29th November - 6th December 2011 Atlantic Storms

[Marie]

What wind speeds do you think we could see down here on the south coast?

[Summer Sun]

Really? Down south, but not for south Yorkshire/north Midlands that got hammered by days of continuous snowfall, with some places getting 30 inches? Met Office really have their priorities wrong

I know around 40cm of snow fell in one day in County Durham but guess what no Red Alert yet 20 to 25cm in the south got a Red Warning.

What wind speeds do you think we could see down here on the south coast?

They should be fairly light down on the south coast so nothing to worry about.

[knocker]

The midday Atlantic chart if it's of any interest.

[Coast]

What wind speeds do you think we could see down here on the south coast?

45 to 55 mph maybe?

[Mapantz]

45 to 55 mph maybe?

Quite agree, i definitely wouldn't say light winds. Ok, not as pokey as Northern parts, but gales will develop in the channel.

[Isolated Frost]

The midday Atlantic chart if it's of any interest.

Thanks for that ws- you can now see that low south-east of greenland, should bomb now... interesting to see it beginning to appear on the satellite soon...

[gottolovethisweather]

I've cross posted this from the MOD thread.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71786-model-output-discussion-5th-december-11th-december/page__view__findpost__p__2175634

NW also now have a warning out too.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=alert;reg=5;sess=

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[The watcher]

I also don't understand their warning issues. My area is under the 88mph gusts section and only a be prepared warning is given. Not only that but we have windward facing coasts here that will see flooding. Mainly due to breaking waves on the coast walls. I will be down videoing and getting pictures for that.

[tonbridgemole]

East coast flood risk ....Thames barrier http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/3days/125305.aspx

[jello]

I also don't understand their warning issues. My area is under the 88mph gusts section and only a be prepared warning is given. Not only that but we have windward facing coasts here that will see flooding. Mainly due to breaking waves on the coast walls. I will be down videoing and getting pictures for that.

I also didn't understand warnings. I am fully expecting parts of NI to be included in the RED warning, Look just as bad for some of us

[Liam J]

I also don't understand their warning issues. My area is under the 88mph gusts section and only a be prepared warning is given. Not only that but we have windward facing coasts here that will see flooding. Mainly due to breaking waves on the coast walls. I will be down videoing and getting pictures for that.

Exactly, on the Meto site I have 85mph gusts predicted for my location which is actually higher than some of areas in the red alert?!

Just read the Netw alert and it states gusts of 60-70mph over NW England, the mean speeds being progged are nearly these strengths, 60mph mean speeds on the Cumbrian coast, pushing 70mph offshore, and it's only going to gust 60-70mph, makes no sense imo and highly underestimated.

Perhaps a shift north is expected on the final track? but nothing to suggest this atm with the strongest wind speeds further south than the mentioned warnings.

[shedhead]

Lets face it, Warnings can only be a guide, people need to use commonm sense too. Weather knows no geograpical bounderies, if you live 50m or 50 miles away from the red zone you have to look at worse case senario, not simply assume for instance that just because the red warning only refers to Dumfries & Galloway that N Cumbria won't be as badly hit.

Edited December 7, 2011 by shedhead

[Coast]

I also don't understand their warning issues. My area is under the 88mph gusts section and only a be prepared warning is given.

I guess that would be about right at the T-18 hours or so range. 'Be prepared' sounds spot on for me with the information to hand (and we don't have as much as they do!). The next level of 'take action' or similar must come when the degree of certainty is more clearly detailed and understood in the hours before any potential big event. Damned if they do, damned if they don't

It could have a major effect on life and property if they get it wrong by a few mph or a few miles either way, and people do or don't head the advice.

[johnholmes]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KufYaElfDqk&feature=player_embedded

I like the idea of a video to cover the major areas of concern-not seen that done ahead of an event before. I hope it does not get over used though.

[Coast]

makes no sense imo and highly underestimated.

But then until it happens, it's can only ever be a forecast, not a nowcast?

[snowlover2009]

Just another day in Britain only joking

What wind speeds can I expect, am I going to get it bad? :smiliz65: :smilz38:

[johnholmes]

Really? Down south, but not for south Yorkshire/north Midlands that got hammered by days of continuous snowfall, with some places getting 30 inches? Met Office really have their priorities wrong

A rather sweeping statement and I seem to recall warnings for the heavy snowfall for this area?

off topic I know but it requires a correction.

The storm really does look like causing severe transport problems from say the Humber area northwards and especially for any exposed areas, valleys, hills, coasts, regarding the wind. Also for snow as the colder air swings in behind the low. I don't think the term blizzard conditions is OTT for many hilly areas WHERE the precipitaion charts show it falling.

Edited December 7, 2011 by johnholmes

[Aaron]

Just another day in Britain only joking

What wind speeds can I expect, am I going to get it bad? :smiliz65: :smilz38:

Met going for 55mph for Leeds, we have already come close to that today!

A rather sweeping statement and I seem to recall warnings for the heavy snowfall for this area?

Not a red warning no

[Liam J]

But then until it happens, it's can only ever be a forecast, not a nowcast?

Yes Coast I agree, I would just like to know how looking at the current guidance these predictions have been made and underestimated when quite clearly the data suggests much higher wind speeds?

75mph gust was recorded on the Cumbrian coast today with many over 60mph, if you compare the charts from today with those progged for tomorrow, far more severe.

Edited December 7, 2011 by Liam J

[Aaron]

Parts of Yorkshire have exceeded 60mph gusts today..

[johnholmes]

Yes Coast I agree, I would just like to know how looking at the current guidance these predictions have been made and underestimated when quite clearly the data suggests much higher wind speeds?

75mph gust was recorded on the Cumbrian coast today with many over 60mph, if you compare the charts from today with those progged for tomorrow, far more severe.

your opinion and its hardly likely they are not aware of how the models are behaving-come on be a touch more realistic and the comment by Coast about the sequence is correct. They WILL update and amend as the situation unfolds.

Anyone not taking sensible precautions after all the explanations on radio and TV has to be not part of the real world I would suggest.

I tried to explain yesterday that until 12hours prior to the event the exact track and depth will not be known!

Edited December 7, 2011 by johnholmes

[weatherobsuk]

http://www.buxtonweather.co.uk/ just recorded a 72mph gust this hour. The site is quite accurate in terms of locality and record keeping by the owner. We've had one or two strong gusts here further up the valley but topography plays all kinds of tricks in these parts.

[Coast]

I would just like to know how looking at the current guidance these predictions have been made and underestimated when quite clearly the data suggests much higher wind speeds?

But they may not be underestimated. It's your opinion currently that they are not as high as you were expecting but I am 100% positive that the meteorological professionals employed by the Government will be checking data far in excess of what we can see and forming a forecast that can reflect the upcoming situation as clearly and accurately as they can in the hours leading up to it.

My analogy is: I can understand many of the systems that bring the internet into my home and possibly why it isn't the fastest in the UK, but I'm not quite in possession of all the equipment, know-how and data to dig a hole outside my house and install a high-speed line to improve the download rates! :lol:

Edit: John says it in a far more succinct way than me!!

I tried to explain yesterday that until 12hours prior to the event the exact track and depth will not be known!

[Lauren]

It's actually been quite gusty here this afternoon, no idea on the speed but enough to shake the house!

[johnholmes]

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

the above sat animation is first class and shows well the system's upper cloud sheet.

Its developing the so called 'hammer-head' shape which is indicative of rapid deepening taking place.

The Fax chart shows it having dropped just 6 mb I think since 06z but due to drop down to 966mb, so a pretty impressive pressure change. Watch the buoy around 59N although it may be a touch north to really pick up the most rapid falls this evening.

Edited December 7, 2011 by johnholmes