29th November - 6th December 2011 Atlantic Storms

[Coast]

In my simpleton way, all I can see from the various places I look at for charts on the web, Thursday afternoon into Friday morning is going to be very windy in Scotland and Ireland to kick off, then right down the East Side on areas bordering the North Sea, with currently East Anglia taking a battering:

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast

[Jane Louise]

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #065

ISSUED: 1230UTC TUESDAY 6TH DECEMBER 2011 (GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

NORTHERN IRELAND

WESTERN SCOTLAND

SOUTHWESTERN SCOTLAND

NORTHERN ENGLAND

NORTH WALES

MIDLANDS

EAST ANGLIA

IN EFFECT FROM 1500UTC TUESDAY 6TH TO 1200UTC WEDNESDAY 7TH DECEMBER 2011

LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING UNDER A STRONG JET CROSSING SE'WD OVER NORTHERN SCOTLAND

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSNOW...HAIL...LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTS

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD SHORT-RANGE MODEL CONFIDENCE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DURING THE NEXT 24HRS. A DEVELOPING LOW SYSTEM NW OF SCOTLAND WILL DEEPEN AND ENHANCE WIND VEER AHEAD OF IT INTO WESTERN PARTS. UNDER A STRONG JET WITH TEMPS OF BELOW -30C AT 500MB ON IT'S NORTHERN SIDE, AN UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING WITHIN A STRONG OVERALL FLOW, DOWNWARD MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM BELOW THE JET MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTING AND STRONG GUSTS. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF HAIL MAY BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH NOT INDIVIDUALLY LARGE. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

[Liam J]

Just edited a chart with the possible wind speeds and gusts for the upcoming storm system for Thursday and Friday.

The strongest gusts indicated will obviously be over exposed coasts and headlands, I do expect gales to penetrate inland over the north with powerful gusts possible.

Edited December 6, 2011 by Liam J

[Coast]

Worth reading John Holmes .pdf download on Thursday / Friday available here:

[weatherobsuk]

I was out for a walk earlier and noticed already rivers are substantially rising as the warm front started to make its presence felt. lower lying levels should keep a watch at least on this as I would imagine most of the national coverage would be focusing on the winds than potential threat from flooding & rains.

[Coast]

Also interesting to note that as well as a possible storm surge scenario for Thursday into Friday, the high tides seem to be peaking at exactly the wrong times. Typically Immingham has 6.53M at 16:39 on Thursday and 6.72M at 17.15 on Friday.

http://www.pol.ac.uk...ides/?port=0026

You can pick the local high tide to you for the period here:

http://www.pol.ac.uk/ntslf/tidalp.html

More reading on North Sea storm surges here:

http://rsta.royalsoc.../1831/1263.full

http://www.pol.ac.uk/ntslf/model.html

http://en.wikipedia....iki/Storm_surge

[Coast]

I've Just had a thought, you don't think this is the Great North Sea Storm of 2011, just 10 months late?

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64822-better-than-the-models :ph34r:

[weatherobsuk]

Heights are looking interesting, as far out as the weekend with one LP after another moving through.

http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=1&res=500&type=swell&starttime=1323129600

[Beverley Lass]

The threat of such high water threatens these seal pups at

Donna Nook again then perhaps.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-16047191

BL.

[Liam J]

GFS 12z rolling out, storm further south damaging winds into N England.

Very severe gusts over Scotland, 95mph

Edited December 6, 2011 by Liam J

[sn0wman]

Wow! The latest run from GFS is astonishing and would result in extremely strong and damaging winds for Scotland and Northern England, with the focus on inland winds in the Central Belt of Scotland.

[Liam J]

The isobars are almost touching over Scotland and Northern England!

Edited December 6, 2011 by Liam J

[kold weather]

Yes the GFS really is extreme, blizzards for higher ground, winds probably widely gusting above 70-80mph and locally more if the 12z GFS came off...would be a notable event.

[geoffw]

this is dam right scary now but please tell me northern ireland is not in the firing line?

[Coast]

this is dam right scary now but please tell me northern ireland is not in the firing line?

I suspect you will be relatively sheltered on the Eastern side, but anyone could get high winds and until this time tomorrow, it may be difficult to pin down anything specific (and maybe not even then)

[Liam J]

Tonight is still looking very windy for the north and west, severe gales with gusts to 70mph predicted here by the Meto from around 3am onwards.

[geoffw]

could this storm bring winds similar to the boxing day 1998 storm?

[Liam J]

could this storm bring winds similar to the boxing day 1998 storm?

Judging by the 12z quite easily I would say, looking at the 12z suite we have good agreement on the track as currently shown.

GFS isotach chart for 48 hours time....

Edited December 6, 2011 by Liam J

[Coast]

Ouch!

[If Wishes made Weather]

Well, in at least 5 years of model watching, this is the first time that I have seen the GFS modelling 70 mph+ gusts through a signifcant urban part of the mainland at this close to the suspected event. Of course, over higher and not so populated areas, and on the coast this is modelled at times and also when its modelled in FI. But this, I fear, is something that needs taking seriously for the Forth Clyde valley, all of the Highlands, as well as Lothian, the Boarders, central and nothern upland England as well as the Tyne/Tees areas and the Lakes.

[glasgow-guy]

just a quick question does anyone on the forum think we could see blizzard like conditions say outside Glasgow central belt will the air be cold enough to allow such a set-up ?

sorry if off topic

[Coast]

But this, I fear, is something that needs taking seriously for the Forth Clyde valley, all of the Highlands, as well as Lothian, the Boarders, central and nothern upland England as well as the Tyne/Tees areas and the Lakes.

I'm tempted to think further south, maybe into the Humber or Norfolk (at the moment) too. Maybe the lowlands of Belgium and Holland later?

[johnholmes]

we should have a very good idea on the extent and area by this time tomorrow-plenty of time for the necessary action to be taken.

[If Wishes made Weather]

I suspect that you are right Coast. I'm not sure what the position is in the Netherlands, but presumably areas like the islands in the Scheldt estuary have evac procedures etc. Also wouldn't really like to be on the Hallig Islands or that string of islands off the Dutch and German coasts with a forecast like tonight's in published.

[Mark Neal.]

just a quick question does anyone on the forum think we could see blizzard like conditions say outside Glasgow central belt will the air be cold enough to allow such a set-up ?

sorry if off topic

Judging by what i have seen, i don't see why not, would be cold air still and very strong winds, would surely = Blizzards?!