Model Output Discussion - Late October Onwards

[bobbydog]

if you want to see a blizzard, watch the reykjavik webcam on sunday

http://live.mila.is/english/tjornin/

Edited November 3, 2011 by bobbydog

[tinybill]

i know its deep f1 any thing could happen!!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

i know its deep f1 any thing could happen!!!

It is FI (FANTASY ISLAND) and not F1 (Formula 1)!

Anyway, back to the models.

The chart above would just bring wind and rain if you were thinking along the lines that it would bring snow?

My advice if you want snow, come back again in 3 weeks as there may be something to look for by then.

[bobbydog]

It is FI (FANTASY ISLAND) and not F1 (Formula 1)!

Anyway, back to the models.

The chart above would just bring wind and rain if you were thinking along the lines that it would bring snow?

My advice if you want snow, come back again in 3 weeks as there may be something to look for by then.

or, if a couple of 'infamous' forecasters are right, you will just have to look out of the window! (this smiley does look a bit like Piers!)

[Radiating Dendrite]

Interesting end to the 6z with a cold shot coming down from the North.

GFS is still flirting with High Pressure in FI, just not sure where it wants to put it! Maybe a trend, but that could be clutching at straws!

Edited November 3, 2011 by Radiating Dendrite

[shedhead]

Interesting end to the 6z with a cold shot coming down from the North.

GFS is still flirting with High Pressure in FI, just not sure where it wants to put it! Maybe a trend, but that could be clutching at straws!

Not sure there have been many runs across the last week that haven't shown something similar, it almost appears to be GFS's default pattern when La Nina is set to increase, but until we see a possible change of pattern on the 500mb forecast charts I'll continue to view FI with a huge degree of sceptacism.

Edited November 3, 2011 by shedhead

[wolvesfan]

Hi all,

06z GFS making for better viewing,cut off low pressure towards iberia and also showing the azores ridge being flattened slightly as the jet splits and tracks further south.wonder if we might get more low pressure into the continent from this if it verifys?.

[weathe20]

more ecnouraging FI today

Last November it showed a N/NW shot of -10 air hitting scotland in the morning and -5 air reaching the south coast by that evening, very quick mildish to cold. The FI charts hints at something simular then tails off. As one member says, dont chase every run, compare like to like. Wonder what the 6z will show tomorrow.

[ITSY]

agree with you completely - although an even better evolution in the 06Z, with pressure to the NW emerging from +200s rather than +300s. Obviously ridiculous, like you say, to chase every run but worthwhile to formulate the emerging pattern. Certainly ends up with most of the UK sub-zero and potentially snowy, so its worth keeping just an eye peeled to the models over the next week or so to see how FI formulates...

[nick sussex]

The limpet high to the east looks like its going nowhere fast and the upstream pattern upto 240hrs is still flat so no chance of a real change in the outlook.

In terms of the GFS and its FI this changes so often that it will eventually get it right but this is the same as saying if I keep throwing dice eventually I'll get two sixes!

I wouldn't read much into it until you see some signals for a change in the higher resolution part of the output.

[Frosty.]

A cold spell around mid month on the Gfs 06z which looks like it would last for some time as the atlantic has a blocked look about it, similar to last december in many respects but we have to get rid of the euro high first and that will prove difficult as it will soon be reinforced by the azores high ridging up and across the north of britain this weekend before becoming absorbed into the main euro high next week, atlantic lows will have a go at pushing into the uk but the euro high force field looks strong but the 6z favours the atlantic eventually gaining enough strength to push the euro block further southeast and bring a generally unsettled spell back to the uk between days 7-10 with the potential for a colder pattern during the second half of the month. It is something for all cold fans to hope for until this turgid pattern ends. The next few days show a lot of rain across the uk, one particular pulse of heavy rain for southeast england tonight, spreading up the eastern side of the uk by morning and then more rain into the southeast on saturday, spreading north but most of scotland & n. ireland are looking dry and sunny this weekend into early next week before turning windier and cloudier with some rain edging in from the west later, the south and east cloudy at first but trending brighter and remaining mild throughout next week so the warmest october for 10 years is being followed by at least a very mild first half of november by the look of things.

[wolvesfan]

The limpet high to the east looks like its going nowhere fast and the upstream pattern upto 240hrs is still flat so no chance of a real change in the outlook.

In terms of the GFS and its FI this changes so often that it will eventually get it right but this is the same as saying if I keep throwing dice eventually I'll get two sixes!

I wouldn't read much into it until you see some signals for a change in the higher resolution part of the output.

Hi Nick,would i be right in lookig for pressure to our south for a pattern change?,thanks.

[shedhead]

The limpet high to the east looks like its going nowhere fast and the upstream pattern upto 240hrs is still flat so no chance of a real change in the outlook. In terms of the GFS and its FI this changes so often that it will eventually get it right but this is the same as saying if I keep throwing dice eventually I'll get two sixes! I wouldn't read much into it until you see some signals for a change in the higher resolution part of the output.

Completely agree Nick - as suggested last week we're pushing the upper teens here today and with the low 20's down there it must feel pretty summery. Really hard to see any sig changes until mid month and even then if they start to manifest thenselves it'll be late November before anything genuinely cold arrives.... and even that looks a big IF right now. Edited November 3, 2011 by shedhead

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick,would i be right in lookig for pressure to our south for a pattern change?,thanks.

You'd need to see pressure drop in central Europe and the high much further east or even better a separate ridge developing to the north.

If you think of synoptics that deliver cold to the UK these always have either troughing over Scandi right into the heart of Europe with Greenland high or easterlies supported by low heights over central southern Europe.

You can also get a cooler form of zonality with high pressure to the ne forcing the jet axis more nw/se but really for real cold you need those two patterns I mentioned previously.

As you can see at the moment theres a stalemate between that troughing in the Atlantic and high pressure centred too far south over eastern and southern Europe.

Edited November 3, 2011 by nick sussex

[ITSY]

perhaps because its not winter yet? if it is cold for the start of winter that will do me fine. autumn isn't all that bad being mild - if it does become properly cold then you may miss it!

[nick sussex]

The most interesting output of today is in fact the UKMO 16 to 30 day outlook.

Why could this be indicating a possible change although it doesn't actually state it. I'm not one for reading too much into these longer range outlooks but todays quiz asks why this should be encouraging!

Seeing as it's quiet I thought I'd get a bit of debate going!

[SMU]

The most interesting output of today is in fact the UKMO 16 to 30 day outlook.

Why could this be indicating a possible change although it doesn't actually state it. I'm not one for reading too much into these longer range outlooks but todays quiz asks why this should be encouraging!

Seeing as it's quiet I thought I'd get a bit of debate going!

pattern change coming in between day 10 & 14-

With a canadian high developing doesnt teleconnect well with HP directly to the east of us-

S

[nick sussex]

pattern change coming in between day 10 & 14-

With a canadian high developing doesnt teleconnect well with HP directly to the east of us-

S

Nice to see Steve M back, that means theres hope for a change!

[nick sussex]

Going back to the further outlook by the UKMO the main point of interest is the change in distribution of rainfall suggesting the high to the east is on the move, for eastern and northern areas to be drier and more rainfall into the south and west suggests the high shifts position and loosens its grip on southern Europe, probably the ridge will extend nw allowing some pressure falls into southern Europe.

That trough in the Atlantic is unlikely to go far at the moment but with a little more upstream amplification this would allow it to dig further south and east, it could be a long winded process as it ejects shortwaves off but if pressure rises enough to the ne then we could see enough forcing to disrupt the trough sending the salvation shortwave further into southern Europe.

Anyway thats the reading between the lines of the further outlook, it could all change tomorrow but as Steve suggests if the upstream pattern changes then there is hope for something colder.

[Summer Sun]

Nothing too cold from the ensembles GFS FI looks like an outliner

http://hw.nwstatic.c...erdeenshire.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20111103/06/t2mDurham.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...6/t2mLondon.png

[Cheshire Freeze]

Nothing too cold from the ensembles GFS FI looks like an outliner

http://hw.nwstatic.c...erdeenshire.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...6/t2mDurham.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...6/t2mLondon.png

Whole ensemble suites can change in the blink of an eye in the process of one run to another- I pointed this out last winter, they actually mean very little at face value.

Oh and by the way it's an 'outlier' not an 'outliner'

Edited November 3, 2011 by CreweCold

[johnholmes]

The most interesting output of today is in fact the UKMO 16 to 30 day outlook.

Why could this be indicating a possible change although it doesn't actually state it. I'm not one for reading too much into these longer range outlooks but todays quiz asks why this should be encouraging!

Seeing as it's quiet I thought I'd get a bit of debate going!

what change Nick and Steve or are you both on a wind-up mission?

[peterf]

i couldn't see anything of note either John?

[Radiating Dendrite]

what change Nick and Steve or are you both on a wind-up mission?

"Going back to the further outlook by the UKMO the main point of interest is the change in distribution of rainfall suggesting the high to the east is on the move, for eastern and northern areas to be drier and more rainfall into the south and west suggests the high shifts position and loosens its grip on southern Europe, probably the ridge will extend nw allowing some pressure falls into southern Europe.

That trough in the Atlantic is unlikely to go far at the moment but with a little more upstream amplification this would allow it to dig further south and east, it could be a long winded process as it ejects shortwaves off but if pressure rises enough to the ne then we could see enough forcing to disrupt the trough sending the salvation shortwave further into southern Europe.

Anyway thats the reading between the lines of the further outlook, it could all change tomorrow but as Steve suggests if the upstream pattern changes then there is hope for something colder".

Post 544

[ITSY]

06Z definately an outlier - and it is an outlier, not an outliner by the way - never heard of an 'outliner' before. It throws up, as a TWO member said, a madden-esk scenario that the daily express would credit itself to after yesterdays sensationalist headlines. Whilst the GFS averages will change (and perhaps decrease in temperature as the runs go on) I very much doubt we'll see something as swift as the on 06Z operational run. I reckon the next couple of runs will give an indicator as to whether the operational is out on its own or whether it has caught onto something. I think it will be the former for the time being - and I think that, whilst temperatures will drop, it will take weeks of fluctuating temperatures to get anything remotely close to what the operational suggests. Could be wrong (and would love to be) but thats my feeling. Nice to see some proper UK cold on a run though...

also, no point in listenning to GFS if ECM isn't with it.