29th November - 6th December 2011 Atlantic Storms

[Liam J]

Its in Km per hour not knots or mph!

so 100kmh= approx 60mph

I know it's in km/h, using the colour key to the right it shows 120km/h shading over NW England and Southern Scotland?

[Aaron]

Well that's disappointing.. lol

[Liam J]

Wind speed in knots.

Just look at those isobars!

[Nick F]

Wind gusts of 80-90mph for Western Isles, western mainland, central belt and later NE Scotland on Thursday evening:

Gusts of 100mph+ in exposure over headlands, hills and possible from funnelling through valleys. This is looking like a significant storm - even for Scotland, especially as the more populus central belt is under the cosh.

Low at 15z Thurs showing 955mb centre on the 18z GFS:

Possible back edge snow along cold front surging SE Thursday PM looking at 18z GFS precip/dew point charts, though too far off to realistically say this is likely south of northern England:

Then the snow showers pack in across western Scotland and NW England.

[mountain shadow]

There are two threads running at the moment on this. Can someone merge them?

[Nick F]

Closed t'other one

[Liam J]

Hi Nick, what sort of max gusts could I expect here? Located right on the Cumbrian coast in an elevated position with nothing between my house and the open sea

I've read the warning which says 60-70mph gusts perhaps 80mph in exposed locations for N England.

GFS 18z progging 50mph+ mean speeds right on the coast and 60mph mean speeds offshore.

Thanks.

[snowlover2009]

Looking at the storm and direction, I am wondering the BBC are showing high temperatures still around 9/10c.

It could be the biggest storm in a long while.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Really looking forward to this, severe gales then big drop in temp then SNOW!

[Nick F]

Hi Nick, what sort of max gusts could I expect here? Located right on the Cumbrian coast in an elevated position with nothing between my house and the open sea

I've read the warning which says 60-70mph gusts perhaps 80mph in exposed locations for N England.

GFS 18z progging 50mph+ mean speeds right on the coast.

Thanks.

If the track and intensity of the low is similar to this evening's progs, then yes - would think gusts of 60-70mph maybe more over exposed coastal headlands in the NW of England.

[lfcdude]

im a noob at this.. but looking at the charts.. is there the possibility of a storm surge down the east coast? Thames barrier? our would it need to be a few hundred miles south for that?

[kold weather]

The storm the models show would be one of the most dangerous storms in many a year...the chart at 48hrs-60hrs is down-right scary.

As I said probably widespread 80-90kts gusts and locally higher still. This will also drag some cold air down so severe blizzards possible.

IF I was in the Met office I'd be seriously considering a RED warning...

[snowlover2009]

How bad is the storm looking here?

[helen of the north]

nick, i am at the northeast caithness just south of wick. What do you think we're looking at windwise? Local weather enthusiast posted possibility of up to 100mph gusts in exposed places but, my netweather gusts have downgraded by 11mph this past update. Was saying 79mph but, now 68mph. What do you think? Could this go up significantly over the next day or does the forecast sound correct/stable? Cheers.

[Nick F]

nick, i am at the northeast caithness just south of wick. What do you think we're looking at windwise? Local weather enthusiast posted possibility of up to 100mph gusts in exposed places but, my netweather gusts have downgraded by 11mph this past update. Was saying 79mph but, now 68mph. What do you think? Could this go up significantly over the next day or does the forecast sound correct/stable? Cheers.

Yes could be potentially be some violent gusts across the far north of Scotland where you are later on Thursday as winds veer NW'erly as the low clears east, perhaps 90-100mph gusts based on current projections of this low. Be wise to stay indoors away from windows! I've been in a car (a large American tank) in 100mph+ winds and felt the whole thing lift off the ground!

[aggy]

anyone shed any light on potential wind speed for the ayrshire coast ?

[helen of the north]

thanks nick! Not looking forward to it must say!

[GreyCrag]

I noticed the wind vectors taking the worst of the gusts directly across the village here. normally from RACY events they come up from the SW/West but the direction of this one is slipping southeastwards meaning all the homes locally are more of less parallel with the winds.

Best get round to putting everything away (again) in the morning. I also got family in Southport and wondering with the wind directions more westerly there, what in the way of high tides, surge, and onshore winds they'll be facing. Infact all the NW coastline including the Isle Of Man which looks to take a battering from this.

[Chris D]

I noticed the wind vectors taking the worst of the gusts directly across the village here. normally from RACY events they come up from the SW/West but the direction of this one is slipping southeastwards meaning all the homes locally are more of less parallel with the winds.

Best get round to putting everything away (again) in the morning. I also got family in Southport and wondering with the wind directions more westerly there, what in the way of high tides, surge, and onshore winds they'll be facing. Infact all the NW coastline including the Isle Of Man which looks to take a battering from this.

Unless the GFS 18z comes off or the NAE makes it a little more intense (it wouldn't take a great deal), 75mph gusts wouldn't be out of the question for Southport. Bare in mind that the Jan 2007 storm saw a peak gust to 84mph at Crosby (and that was quite damaging), so it would take quite an upgrade for Southport (and the NW coastline) to be particularly badly affected. Saying that, we haven't seen a proper major storm since then.

Its further north I would be most concerned with, 100mph winds across western Scotland are very severe indeed, and so is 80mph well inland across the southern part - which I see as a high potential at this stage.

[GreyCrag]

Thanks for the info chris, been watching the models mainly for my end here in the Pennines and a few of the family members (also following the same model trend) were starting to get a bit anxious.

[ZONE 51]

Hi all, been reading, no internet on pc i do miss the big screen! hope to get bk on tomo. Incredible storm this, whens the last time Netw issued a storm surge warning for a storm this big? been able to zoom posted charts, those isobars are incredibly tight.

Take note that although Southeast England has not had warnings issued(yet)we are on the potent edge of the storm. expect a very rough day here.

[The PIT]

First brief mention today on the forecasts. This evenings forecast is going to be interesting.

[Liam J]

I've had about 4 hours sleep due to the wind, it's absolutely howling here!!

upgrade on the 00z in terms of wind speed from the storm which now shows mean wind speeds of 56mph on the coast for me! Even severe gale mean speeds of 47mph over 20 miles inland at Keswick! Oh dear....

This is serious folks and deffo warrants a red warning for Northern Britain. I can't remember ever seeing isobars like that for a very very long time, Storm force winds over land, gusts of 90mph-100mph anywhere from N England northwards, major damage.

Meto have me down for gusts 80-85mph Thursday afternoon and evening. and mean speeds in excess of 50mph, and they are normally conservative with estimates. Meto also predicting gusts of 70-80mph inland @ Keswick which is over 20 miles away from the coast.

[Evening thunder]

Wow, this is certainly looking quite a major event. I can't remember such strong wind speeds forecast to hit a significant area of the country at a close range like this before.

I will be very surprised and eat my hat if the MetO don't upgrade their warning today.

Met Office national forecast says "Extremely windy in Scotland with damaging storm force winds likely."

Models show potential for more stormy weather next week too.

[Isolated Frost]

Thursday potentially 11-12-13c in some parts of England and Wales at 12-2pm, that cold front should drop temps a good 4-6c for most in the space of an hour... before further falls.

10am-2pm most severe gusts for NI, Wales, Western England and Western Scotland... 2pm-7pm most severe for most eastern and southern parts, north sea storm surges a possible problem along the east yorkshire coast, east anglia, the frisian islands, nw germany and the netherlands.

The nmm only goes +36 of course so here is the chart for the latest possible timeframe, 12pm Thursday... please note that for most areas (especially east and south) the storm peaks a few hours later... so these speeds could be 10-20mph lower than their peaks.

80-90mph+ in the western isles, maybe even 100mph gusts at times.

75-85mph in northern ireland, potentially past 100mph at times.

60-75mph for much of scotland, over 90mph on some western coasts... potential to get past 175mph gusts on mountains.

40-60mph gusts for northern england, upto 75mph possible in lake district/west cumbrian coast.

50-60mph gusts for north wales and the midlands, potentially 75mph plus in west wales.

30-50mph for southern england and south wales.

I'd expect to up that gust speed by at least 10mph for southern england, south wales, eastern england, and perhaps 20mph for northern scotland and eastern scotland... take care folks.