Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

[Frosty.]

The Euro block eventually gets flattened

Oh I wish it would (i'd love to flatten it myself) but the ecm is hanging on to it for dear life, the problem is we may get rid of the euro block and then have the azores high pushing across the south, cold zoneality would remain north of the uk and we replace the stagnant mild spell for blowtorch mild instead.

Edited November 17, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Oh I wish it would (i'd love to flatten it myself) but the ecm is hanging on to it for dear life, the problem is we may get rid of the euro block and then have the azores high pushing across the south, cold zoneality would remain north of the uk and we replace the stagnant mild spell for blowtorch mild instead.

I did say a few nights ago it was looking bad frosty.

Lets be thankful its not winter as one of the 3 main months would have been down the toilet if the last month would have happened in DJ or F.

My opinion is we need to see the jet blast this high to mongolia and hope for something better upstream in the aftermath.

im hoping to see an atlantic victory in the coming days,i'll happily take my chances of something better down the line

[La Bise]

Nothing indicates there would be something better replacing the high though, if the Atlantic pushes through, it's SWlies all the way and with them there is zero chance of anything seasonnal (unlike the chance of some inversion cold with the high in situ).

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Nothing indicates there would be something better replacing the high though, if the Atlantic pushes through, it's SWlies all the way and with them there is zero chance of anything seasonnal (unlike the chance of some inversion cold with the high in situ).

I know its a risk but surely most people are sick of this now and at least an atlantic onslught gives those esp up north the chance for a bit of snow if the jet digs south.granted for the south its chocolate teapot material but im afraid its everyman for himself now,any port in a storm lol

[Jane Louise]

NOOB here. First post so go easy on us! Have been trying to follow this thread in the search of something wintry for the Western Alps.

Has anybody been following the jet stream in the models? Mr Fish and the BBC chap both point to the jet as part of our current mild stuck in a rut. Just had a look at the GFS charts for jet stream. From my very un trained eye it looks like it is trying to move further north (from 60+) which would indicate a change to current patterns?

Have I just made this up or is there anything in the jet stream modeling to indicate change

Thanks all

J

Welcome to Netweather Jonny Enjoy your stay .

[rbw]

Nothing indicates there would be something better replacing the high though, if the Atlantic pushes through, it's SWlies all the way and with them there is zero chance of anything seasonnal (unlike the chance of some inversion cold with the high in situ).

Any form of precipitation would be welcome to over come this severe lack of rainfall but we been stuck in a general pattern since last January and unfortunatly with the Atlantic seemingly weak I am not sure whether it will really break through

[damianslaw]

Well managed 4 days of restraint from the models, and to be honest wish I hadn't bothered looking at them today, with no certainty yet of a pattern change to colder conditions anytime soon.

Short term - a stuttering atlantic crashing into the high pressure forcing it southwards enabling generally windier and wetter conditions to move across the country but never particularly wet.

GFS and ECM keen on strengthening the polar vortex to our north next week meaning a flat jetstream pattern is going to develop with mild southwesterly/westerly airflow - a record mild November now looking increasingly likely.

Longer term - could go either way i.e. we maintain strong heights over europe with a strong flat jet, or and very plausible the polar vortex remains fairly weak to our north and more favourable upstream pattern develops over North America allowing strong heights to build to our north and a much more favourably positioned azores high.. meaning polar maritime air and potentially much colder conditions from the north.

I feel the trigger to a much colder outlook will be a deep low pressure tracking just to the north of scotland with rapidly rising heights to our north as the azores high is forced to ridge NW - this will only occur if we see a change in the pattern over N America.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

It looks as though our old friend the Euro high is putting up a bit more of a fight on the 18z run as the deep low that was tracking towards Scotland next Wednesday has been repelled all the way to Iceland. Having said that by next Thursday there is one hell of a low pressure knocking on the door of Scotland. I'm just hoping for a bit of GFS FI eye candy to cheer me up before I go to bed. On a plus note someone mentioned on TWO that J laminate floori or what ever he is called has mentioned on his twitter page that conditions in December are expected to be very similar to last year re Northern Blocking. We shall see.

Edited November 17, 2011 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[nick sussex]

Brace yourselves! is everyone sitting down, these comments tonight from NOAA in the USA:

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE

FORECAST DOMAIN AS THE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST RETROGRADES AND 500-HPA

HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

Full discussions here:

http://www.cpc.ncep....day/fxus06.html

The latest map for 8-14day.

http://www.cpc.ncep....14day/500mb.php

We still have the problem of trying to get troughing far enough east, otherwise even with higher pressure over the ne USA, we might still be stuck on the wrong side of any troughing.

But given the recent output any upstream pattern change would be welcome.

That excerpt has copied the links across, their discussions are always interesting and they always highlight keywords that link to a glossary.

Edited November 17, 2011 by nick sussex

[Geordiesnow]

Interesting 18Z I must admit but how it develops the potential SW'ly is different to the ECM with those 2 deep lows(I assume they are ex tropical storms considering where they originated from) but because of the strength of the lows, it flattens the high somewhat before it builds again and we get a cooler WNW'ly.

In actual fact apart from Thursday, next week would be quite average with some chilly nights where skies remain clear so I don't think run should be classed as a mild run in the medium term really.

Of course it will be subject to change but the outlook is perhaps not as clear cut as people think, still no chance of snow for the foreseeable future though.

[mountain shadow]

The latest GFS run shows just that Nick. The Canadian maritime ridge is their but we still cannot get the atlantic trough far enough east to introduce the colder flow becuase of the sustained heights over Europe.

Still, it gives a crumb of hope.

[johnholmes]

Brace yourselves! is everyone sitting down, these comments tonight from NOAA in the USA:

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE

FORECAST DOMAIN AS THE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST RETROGRADES AND 500-HPA

HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

Full discussions here:

http://www.cpc.ncep....day/fxus06.html

The latest map for 8-14day.

http://www.cpc.ncep....14day/500mb.php

We still have the problem of trying to get troughing far enough east, otherwise even with higher pressure over the ne USA, we might still be stuck on the wrong side of any troughing.

But given the recent output any upstream pattern change would be welcome.

That excerpt has copied the links across, their discussions are always interesting and they always highlight keywords that link to a glossary.

A comprehensive post there from Nick but I would suggest care.

The NOAA idea is something I suggested a few days ago in the last pdf I did.

Since then I've felt that the deveopment of any meridional flow over the north american continent was less likely. If you read the full text from NOAA they grade both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks on the scale of 3 out of 5. That is a downgrade over the past 5 or 6 days. This, although slight, does suggest to me that they are far from sure that this wave change is going to occur.

Another point to bear in mind. When I posted the lrf I suggested that there were two possibilities IF the flow became more meridional

1) it phased out before it got into the area which would affect this part of the world

2) it did make for a more meridional flow over the northern hemisphere.

I think, for the moment, I would suggest that 1) is the most likely outcome.

I montor all the NOAA output, text and charts on a daily basis. If I see anything to suggest a major wave length change I will post such ideas in here.

[Rocheydub]

The latest GFS run shows just that Nick. The Canadian maritime ridge is their but we still cannot get the atlantic trough far enough east to introduce the colder flow becuase of the sustained heights over Europe.

Still, it gives a crumb of hope.

But.... The heights over Europe are blown to smithereens at the end of the run.... Dreamy FI land!

[bluearmy]

A comprehensive post there from Nick but I would suggest care.

The NOAA idea is something I suggested a few days ago in the last pdf I did.

Since then I've felt that the deveopment of any meridional flow over the north american continent was less likely. If you read the full text from NOAA they grade both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks on the scale of 3 out of 5. That is a downgrade over the past 5 or 6 days. This, although slight, does suggest to me that they are far from sure that this wave change is going to occur.

Another point to bear in mind. When I posted the lrf I suggested that there were two possibilities IF the flow became more meridional

1) it phased out before it got into the area which would affect this part of the world

2) it did make for a more meridional flow over the northern hemisphere.

I think, for the moment, I would suggest that 1) is the most likely outcome.

I montor all the NOAA output, text and charts on a daily basis. If I see anything to suggest a major wave length change I will post such ideas in here.

again no ecm ens input into noaa cpc output. this makes me less confident in its offering. good to see the 552dam finally making headway as far south as the midlands in week 2 though we require a zonal pattern to achieve it.

[J10]

NOOB here. First post so go easy on us! Have been trying to follow this thread in the search of something wintry for the Western Alps.

Has anybody been following the jet stream in the models? Mr Fish and the BBC chap both point to the jet as part of our current mild stuck in a rut. Just had a look at the GFS charts for jet stream. From my very un trained eye it looks like it is trying to move further north (from 60+) which would indicate a change to current patterns?

Have I just made this up or is there anything in the jet stream modeling to indicate change

Thanks all

J

Look here for a bit more detail on the Alps weather

, as for any cold weather in the western area though, this remains very elusive.

[nick sussex]

A comprehensive post there from Nick but I would suggest care.

The NOAA idea is something I suggested a few days ago in the last pdf I did.

Since then I've felt that the deveopment of any meridional flow over the north american continent was less likely. If you read the full text from NOAA they grade both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks on the scale of 3 out of 5. That is a downgrade over the past 5 or 6 days. This, although slight, does suggest to me that they are far from sure that this wave change is going to occur.

Another point to bear in mind. When I posted the lrf I suggested that there were two possibilities IF the flow became more meridional

1) it phased out before it got into the area which would affect this part of the world

2) it did make for a more meridional flow over the northern hemisphere.

I think, for the moment, I would suggest that 1) is the most likely outcome.

I montor all the NOAA output, text and charts on a daily basis. If I see anything to suggest a major wave length change I will post such ideas in here.

Yes we should be cautious as the problem is trying to get troughing east of the UK and those positive heights to the se are reluctant to leave, given whats happened so far even if we get a bit more amplification it could just dig the troughing further south and if we're on the wrong side we just end up with yet more southerlies.

We'll just have to see what happens over the next few days, I have everything crossed for a change.

[damianslaw]

A comprehensive post there from Nick but I would suggest care.

The NOAA idea is something I suggested a few days ago in the last pdf I did.

Since then I've felt that the deveopment of any meridional flow over the north american continent was less likely. If you read the full text from NOAA they grade both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks on the scale of 3 out of 5. That is a downgrade over the past 5 or 6 days. This, although slight, does suggest to me that they are far from sure that this wave change is going to occur.

Another point to bear in mind. When I posted the lrf I suggested that there were two possibilities IF the flow became more meridional

1) it phased out before it got into the area which would affect this part of the world

2) it did make for a more meridional flow over the northern hemisphere.

I think, for the moment, I would suggest that 1) is the most likely outcome.

I montor all the NOAA output, text and charts on a daily basis. If I see anything to suggest a major wave length change I will post such ideas in here.

Good to read your thoughts on NOAA output and the possible suggested change in pattern over N America. Will be interesting to see whether you feel any change will cause a major wave length change in time... it may be a struggle as you suggest but it could be a slowly evolving development that may catch some unawares.. I will be closely monitoring any pattern change over N America in the coming days as I feel it could be the key to unlocking all that bottled up cold to our north..

[johnholmes]

Good to read your thoughts on NOAA output and the possible suggested change in pattern over N America. Will be interesting to see whether you feel any change will cause a major wave length change in time... it may be a struggle as you suggest but it could be a slowly evolving development that may catch some unawares.. I will be closely monitoring any pattern change over N America in the coming days as I feel it could be the key to unlocking all that bottled up cold to our north..

Yes it is the key, in our part of the northern hemisphere, in synoptic terms, to 'unlocking ... to our north'.

Just how the teleconnections may impact on this effect is hard to say. Having looked closely at various items, AO, NAO, MJO, 30mb temperatures along with the ENSO summary its not that encouraging. However, apparent unlikely developments do occur. Like you say all we can do is monitor as many of the variables as possible and await events!

[cold snap]

strange as it may seam the key to unlock the door might get us even in more trouble.it really is a case of stick or twist ,i would take a twist now and risk everything to change this pattern.but pushing the whole pattern east is becoming extremly difficult

[The PIT]

The Low still there on the 00 oz if it remains on the runs it maybe the only thing of interest weather wise this month. A feature well worth watching.

There is another windy spell at T117 for the northwest but nothing special for the area.

Edited November 18, 2011 by The PIT

[Iceaxecrampon]

00Z for early December.

This morning.

Same time yesterday.

FI but still a trend.

[rich1]

Would be happy enough for us to break out of the Euro high pattern which the GFS says could well happen and take our chances with some mobility

southerly tracking lows have been a feature of recent winters, which may unlock the door for something more interesting at some point next month. 2009 is perhaps a worthwhile starting point of how patterns could evolve. Prepared to be patient on that front

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

At least we will be under "green air" 546 dam from midnight tonight. It should feel more like november. And if the charts are anything to go by there are a few cold shots in FI.

Edited November 18, 2011 by saintpeter

[Gavin Hannah]

I get the feeling that the euro high is a bit like champagne cork. Lets hope that when it pops, all that polar air floods south.

As much as i wuld love another record breaking winter here, there are a lot of ppl sweating ovr the lack of snow across european ski resorts.

I have picked up on the atlantic hp moving north in some of the gfs runs. 2 my untrained eye, wuld i be correct in assuming that if it reached greenland, it wuld b party time?

[Isolated Frost]

At least we will be under "green air" 546 dam from midnight tonight. It should feel more like november. And if the charts are anything to go by there are a few cold shots in FI.

Urrm... only the far W of Ireland will see about 2 hours in sub-546 air, and that's under 2-3c uppers so it will still be mild for the time of year.

Monday and Tuesday look cool for much of the nation. Wednesday milder but nightime cooler again in the north. Thursday cool in the north, midlands wet with a crashing low, and south milder. Thursday night/Friday much cooler with widespread snow above 200m looking more likely.

This weekend however continues the warm pattern with a lot of cloud likely.