the post its JUST AFTER this when I think things will get very interesting.

Sure your going with odds but nobody can say they know what will happen AFTER 15th November yes they can use various different techniques but it only takes one thing to go wrong to make it all wrong (I do fully admire GP with his amazing knowledge but even he will admit with the weather it can change easily to knock everything out of kilter)

Yes I agree and last year I was saying the same thing and some just kept saying its over and then look what happened. Im not saying the same will happen again Im just using it as an example to not give up until March Id say for anything prolonged cold and wintry.

Im not saying winters over though, i never give up, i was on here and got told off for continually posting FI Northerlys until June! i have to say i am very unsure about the winter as a whole just yet but if i had to be put on the spot now i would say drier than average and slightly colder than average.

[Snowstorm1]

Im not saying winters over though, i never give up, i was on here and got told off for continually posting FI Northerlys until June! i have to say i am very unsure about the winter as a whole just yet but if i had to be put on the spot now i would say drier than average and slightly colder than average.

Okay mate just the way it came across anyways good luck with your little prediction

[feb1991blizzard]

Okay mate just the way it came across anyways good luck with your little prediction

OK no probs although i hope im badly wrong with my prediction, i want well below average temps with well above average PPN!,

[shedhead]

I agree completely with feb1991 and liam- very realistic analysis. A very flat outlook upstream and nothing else to build upon basically. The odd less potent northerly, but a month of south-west and south winds are likely- maybe quite cyclonic and wet in the south especially. If these are our 'building blocks'- then expect mild weather to dominate with some cooler, drier south-east winds and the odd northerly toppler, with limited Pm incursions- more rPm and Tm.

Stewfox, who has said winters over?

The upstream pattern looks undisturbed and stable- a strong prominent european block, a continuation of an active subtropical ridge; with few troughs in the system. A pv setting up quite strongly with height rises being limited to Greenland-svalbard ridges.

Surely you can't disagree that is a pattern that will be hard to make major inroads for a while. Nothing exceptionally/sustained cold until 15-20 Nov at least.

You probably need to know a little more about how things work in here during Winter, but in essence anyone looking beyond the relaiable timeframe and talking about mild weather gets roundly critisised, while anyone looking beyond the reliable timeframe and talking about cold weather gets strongly supported. That's the way it's historically been and that's the way it will again be this Autumn/Winter... so like the rest of us you might as well get used to it.

Edited October 30, 2011 by shedhead

[syed2878]

Hi guys just like to say we trying to forecast winter before it even started. No1 forecasted the october heatwave up untill week or 2 before it arived or the u.s winter storm for late october. I haven't a clue about charts like u guys have beeing short sighted i am unable to look at charts. So let us all waight till march before we say winter's over. Thanks.

[SLEETY]

Making any long-range weather forecast is a waste of time,yet still it's done.

Look at netweather's own summer forecast to see just how wide off the mark they were and to proove just how impossible it is to accurately predict weather months ahead.

Edited October 30, 2011 by SLEETY

[La Bise]

Posting that LRF are a waste of time is a far bigger waste of time yet it is still being done...

[Robbie Garrett]

The 18z run for hr 384 looks interesting, I do believe that it looks as if Winter is starting to show. Minimum 2*C, Max of 7*C across the UK.

[Liam J]

The 18z run for hr 384 looks interesting, I do believe that it looks as if Winter is starting to show. Minimum 2*C, Max of 7*C across the UK.

The 384 GFS chart could be showing a November heatwave on the next run. The chart doesn't look very Wintry to me with the UK sandwiched between LP and HP with a long run of westerlies after a brief incursion of Arctic air from the north. Chasing synoptics at 384 hours isn't good for your health lol but it just shows how boring the current set up is that people have to look so far ahead for any decent charts.

Edited October 30, 2011 by Liam J

[ZONE 51]

The 18z run for hr 384 looks interesting, I do believe that it looks as if Winter is starting to show. Minimum 2*C, Max of 7*C across the UK.

could you post the charts, ive not taken a look yet!

[Isolated Frost]

The 18z run for hr 384 looks interesting, I do believe that it looks as if Winter is starting to show. Minimum 2*C, Max of 7*C across the UK.

Which is about 1c below average for mid-November. Nothing interesting.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The way the pattern is set up and looks like progressing I believe that we are heading towards a sudden shift come late November. I mentioned my building blocks and they are very much in place when you look hemispherically. I think we'll see the block becoming more influential and maybe some retrogression come mid to late Nov. This current pattern for me isn't a concern inasmuch that it won't have a -ve impact on the comin g winter. I'll tentatively suggest, having been a bit busier in my outlook work, that a big switch from mild to very cold is on the cards for late Nov.

BFTP

Edited October 31, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Snowmadsam]

The way the pattern is set up and looks like progressing I believe that we are heading towards a sudden shift come late November. I mentioned my building blocks and they are very much in place when you look hemispherically. I think we'll see the block becoming more influential and maybe some retrogression come mid to late Nov. This current pattern for me isn't a concern inasmuch that it won't have a -ve impact on the comin g winter. I'll tentatively suggest, having been a bit busier in my outlook work, that a big switch from mild to very cold is on the cards for late Nov.

BFTP

Sounds like an interesting theory BFTP, I agree, maybe there will be a shock switch around towards the end of november and start of December.....

[Northernlights]

week in

The way the pattern is set up and looks like progressing I believe that we are heading towards a sudden shift come late November. I mentioned my building blocks and they are very much in place when you look hemispherically. I think we'll see the block becoming more influential and maybe some retrogression come mid to late Nov. This current pattern for me isn't a concern inasmuch that it won't have a -ve impact on the comin g winter. I'll tentatively suggest, having been a bit busier in my outlook work, that a big switch from mild to very cold is on the cards for late Nov.

BFTP

This seems to be the default pattern of the last 2 winters and on that basis I have brought forward all the farm operations muck spreading, winter ploughing,fence renewal, turnip lifting,and some painting in this great dry weather to be completed by the second week in November. Time will tell if investing early in all these operations was correct but at least we should be ahead of the game if winter appears. Oil tanks will be topped up next week and winter tyres are in the garage waiting to be fitted on the first sign of approaching cold.

[damianslaw]

The way the pattern is set up and looks like progressing I believe that we are heading towards a sudden shift come late November. I mentioned my building blocks and they are very much in place when you look hemispherically. I think we'll see the block becoming more influential and maybe some retrogression come mid to late Nov. This current pattern for me isn't a concern inasmuch that it won't have a -ve impact on the comin g winter. I'll tentatively suggest, having been a bit busier in my outlook work, that a big switch from mild to very cold is on the cards for late Nov.

BFTP

Yes the longer those heights to our east remain locked in place the greater there influence I believe - as we know blocking to our east can be a very stubborn beast indeed. There is not sign of the atlantic firing into gear on its westerly trajectory - indeed it hasn't done this for so long now it just seems to have lost lots of its energy - by now it surely should have the power to fire into those heights to our east. The charts remind me of last year and the year before, I suspect the longwave trough to our west will break in time, signs of it wanting to do this over the coming days.

[Isolated Frost]

I feel the atlantic will break open late November with the odd northerly outbreak. Nothing special. Just my opinion of course.

[dallas]

According to this daily http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/281196

They expect a dramatic change in the models within the next two weeks, I cant see it myself yet

[shedhead]

According to this daily http://www.express.c...sts/view/281196

They expect a dramatic change in the models within the next two weeks, I cant see it myself yet

Nothing more than publicity seeking organisations jumping on the bandwagon offered by yesterday's announcement imo.

[stewfox]

A lot of people believe the folklore and don't bother to do the statistical analysis (even then, some people just pick and choose the figures they like), the warm October and warm April meaning cold winters and summers is a classic case (no evidence to back it up).

The 'building blocks' which i have seen that make me positive for this winter are...

75% of strengthening -QBO winters produced a January below the 1971-2000 average - high confidence

85% of August-November periods which produced a monthly AO value in excess of -1 saw at least one winter month with a monthly AO value in excess of -1 - August saw this, so it does back up the notion of at least 1 cold winter month

I would take 'folklore' often built up over hundreds of years then reading too much into data thats not statistically sound/robust.Often peoples lively hood /survival depended on it

Its nice looking at a chart from 1894 but its rather meaningless as are 'building blocks, current snow cover in sweden or anything else'. If you can show me 10% snow cover in sweden end of October led to 45 mild UK winters and 75% snow cover led to 45 Harsh winters happy to eat my hat. Obvioulsy in Winter its better to have cold all around us

I suggest anyone who thinks an early blast is likely should read GPs latest post in the technical thread, i wasnt too confident before but with chiono's update in the strat thread and the meto 30 dayer looking grim and shocking model output showing i think thats the final nail in the coffin for November and December looking questionable to say the least now.

Can I add this to my 'winters over list' my forecast was 112 before mid November How can you say final nail for November and December questionable ? UK is marginal Island.

Edited November 2, 2011 by stewfox

[shedhead]

Until we see a change of pattern (or at the very least a decent signal for one) on the 500mb forecast charts, any talk of a major switch to cold/very cold from mid or late month is at best hopecasting and at worst deliberately misleading - End of!

[November13]

If we deal with the facts as they are and not fantasy. Logic would fall on the side of the mild. It's been a mild Sept/Oct. November is extremely mild at present and for the next 10 days at least. There has not been any frost this autumn which is exceptional for early November. If I was going to look at a pattern then it is as plain as the nose on your face. I might not like it but It's better to deal in facts it looks mild all the way through to December!

[Robbie Garrett]

I seriously doubt it, but my god it's starting all over again!! Northern blocking 'starting to go' in place!!

Edited November 2, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[Backtrack]

I seriously doubt it, but my god it's starting all over again!! Northern blocking 'starting to go' in place!!

A chart 16 days out? Come on, that's as reliable as asking a 2 year old if it's raining!

Back on topic:

I've just looked through the NAO charts, (which I am a novice at) and am I right in thinking they are showing a weak positive now from a negative NAO in October? If this is correct, surely that's not good for anyone seeking cold weather?