29th November - 6th December 2011 Atlantic Storms

[Heisenberg]

It's actually been quite gusty here this afternoon, no idea on the speed but enough to shake the house!

Do you live near the 3 little pigs? I'll huff and I'll puff

[Cat 5]

Looks like Ayrshire can expect a hammering tomorrow. Looking forward to seeing the max gust!

[snowlover2009]

its been over 60mph winds in yorkshire today and the storm hasn't even arrived and lets face it calendar said 70mph gusts, so we may even see higher.

[The watcher]

I guess that would be about right at the T-18 hours or so range. 'Be prepared' sounds spot on for me with the information to hand (and we don't have as much as they do!). The next level of 'take action' or similar must come when the degree of certainty is more clearly detailed and understood in the hours before any potential big event. Damned if they do, damned if they don't

It could have a major effect on life and property if they get it wrong by a few mph or a few miles either way, and people do or don't head the advice.

True coast, finer details could tweek a little within 18hours. I'm still concerned though, it's very rare for this part of NI to get winds of that caliber. We are usually on the softer end of UK storms. I will definitely be keeping an eye on things in my town, meto warnings or not.

[sn0wman]

If it's possible the latest GFS 12z run actually looks like an upgrade, with the pressure dropping to 956mb! :help:

[Cat 5]

Out of interest, hurricane Omar in 2008 recorded sustained (of 1 minute) winds of 135mph and that only recorded a minimum 958mb.

[Liam J]

Pressure is lower on the 12z around 955hpa.

Damaging winds first over northern Ireland and Southern Scotland then transferring to SW Scotland and NW England, Western Scotland and Isles.

80-90mph gusts possibly higher over coasts and headlands.

Also baring in mind models can underestimate the wind speeds on occasions, much like today over NW England.

Isotach 10m mean wind charts km/h, 75km/h (47mph) mean speed almost into central Cumbria, severe gales over land.

Edited December 7, 2011 by Liam J

[Aaron]

Wow,.. that's the strongest winds I have ever seen projected for my area.. and they almost always end up stronger

Edited December 7, 2011 by Aaron

[Harsh Climate]

I think there will be gusts just about topping 100mph, I don't know why the met office can't just say that instead of saying there may be gusts even higher than 80mph.. If they did that, I'm sure more people would take notice and stay indoors.

Edited December 7, 2011 by Harsh Climate

[Matty M]

Just look at them Isobars, extreme winds piling into southwestern Scotland

[weatherobsuk]

That's 200 miles from Carlisle to Fort William, with a little room for error north/south of the system track anyone within this 200 mile zone will see winds up to and over 100mph going from this. 75-90mph further south, but even this is nothing to scoff about given the ground is saturated from heavy rains/snowfall and the tree's are 'heavy' from so much moisture.

I got the garden stuff packed away now, candles & torch at the ready just incase.

[gottolovethisweather]

Not sure if this has been posted before but here's the BBC MetO output issued earlier today. The occlusion seems to be the main focus of interest at this stage, so if anyone is concerned, keep your eye on the many realtime satellite links nearer the time.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/16068618

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited December 7, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Bluebreezer54]

It's actually been quite gusty here this afternoon, no idea on the speed but enough to shake the house!

Im also quite suprised by the strength of the gusts here in NW London today. Raf Northolt just down the road from me has reported 43mph.

[Liam J]

GFS isotach 10m mean wind mph, sustained winds of 60-65mph around many coasts, NW England, W & SW Scotland, N Ireland.

May rival the January 2005 storm which produced wind gusts of 90-100mph over Cumbria with St Bees exceeding 100mph, a big mess was left in it's wake, large trees blown down, rows of terrace houses with all the tiles ripped off and smashed the street and homes with chimneys collapsed laying on the roof.

Edited December 7, 2011 by Liam J

[Matty M]

If you want to go further and see what the highest hypothetical gusts you can look at the 850hpa winds, this could come down

in downdrafts near the centre of the low wrap around.

So we are talking about 100 knots or 115mph or 185 km/hr

[ZONE 51]

I think there will be gusts just about topping 100mph, I don't know why the met office can't just say that instead of saying there may be gusts even higher than 80mph.. If they did that, I'm sure more people would take notice and stay indoors.

Gusts could be more then a 100mph

Im also quite suprised by the strength of the gusts here in NW London today. Raf Northolt just down the road from me has reported 43mph.

Yes its been very gusty around 40mph inland here, tomorow there is likely to be gales across the Southeast, i would expect 50+mph gusts inland and more coast/channel, we sit on the edge of a hurricane force storm. Edited December 7, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[AlexM94]

our local weather woman reckons we will get gusts of upto 85mph by around lunchtime tomorrow coming from the SW before easing down for a bit by dinner time as the centre passes over us and then it will quickly turn northerly and possibility of gusts reaching 100mph until around midnight and then wind changes to NW and gusts still over 80mph and easing down slowly during friday! so why havent the met got a red warning for us in the far north?

[Coast]

New thread here peeps!

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71833-atlantic-storms-7th-december-2011-onwards/