Model Output Discussion - Late October Onwards

[cold snap]

if you want cold charts in f1 or nearer the time dont look at gfs ukmo ecmf.or infact any model member tonight.because there is not anything on offer.

[wolvesfan]

Hi all,tonights ECMWF looks like dire for anyone wanting cold the euro high set to intensify and by the end of the runs takes us back to where we were a month ago.

[summer blizzard]

GFS12z ensembles offer a split from the 11th however there looks to be little to look forward to until then. I suppose it looks drier which is a plus.

[Isolated Frost]

It's tricky for Yilas CH- after such a dire scandi start- but I do feel the pv will move towards nw siberia and heights continue high over greenland so I foresee at least one spell of cold north and north west winds- but it could be quite close in my opinion.

[Mark Parsons]

As usual there is to much emphasis on FI!! The roller coaster is definitely picking up pace lol !!!

[Snowmadsam]

As usual there is to much emphasis on FI!! The roller coaster is definitely picking up pace lol !!!

Absolutely

[Summer Sun]

ECM Is looking good tonight, nothing cold for a while yet. I can't see anything like November 2010 this year.

[wimblettben]

The worst part of it also is that this Atlantic based weather we are having doesn't seem to wan't to give the UK proper windy day's!

I highly doubt the Atlantic is in an active phase currently though as some have said. As all I have seen currently is moderate rain with mere gentle breezes.

And models yet again look dire for next week for any proper cold weather.

[Uncle_Barty]

if you want cold charts in f1 or nearer the time dont look at gfs ukmo ecmf.or infact any model member tonight.because there is not anything on offer.

It's "Eff Eye" (FI)

F1 goes round and round on tarmac at 200mph.

I see absolutely nothing in the model output that suggests anything other than average to mild, sometimes very mild, and more unsettled the further N and W you go. Even in deep FI the HP shown over Greenland is not "supported" by strong heights, therefore no signs of northern blocking.

So.. a continuation of the overall very benign weather this autumn. Not too exciting for weather watchers, but at least it makes being out and about more pleasant for the time of year and keeps the heating bills down

Edited November 2, 2011 by Jim_AFCB

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM Is looking good tonight, nothing cold for a while yet. I can't see anything like November 2010 this year.

think I agree with that, bit early yet for cold, in my location, wait another month and hope the cold arrives then, cold synoptics for next 3 weeks waste really for 100m asl in the south

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here's my evening look at the 12zs from GFS, UKMO and ECM.

GFS tonight shows a cold front moving slowly East over Britain with heavy rain and strong winds. In its wake the weather becomes more showery with lighter winds as Low pressure transfers South of the UK. This means an unsettled weekend for the South with further rain at times while the North sees more settled conditions for a while which extends slowly South over the early days of next week. From then on the UK becomes a buffer zone for Low pressures coming in off the Atlantic and meeting the block of High pressure over Europe. Troughs would make it into the UK bringing further rain at times and strong winds too before dying in situ. Towards the latter stages of the run the weather remains very changeable and colder as winds turn Northerly for a while.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a period of 850's slightly above the long term average. Despite this temperatures do fall steadily as we dip deeper into Autumn and with some members showing a more mobile westerly set up with rain at times. The operationals cold snap in FI was much on the colder side of the pack for this period.

UKMO also shows a couple of unsettled days with strong winds and rain giving way to thundery showers later tomorrow and Friday. Low pressure disrupts and re-centres over France with rain pushing North over Central and Eastern Britain on Saturday dying out on Sunday to leave cloudy damp conditions. Further North and West a drier weekend seems likely with some brightness at times and temperatures would be nearer to normal than of late. Early next week deep Low pressure to the NW looks like bringing a return to mild and unsettled conditions with the wettest and windiest conditions for the North and West.

ECM follows the same format over the coming days with a wet day for some in England and Wales on Saturday before drier conditions spread across from the West on Sunday. Next week sees Low pressure well away to the NW with troughing South from its centre to the West of the UK affecting mostly those areas with some rain at times. In Eastern areas a lot of dry weather ensues. The current mild conditions give way to temperatures nearer to normal before the milder conditions return later next week towards the end of the run as a slack Southerly flow blows over Britain.

In Summary tonight there continues to be a block over Europe stopping the natural West to East progression of Atlantic depressions. Instead they stall close to the UK bringing rain to principally Western and Northwestern areas while the weather stays drier and occasionally brighter in the East. Temperatures will mostly be close to or a little above normal for all. Once more tonight apart from a colder day or two in deep FI from GFS (which is an outlier in the ensembles) there is no chart shown in the operational's of the big three that suggest anything remotely wintry for the foreseeable future.

[Frosty.]

A dull as ditch water outlook from the 12z runs, the blocking euro high continuing to block for another month in all probability and atlantic depressions not allowed to do their usual..so it's back to the usual mild and mostly dry, often breezy, occasionally windy but mainly bright in the east but northern and western areas probably exposed to what little influence the atlantic will have but high pressure will bring a fairly sunny weekend to the north and into next week the best weather will be across the east and southeast but the models are a million miles from the daily mail siberian outlook.

[damianslaw]

Lots of dispondency in this thread today - indicative of the charts continuing to show a static picture for the foreseeable future.

Euro blocks are very stubborn beasts.

Lots of patience is needed at present, but surely the block will dissipate in time, the predominance of southerlies this autumn has been exceptional.... I expect the charts by the weekend to be painting a much more positive outlook for those wanting something at least a bit more seasonal as we head into mid month - the trigger being lowering strong heights to our NW having enough energy to punch there way into the high and a more meridional atlantic flow taking shape. I did say last Friday anyone wanting to see a change to something much cooler had best refrain from looking at the charts for a week or so..

[ITSY]

summary feelings for todays outlook: meh

summary feelings for todays mail: S***

[Derp Patrol]

Very typical set up for the time of year I'd day.. getting a tad cooler perhaps but it is nice weather, today was sunny and still warm enough to not wear a jumper during the day. Cold weather is nice but i'd rather save it for January/late December. I think people have forgotten that we are in the UK and the past few winters are not the norm for the UK, average November highs are still double figures in November for my area and aren't much lower elsewhere so people expecting ice days already are being a tad optimistic! It is nice to know that we are not too far from the time of year where days will start getting longer again and only 4 months till Spring.. for the meantime though it looks like staying mild for a while yet.

[summer blizzard]

While fairly dry, the GFS18z is once again sickening in terms of a cold outlook.

[wolvesfan]

Hi all,

slightly better from the models this morning both showing movement in the polar vortex from around next weekend its a long way out but could lead to some opurtunity for a rise in pressure to our N/NW,something to maybe look out for.think we could do with some low pressure to our south though that euro high needs it fuel supply dissrupting.

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here's a look at the 00zs for today Thursday November 3rd.

GFS in the reliable timeframe continues with the unsettled and changeable theme. Today would see heavy showers with some thunder around though not all places will see them. After a spell of more prolonged rain for Central and Eastern areas tonight tomorrow shows another showery day. The showers would be fewer and more slow moving but still heavy where they do occur. Over the weekend Low pressure develops over the near Continent with rain spreading up from the South across the South and East of Britain. After a mild day today and tomorrow temperatures should fall back to nearer normal levels as a chilly NE wind develops in the South over the weekend. Through next week the UK is exposed to the Atlantic with further troughs buffering up against the UK bringing rain at times and relatively mild weather continuing. Through FI the weather remains distinctly mild for a while with further rain at times though there is signs of a change in distant FI of High pressure developing to the NW dragging much colder uppers down from the North towards the UK.

The GFS Ensembles show an all too familiar outlook this morning with the 850's average way above where they should be for early to mid November. The operational for London was above the ensemble mean towards the end of the run while for Aberdeen the cold snap at the end has little support. It is a long time since I have seen such universal agreement between the members of the continuation of generally mild uninterrupted conditions. rain at times occurs too with a drier day or two in the South early next week.

UKMO this morning is not dissimilar to GFS with a drier spell early next week with a return to very mild Southerly winds again by midweek.

ECM finally completes the hat trick with the exception of a cooler day or two at the start of next week. Southerly winds are then shown to return with origins way down South giving us the chance of some remarkably high temperatures once more later next week with the chance of some rain at times for the North and West principally.

In Summary today there is not one crumb of comfort for UK cold lovers this morning. Dismiss what the press says the facts are I can see nothing other than mild and occasionally very mild weather over the next few weeks as winds remain for the most part from a Southerly quarter. There will be some rain at times but with the European High as strong as ever in a week or so there might not be much in the SE. There will however be a couple of cooler and wet days this weekend as Low pressure to the SE briefly influences the weather over this weekend. The GFS ensembles show complete uniformity in keeping average 850's for the South a good 2-3C above the long term average throughout the run. Until that stubborn Euro High decays or shifts there is little prospect of any major pattern change anytime soon.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the reliable timeframe, the azores ridge looks like bringing scotland and n.ireland a fine weekend with long sunny spells and light winds with temps around average but rather chilly nights with a touch of frost, the exception on saturday night could be southeast scotland which could be cloudy with outbreaks of rain along with much of england & wales, saturday itself looks rainy in the southeast with this rain band pushing north towards bonfire night. Early next week looks fairly sunny in northern britain but a cloudier picture for much of the south and east of england although the rain will have gone by then.

[Duane S.]

GFS flirting with rising heights to our NW. A sign of things to come maybe but not as early as that IMO. Too much energy in the northern arm of the pfj for the forseeable future for any quick dismantling of that robust Euro high.

However, I think more charts toying with the idea of mid-westerly based Atlantic ridging into Greenland will be the case over the coming days/ weeks.

[ITSY]

more ecnouraging FI today

[rich1]

Mild ramping all over the shop right now on all the weather forums and cheers of delight ringing across the Met Office bods doing the tv forecasts. Sian Lloyd must be dancing with joy right now but these sorts of charts sadly tend to promote it. I despise Euro highs with a heartfelt passion as they get 'stuck'. I wouldnt bother looking for anything for a couple of weeks

having said that, these things can and do change. 2009 and the start of november 2010 were, for wont of a better word, cack except for those who love floods, warm temperatures or rain. if its going to be mild, these patterns wont promote days of incessant rain everywhere, so guess it could be worse

Living outside britain, my window for cold is between mid december and january 9 when I am back on holiday, least you fellas have more time than I do to wait but its a boring outlook for most of this month presently. Some rain may penetrate from the west, while the east stays largely dry and not much frost, fog or anything exciting. But it will/should improve, just need something upstream to give this pattern a kick. Better now than say December 1 for these charts I suppose

[Ladyofthestorm]

Im getting a sense of de ja vue out in Fl land...

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111103/00/348/airpressure.png

[Radiating Dendrite]

Im getting a sense of de ja vue out in Fl land...

http://hw.nwstatic.c...airpressure.png

From last year?

[Liam J]

Im getting a sense of de ja vue out in Fl land...

http://hw.nwstatic.c...airpressure.png

Don't forget it's just that, FI land.

I don't buy the GFS models evolution, over doing the HP to the NW which seems to pop up out of nowhere in low res.

Most likely gone on the 6z.

Edited November 3, 2011 by Liam J