29th November - 6th December 2011 Atlantic Storms

[Liam J]

The winds are strengthening here now, expecting gusts of 60-70mph come Wednesday morning which could cause some problems.

[wimblettben]

Well this thread has certainly come more alive from last time I saw it!

It does look quite potent for Scotland and Northern areas on Thursday, on one wind map I looked at I saw mean wind speeds forecast as high as 78mph at one point out at sea.

If the models continue to show this then I would have thought that even an Alert may have to be issued. Inland winds of as high as 70-80mph is not something to laugh about!

[The PIT]

No mention of it on the forecasts this evening with the forecasters concentrating more on the possibility of snow. I guess they're waiting for the details to firm up.

[Liam J]

I'd like to be a fly on the wall at the Meto HQ at the moment!

[Aaron]

The Met are always veeery conservative with their forecasts. For example, snow was only suppose to fall over the tops but fell in Leeds city centre at 40 m asl.

[weatherobsuk]

Well, in at least 5 years of model watching, this is the first time that I have seen the GFS modelling 70 mph+ gusts through a signifcant urban part of the mainland at this close to the suspected event. Of course, over higher and not so populated areas, and on the coast this is modelled at times and also when its modelled in FI. But this, I fear, is something that needs taking seriously for the Forth Clyde valley, all of the Highlands, as well as Lothian, the Boarders, central and nothern upland England as well as the Tyne/Tees areas and the Lakes.

I remember it happening before, but not quite on such a widespread scale as this. The 'hairdrying effect' of winds in a airmass of 10-12'c temps is also going to exacerbate things with possible lee-waves across the Pennines.

[Brassmonkeylily]

Yep ... the BBC forecast this evening from Darren Bent certainly did not mention severe weather warnings for the Low ....just high winds ...

[Cloud 10]

The NAE 12z has pressure down to 958mb by 12 noon thursday.

Only goes out to +48 hrs so further deepening likely.

I suppose with the weather setup we are having at the moment it was only a matter of time

before a really nasty storm showed up.

[NickyB]

Where's Mr Fish when we need him? ;-)

[Liam J]

The ITV national weather was the only forecast I've seen that actually mentions the severe gales later tonight and tomorrow, she bigged it up. No mention of Thursday either.

[Zenarcher]

Scottish BBC weather mentioned and showed Thursday quickly near the end they placed the strongest winds across Northern Ireland, South Scotland and Northern England.

Edited December 6, 2011 by weathermaster

[Matty M]

Scottish BBC weather mentioned and showed Thursday quickly near the end they placed the strongest winds across Northern Ireland, South Scotland and Northern England.

look at this cookie!

someone gonna get hit hard

[weatherobsuk]

If the GFS is anything to go by, Cuxhaven (pop 50,000) and Bremerhaven (pop 113,500) will bear the brunt of all the Low has to offer, with both the winds and surge ontop of that being funnelled into these 2 population centers alongside the North Sea.

[helen of the north]

lol liam, coulda sworn we had a shetlander on this thread and thought you may be them. Lol looks like a fairly gnarly onion rolling in thursday night. Hoping we ain't seeing much above 80mph. Anything above that and i'll need to start tying things down "properly". Our neighbour down the road still hasna fetched his 30 ft trampoline out of his tree yet from last weeks rammy. Wouldna care to guess where it'll end up or what it might damage if it still there thursday. The only thing i know by looking at these latest charts is that it certainly won't be there friday if he leave it there.

[Nick F]

Netweather have a weather watch out for Thursday's potentially significant storm:

http://www.netweathe...;type=alerthome

[Harps]

More intense again on the 18Z, 955mb central pressure

Certainly going to be an interesting day here on the north coast of Ireland!

[Liam J]

Start making preparations for a very severe wind event during Thursday if you live in Northern Britain - Northern Ireland, Scotland and Northern England - expect violent gales being widespread with perhaps hurricane force winds over exposed Western Scotland and Isles.

[johnholmes]

see my post on the other thread about possible problems along the Forth-Clyde valley

[Liam J]

The wind is increasing quite noticeably here, very windy later tonight with gusts still progged around 70-75mph for a time on the Meto site.

[aggy]

i live in ayrshire and i think we may be in for it x

[mountain shadow]

see my post on the other thread about possible problems along the Forth-Clyde valley

Don't forget the Tay valley as well. In my experience the Tay valley experiences worse gusts as it has higher hills on either side and is narrower.

[sn0wman]

Don't forget the Tay valley as well. In my experience the Tay valley experiences worse gusts as it has higher hills on either side and is

narrower.

Sorry for my ignorance lol, but my dad and I are debating whether the Stirling area is counted as being in the Forth-Clyde Valley? I know it's in the Forth Valley but just not sure about Forth-Clyde.

[mountain shadow]

The Forth and Clyde valleys are different valleys, its just that the Clyde flows generally east to west and the Forth west to east and they are in line with one another.

[Liam J]

Spitzenwind chart (maximum wind speed in km/h) from Wetterzentrale... I can't even read the values over NW England or Southern Scotland?!

Edited December 6, 2011 by Liam J

[johnholmes]

Spitzenwind chart (maximum wind speed in km/h) from Wetterzentrale... I can't even read the values over NW England?!

Its in Km per hour not knots or mph!

so 100kmh= approx 60mph