Model Output Discussion - Late October Onwards

[tinybill]

Oh damn, I always forget the ensembles are a little later than the operational, my bad!

I don't really know if I would even class that as a block? It's only there for a very short time and then the high moves over us, which is a bad position especially at this time of year. As for signs, I'm not really sure. I suppose it can only be a good sign, but then again the weather doesn't follow any rules.

Hi Daniel,

Where can i find those charts? I have a link to one site but it's on a very fast loop and I don't have time to look at them before they change. :lol:

read the express to-the ice age is coming in 2 week!!

http://www.express.co.uk/news

Edited November 2, 2011 by tinybill

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes i certainly agree that the ECM is the favoured outcome odds wise, i know this isnt a thread to talk about media forecasts but the Met office use the ECM and they have been bullish all along in their monthly update that the jet will flip from a SW to NE alignment to flat and back again but no sign of it digging south during November.

[Backtrack]

read the express to-the ice age is coming in 2 week!!

http://www.express.co.uk/news

I honestly laughed at that article, then sighed when I read it.

But it would fall in line with that blocking the GFS is showing! :o

[Met4Cast]

Yes i certainly agree that the ECM is the favoured outcome odds wise, i know this isnt a thread to talk about media forecasts but the Met office use the ECM and they have been bullish all along in their monthly update that the jet will flip from a SW to NE alignment to flat and back again but no sign of it digging south during November.

I'd say the ECM was the most likely outcome at the moment too based on upstream teleconnections, though having said that, the GFS has been equally as bullish with its Northern Blocking outcome too, last year we had something similar to this, the ECM was going against a cold spell the GFS was predicting, and eventually the ECM swapped sides and came over to the cold side, so I wouldn't rule it out completely, though it does seem unlikely.

[cyclonic happiness]

The GFS this morning has gone all blobby and lavalamp on us again today, just like it always does before a major synoptic change, but the trend seems to be towards a slack easterly towards the middle to end of this month.

Hopefully around 4 more runs should iron out some of the weird creases it's throwing up atm, but I'm very happy as to where we will be going.....cold!

[ICETAB]

I have a sneaky suspicion that if the ECM went out further we would see the high pressure building to our west, migrating north east. Obviously this is pure speculation at this point. Looking beyond T168 should be classed as a bit of fun. Verification after this point is always poor. I do think we will see a colder trend emerging as we go through the weekend though.

It looks like the AO forecast is going towards a negative phase?

[Radiating Dendrite]

I have a sneaky suspicion that if the ECM went out further we would see the high pressure building to our west, migrating north east. Obviously this is pure speculation at this point. Looking beyond T168 should be classed as a bit of fun. Verification after this point is always poor. I do think we will see a colder trend emerging as we go through the weekend though.

It looks like the AO forecast is going towards a negative phase?

Yes, I actually thought this myself.

At +244 we have the trigger low and I think this would go under the block if the run went on, developing a similar situation to that shown on the GFS.

[Frosty.]

The latest models show the azores anticyclone building a ridge northeastwards across the uk by sunday and then pushing east and joining forces with the european high, this will become a very dominant feature during next week but it won't stop lows trying to push eastwards but progress looks slow and it will just increase the wind speeds due to the forces of the euro block and the atlantic hitting a brick wall. From around T+240 hours it looks as though the high will relax it's grip for a time and allow low pressure to push east across the uk, that low will probably then fill and be replaced by more high pressure but the Gfs 06z is showing a colder outlook from mid month but no sign of any snow and no sign of the daily mail siberian freeze which is supposed to engulf the uk in a few weeks.

[Rocheydub]

GFS about to roll out, so I expect to be purple faced from holding my breath again!

[Radiating Dendrite]

GFS about to roll out, so I expect to be purple faced from holding my breath again!

I am expecting a continuation of the same theme.

It seems to have grabbed the pattern in FI by the horns and seems reluctant to change.

Expect a cold shot in FI!

[MR EXTREMES]

well i see the azores high is linking up with a scandi eastern europian high!

but fear its being pushed a little far east but a dominant alantic low pressure systems heights are not high around greenland with the pv pretty strong.

but over all im only looking at the gfs at t120 has it got the strength to absord the lows from the alantic be nigh to see heights to our east and north east to go sausage shape or more angled.

but certainly a change is creeping into a realible time frame cooler would be most likely.

but can this build and progress into something intresting for cold fans possible strat event is forecast but how much warming happens in the strat at what level is not 100% game on yet.

as we progress past t144 as i feared heights lose and the alantic slowly pushes in although this is only one run and could change.

but as it stands settled cooler days and frost possible at night.

past t144 southerly flow returns so a return to milder conditions.

Edited November 2, 2011 by badboy657

[Radiating Dendrite]

well i see the azores high is linking up with a scandi eastern europian high!

but fear its being pushed a little far east but a dominant alantic low pressure systems heights are not high around greenland with the pv pretty strong.

but over all im only looking at the gfs at t120 has it got the strength to absord the lows from the alantic be nigh to see heights to our east and north east to go sausage shape or more angled.

but certainly a change is creeping into a realible time frame cooler would be most likely.

but can this build and progress into something intresting for cold fans possible strat event is forecast but how much warming happens in the strat at what level is not 100% game on yet.

as we progress past t144 as i feared heights lose and the alantic slowly pushes in although this is only one run and could change.

but as it stands settled cooler days and frost possible at night.

Personally I do not see too much in the way of difference at 144.

In all honesty I am not sure whether the Atlantic pushing through would be a bad thing, at least it would reset the pattern a bit.

Northern Scandi looks like it will be in the freezer in the next 8-10 days going off the last few runs.

[Met4Cast]

Come T180 we're practically in the same setup as we are at T12. A pattern change starts to get underway and fails, resulting in a return to the current pattern. Maybe the Low-Res will offer some change, though, certainly no real change for at least the next week or two, it would seem.

[Backtrack]

The 12z GFS again is throwing up a weak block around Greenland. It's in FI but that's been there for a couple of runs now. Of course this means nothing, as it's going to be gone within 2 days even if it did materialize. Just something I thought was worth mentioning.

[Rocheydub]

And t at the very end of the run, in deepest FI, the cold is knocking on the door... Very unlikely, but hey, it's in the charts, so let's ramp it!

[Radiating Dendrite]

And t at the very end of the run, in deepest FI, the cold is knocking on the door... Very unlikely, but hey, it's in the charts, so let's ramp it!

Where?

I just see zonality. It will be colder, but would not bring snow.

[Rocheydub]

I said "knocking on the door" not breaking it down... And I never mentioned snow.

[Strider]

Yes, the best possible solution would be for a mid-Atlantic ridge leading to significantly cooler conditions than we have been experiencing of late.

[Stormyking]

To be honest I am enjoying this Atlantic type weather, had thunderstorms last week and the same again with Atlantic throwing more lows at us this week. I love the wind and they is always or mostly some sort of actiion in the weather with Atlantic lows. Don't want the cold just yet I would rather wait till Mid December onwards which is 1 and a half months time

Anyways back on topic, and unsettled look to the models over the next couple of days, a few days of strong winds, heavy rain about risk of thundery showers especially along the Coasts, mainly Southern and South West coast by the look of it. The Azores linking up with Scandi high by the look of it, so all in all I reckon remaining fairly mild by day, some chillier nights though I reckon.

End of Fi show a weak looking greenland high but I guess this will change lol.

Patience is all that is needed for the cold weather fans, I am sure it will be with us before you know it!

[Radiating Dendrite]

To be fair though it will always be knocking on the door from now on, but most time nobody in to open the door! </p>

[Summer Sun]

Tonights temperature Ensembles

http://hw.nwstatic.c...2/t2mLondon.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...erdeenshire.png

[Backtrack]

Tonights temperature Ensembles

http://hw.nwstatic.c...2/t2mLondon.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...erdeenshire.png

Hmm yes. Some decent agreement that things could well turn more average towards the middle of the month.

This in no means suggests that colder weather is on the way, just that we may see a change from the warm South Westerlies of late, with things returning down to the seasonal average.

[wolvesfan]

Hi all,just been looking at the latest GFS,i think maybe a more zonal type set up from around mid month looks the favourite at the moment especially if my interpretation of the polar vortex setting up over northern canada is correct.

[ChillyWilly]

Sorry if this is in the wrong thread but as it's my 1st post I wasn't sure where to put it.

Anyway, I'm going to Lapland (Yllas) on 14th Dec but this year has started very slow for snow cover - in fact none as yet.

The Euro high has brought southerly winds here for a while now so i need the pattern to break to get me some deep snow.

There are signs a north-westerly could hit next week so that should give some snow.

Please reassure me and my kids that the weather will improve to have given us plenty of snow when we arrived - in a model related way if poss please.

I havent seen any medium/longe range forecasts for Scandi.

Thanks

[phil nw.]

Hi all,just been looking at the latest GFS,i think maybe a more zonal type set up from around mid month looks the favourite at the moment especially if my interpretation of the polar vortex setting up over northern canada is correct.

Yes a lot of energy to our North West modelled next week.

A temporary rise of pressure across the UK next Sun/Mon. which gives way to a renewed push from the Atlantic trough.

It looks like we will continue in this mild southerly flow from southern europe for a while yet as we are stuck on the warm side of the stubborn euro. block.

Edited November 2, 2011 by phil n.warks.