29th November - 6th December 2011 Atlantic Storms

[ItIsGee]

Thursday potentially 11-12-13c in some parts of England and Wales at 12-2pm, that cold front should drop temps a good 4-6c for most in the space of an hour... before further falls.

10am-2pm most severe gusts for NI, Wales, Western England and Western Scotland... 2pm-7pm most severe for most eastern and southern parts, north sea storm surges a possible problem along the east yorkshire coast, east anglia, the frisian islands, nw germany and the netherlands.

The nmm only goes +36 of course so here is the chart for the latest possible timeframe, 12pm Thursday... please note that for most areas (especially east and south) the storm peaks a few hours later... so these speeds could be 10-20mph lower than their peaks.

80-90mph+ in the western isles, maybe even 100mph gusts at times.

75-85mph in northern ireland, potentially past 100mph at times.

60-75mph for much of scotland, over 90mph on some western coasts... potential to get past 175mph gusts on mountains.

40-60mph gusts for northern england, upto 75mph possible in lake district/west cumbrian coast.

50-60mph gusts for north wales and the midlands, potentially 75mph plus in west wales.

30-50mph for southern england and south wales.

I'd expect to up that gust speed by at least 10mph for southern england, south wales, eastern england, and perhaps 20mph for northern scotland and eastern scotland... take care folks.

Thanks for the heads up. It's noisy here in Rochdale and not even an orange warning! I'll be out in it all day. I'll report back any findings! Stay safe people!

[Coast]

Convective elements of this storm show things have got a lot worse in terms of damaging potential:

Not seen a gust chart that includes the pink area over Scotland at all.

Not confined to Scotland either:

Potential for all sorts of high wind, gusts and convective activity including hail and tornadoes?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Whats it looking like for us down here in the south? I havn't been following the weather much had a quick flick through the forum...It is very windy here this morning woke me up :S

[Coast]

Whats it looking like for us down here in the south?

Windy, not excessive (in comparison to our friends in the North). A possibility of some isolated funnel/tornado type activity through the middle band of the country and a little more activity on coasts adjoining the North sea, with a possible storm surge to keep an eye out for in those areas.

[Liam J]

Thursday potentially 11-12-13c in some parts of England and Wales at 12-2pm, that cold front should drop temps a good 4-6c for most in the space of an hour... before further falls.

10am-2pm most severe gusts for NI, Wales, Western England and Western Scotland... 2pm-7pm most severe for most eastern and southern parts, north sea storm surges a possible problem along the east yorkshire coast, east anglia, the frisian islands, nw germany and the netherlands.

The nmm only goes +36 of course so here is the chart for the latest possible timeframe, 12pm Thursday... please note that for most areas (especially east and south) the storm peaks a few hours later... so these speeds could be 10-20mph lower than their peaks.

80-90mph+ in the western isles, maybe even 100mph gusts at times.

75-85mph in northern ireland, potentially past 100mph at times.

60-75mph for much of scotland, over 90mph on some western coasts... potential to get past 175mph gusts on mountains.

40-60mph gusts for northern england, upto 75mph possible in lake district/west cumbrian coast.

50-60mph gusts for north wales and the midlands, potentially 75mph plus in west wales.

30-50mph for southern england and south wales.

I'd expect to up that gust speed by at least 10mph for southern england, south wales, eastern england, and perhaps 20mph for northern scotland and eastern scotland... take care folks.

A little conservative with your estimate for NW England, had 60-65mph gusts all morning from this rather weak feature we have at the moment now compare this mornings chart with Thursday evenings. Tomorrow has mean speeds of 60mph+ over the Irish Sea and progged 56mph on the Cumbrian Coast, realistically gust of 80mph+ tomorrow easily, Meto are predicting gusts of 75-80mph well inland from here.

Edited December 7, 2011 by Liam J

[Coast]

21st OWS have their first weather alert out for the UK for tomorrow:

Expect Severe Winds greater than 45 kts in the Western UK region on 07-09 DEC for Menwith Hill, all other Western UK locations confined to 08 DEC only

Expect Severe Winds greater than 45 kts in the Eastern UK region on 08 DEC

http://ows.public.se...f.mil/index.cfm

[Liam J]

Surface wind and jet steam charts, Exceptionally strong winds cutting over Northern England, West Scotland and Northern Ireland. Over 45-50knts over land!

High level winds likely to reach the surface as very powerful damaging gusts.

St Bees head on the Cumbrian Coast recorded a gust to 75mph @ 8am and a mean speed of 51mph. Jeez what's it going to be like tomorrow!

Edited December 7, 2011 by Liam J

[Nick F]

Quite an impressive drop in central pressure in the low within 24hrs, over 30mb between 18z this evening and 18z Thursday which is classic RACY or rapid cyclogenesis - here ECM's pressure charts for those times:

Looking at GFS this morning, it looks like worst gusts (70-90mph) will arrive around noon tomorrow across western Scotland from the west, these extremely strong westerly winds then working through the central belt around mid-afternoon, the wind then looks to switch to a northwesterly after 6pm across western Scotland, with the strongest northwesterly winds then transfering across eastern Scotland and NE/E England by 9pm.

Given the strong northwesterly winds, as they transfer across the North Sea tomorrow night, look to have quite a large westerly component - it maybe the worst of any storm surge will be aimed more at the Dutch and German coasts rather than along the UK east coast - as winds will be offshore , though I suspect high tides will be higher than usual with still a risk of coastal flooding.

[Cloud 10]

Winds gusting to 75mph even now on the coast of NW england.

Xc weather winds

Should be an interesting chart tomorrow afternoon and evening!

Watch the storm develop and approach as we head into tomorrow.

Satellite: Europe – yr.no

[johnholmes]

Quite an impressive drop in central pressure in the low within 24hrs, over 30mb between 18z this evening and 18z Thursday which is classic RACY or rapid cyclogenesis - here ECM's pressure charts for those times:

Looking at GFS this morning, it looks like worst gusts (70-90mph) will arrive around noon tomorrow across western Scotland from the west, these extremely strong westerly winds then working through the central belt around mid-afternoon, the wind then looks to switch to a northwesterly after 6pm across western Scotland, with the strongest northwesterly winds then transfering across eastern Scotland and NE/E England by 9pm.

Given the strong northwesterly winds, as they transfer across the North Sea tomorrow night, look to have quite a large westerly component - it maybe the worst of any storm surge will be aimed more at the Dutch and German coasts rather than along the UK east coast - as winds will be offshore , though I suspect high tides will be higher than usual with still a risk of coastal flooding.

yes it does look like the worst storm surge may be as you suggest Nick, certainly re that and winds a storm to watch carefully and for folk to pay attention to any warnings.

[Liam J]

Winds gusting to 75mph even now on the coast of NW england.

Xc weather winds

Should be an interesting chart tomorrow afternoon and evening!

Watch the storm develop and approach as we head into tomorrow.

Satellite: Europe – yr.no

Tell me about it I'm right on the coast and not had much sleep! the winds are being underestimated tomorrow, i wouldn't be surprised if N England recorded 90mph gusts, should be quite easy given we hit 75mph this morning! Meto have upgraded the wind speed further for my town up to 85mph.

Can anyone explain why we have no warnings in NW England? gusting 70-80mph here and it is VERY SERIOUS, I can't go outside, the roof is creaking and the tiles are smashing up and down

Edited December 7, 2011 by Liam J

[Coast]

It does look like the main area of swell will be heading toward the Belgium/Holland coast:

[Coast]

Dutch MetO, KNMI warnings out for the coastal waters of Flushing, Hook of Holland, IJmuiden, Texel, Harlingen, Rottum, Delfzijl: west to northwest force 9. Zierikzee, IJsselmeer, Marken: west force 8:

Also Dutch continental shelf. Thames, Humber, German Bight, Dogger, Forties: west to northwest 9 and Dover: west 8

http://www.knmi.nl/w...shelf.html#Kust

[Lauren]

*cough* Storm Lauren *cough*

They mentioned on the radio the SE could see a high water rise and may catch the tail ends of these winds.

[Coast]

They mentioned on the radio the SE could see a high water rise and may catch the tail ends of these winds.

Tides are high in the SE at the moment anyway but peak on Saturday at around 7.0M without any other influences. Typically:

[Liam J]

Another upgrade in wind strengths for NW England tomorrow on the 6z, even stronger than Scotland by 18z Thursday!

The fact that the GFS can underestimate wind speeds is a tad more worrying as well, 75mph gust on the coast here this morning, some 20mph or more higher than progged.

Very damaging over SW Scotland and NW England.

Edited December 7, 2011 by Liam J

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Bored of this weather now..Who cares about the wind?? Bring on the snow..

[Liam J]

Meto have removed the early wind warning?

[Coast]

Bored of this weather now..Who cares about the wind?? Bring on the snow..

Ermm it hasn't got started down here?......

Meto have removed the early wind warning?

Maybe an update coming with more detail?

[Liam J]

Maybe an update coming with more detail?

Yes as the focus is more over SW Scotland and NW England on latest guidance, they predict gusts of 85mph here and 75mph inland.

[edo]

Any one have any idea how much precipitation we are looking at coming through on Thursday night behind the storm....and from an IMBY point of view are the uppers and temps going to be cold enough to see a snow event...here in the east.

[weatherobsuk]

Cuxhaven & Bremerhaven are set to get the worse of this on the European side, with a population of 113,500 between the two cities. The combination of storm surge & exceptionally high winds is going to make that place 'interesting' in the coming 24hrs.

[Coast]

Any one have any idea how much precipitation we are looking at coming through on Thursday night behind the storm....

[Liam J]

It doesn't get much worse than this, 18z tomorrow, Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, SW Scotland and NW England. Mean speeds 55-70mph with gusts of 80-100mph, locally isolated gusts of 100-105mph not out of the question.

more than strong enough to blow over or break mature trees, damage to buildings - roofs off, chimneys toppled, weak structures may fail, driving will be near impossible and very dangerous. Most importantly this storm will pose a risk to life, from falling trees or debris off buildings flying through the air.

GFS Isotach 10m mean wind plot km/h

Edited December 7, 2011 by Liam J

[aggy]

It doesn't get much worse than this, 18z tomorrow, Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, SW Scotland and NW England. Mean speeds 55-70mph with gusts of 80-100mph.

GFS Isotach 10m mean wind plot km/h

sorry im still new to this does 18z mean 6pm?