Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thanks nick, this could be the most important 18z of the winter so far.

Lol, considering its the first 18z of the winter? ? Maybe it is :w00t:

Bugger...AWD got there 1st!

T168....oh wow...T174 wow wow.

BFTP

Edited December 1, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Frosty.]

Lol, considering its the first 18z of the winter? ? Maybe it is :w00t: Bugger...AWD got there 1st! T168....oh wow BFTP

yes it's looking peachy for cold fans tonight..for a change! a nice way to end the day..I mean night.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Its too good. T180 is northerly gales and blizzards for some. Another OTT set up by GFS?

BFTP

[Geordiesnow]

yes it's looking peachy for cold fans tonight..for a change! a nice way to end the day..I mean night.

Its good for seasonal weather fans I feel, I mean the cold charts are fairly good considering all the background signals but we got all weather types coming up it would appear, I mean if you can't have an easterly then let it be cool/cold weather with convective weather for the lucky ones.

[Snowstorm1]

yes it's looking peachy for cold fans tonight..for a change! a nice way to end the day..I mean night.

Yep good run but 200miles further south and it would have been oh so much better...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Its good for seasonal weather fans I feel, I mean the cold charts are fairly good considering all the background signals but we got all weather types coming up it would appear, I mean if you can't have an easterly then let it be cool/cold weather with convective weather for the lucky ones.

Agreed, I think that this month will have something for everyone.

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Its too good. T180 is northerly gales and blizzards for some. Another OTT set up by GFS? BFTP

yes fred but with a few small adjustments here and there, the 18z is possible, this is the icing on the cake for the first day of winter.

[nick sussex]

For newbies if you're following this from the NH you can see how crucial it is that you get the Canadian trough phasing with that low,without that phasing the low will continue eastwards cutting off any WAA into Greenland.

The GFS 18hrs run in the higher resolution is better than the 12hrs run in terms of upstream pattern but it's on a knife edge given that we saw that small shortwave ejected into the Atlantic earlier.

It's a hard one to call, this is going to take a while to sort out given the complications upstream.

Edited December 1, 2011 by nick sussex

[Dean E]

Just use Iceland as an example, once it gets it -15c uppers (around +51hrs) they stick there throughout the run...

To me it all seems to be slowly moving south, different from last years sudden shunt of cold air! I can clearly remember some members saying the transition to colder weather will be slow!

My hat is off to them!

Edited December 1, 2011 by SnowMania

[Gavin Hannah]

That shortwave!!! Is it getting phased????

[Wales123098]

Jesus huge cold blast for NE USA at 216 hrs. Can we have some of that please?

[AWD]

Would the charts for the 9th deliver snow countrywide, thus including southern England?

I only ask as the -5c uppers are comfotably in the channel?

Obviously being a week away I don't expect this to verify anyway, and a more watered down version would probably materilise! Nevertheless, with all other signals against cold weather, the runs from the models tonight have been pretty much the best we can have!

[feb1991blizzard]

I have to say i thought that developing low in the Atlantic was going to track further North than on the 12 for a time but i was wrong. I cant post big blown up charts anymore but im still going to say it for the first time this winter.

GFS 18z is a stonker!

[Frosty.]

For newbies if you're following this from the NH you can see how crucial it is that you get the Canadian trough phasing with that low,without that phasing the low will continue eastwards cutting off any WAA into Greenland. The GFS 18hrs run in the higher resolution is better than the 12hrs run in terms of upstream pattern but it's on a knife edge given that we saw that small shortwave ejected into the Atlantic earlier. It's a hard one to call, this is going to take a while to sort out given the complications upstream.

This run is much better for coldies but the 12z runs were pretty good considering how relatively poor the 6z was, so hopefully the 00z will carry on the feel good factor for long suffering cold starved members of net weather.

But let the south have some heavy rain first please, the drought is very worrying

Edited December 1, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[Strider]

Its too good. T180 is northerly gales and blizzards for some. Another OTT set up by GFS?

BFTP

Have you checked the uppers on that one?

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

I dont understand what is happening. It is heaving on here. What have i missed? From what i can see the cold spell over the weekend is still on with another possible One at about t180. Or is this all about the americans getting the possible arctic shift.

[AWD]

337 Users Reading ; Ladies and Gentlemen The Winter Season In The Model Thread On Netweather Has Begun!

Think it's time to open up the regionals now!

GFS 18z has the -5c uppers regularly on the south coast/in the channel next week producing a potent cold snap at both the beginning and end of the week nationwide!

However, I think taking other factors into account such as high SST's around the UK and the tendacy for the GFS to overdo polar shots, I still would be very wary of any snow falling south of the Midlands for the time being!

[stewfox]

    Would the charts for the 9th deliver snow countrywide, thus including southern England?

    

    I only ask as the -5c uppers are comfotably in the channel?

    

    Obviously being a week away I don't expect this to verify anyway, and a more watered down version would probably materilise!  Nevertheless, with all other signals against cold weather, the runs from the models tonight have been pretty much the best we can have!

    

    

    Isn't it funny just a week ago people  were saying there was a close to 0% chance of any snow in south by Mid December

    

    Thankfully model solutions post T168 is FI regardless of background stuff

Edited December 1, 2011 by stewfox

[Gavin Hannah]

Im just glad the GFS's idea of bringing a return of SWesterlys is in FI. Plenty of time for the Shortwave to get phased into the canadaian low and heights to build into greenland.

[chionomaniac]

I have to say i thought that developing low in the Atlantic was going to track further North than on the 12 for a time but i was wrong. I cant post big blown up charts anymore but im still going to say it for the first time this winter.

GFS 18z is a stonker!

Yes it is wonderful how it leads to such a great Greenland high.

Oh er - except that it doesn't and I still believe that it won't.

The background signals are still too strong to lead to northern blocking, especially to the northwest.

Is it not obvious to anyone that this is a transitory ridge leading to a short lived northerly that will most likely be watered down by the time we get to T+72.

Don't get too excited.

[nick sussex]

This run is much better for coldies but the 12z runs were pretty good considering how relatively poor the 6z was, so hopefully the 00z will carry on the feel good factor for long suffering cold starved member of net weather.

When I saw that shortwave being ejected earlier I was worried but thankfully it got absorbed by the troughing in Greenland, it's difficult enough to get the right phasing without more complications.

Because of these possible shortwaves and uncertainties regarding the detail in the eastern USA I'd be very wary of any northerly till within 96hrs.

[sundog]

Yes it is wonderful how it leads to such a great Greenland high.

Oh er - except that it doesn't and I still believe that it won't.

The background signals are still too strong to lead to northern blocking, especially to the northwest.

Is it not obvious to anyone that this is a transitory ridge leading to a short lived northerly that will most likely be watered down by the time we get to T+72.

Don't get too excited.

I dont understand all the excitement myself,i thought maybe that was just me.

[mountain shadow]

Obvious or not Chino its on the model output and open for discussion. Yes the upper level stratosphere does not support any proper height rises over Greenland, however 2/3 day topplers are not bad given the cold stratosphere.

[Daniel Miller]

Why the excitement of 168 - 180? Deep lows but the uppers are not cold enough? (Noob here ahah)

[kold weather]

The background signals are still too strong to lead to northern blocking, especially to the northwest.

Is it not obvious to anyone that this is a transitory ridge leading to a short lived northerly that will most likely be watered down by the time we get to T+72.

Thats certainly been the case recently, the models have constantly over-done any -ve signal. Still considering everything I think the first 10 days of December look decent consdering the state of everything. I think its only a matter of time before we shift the PV and eventually see heights building back in from the sub-tropical belt, as we both said on the Strat thread. The only hope is we can get it far enough north so that we can get some inversion cold.

Its a needed step if we are eventually to shift into a REAL cold pattern IMO, but such a sustained cold pattern is still a very long way off...still this current set-up is an ok second best.

As for 168-180...thats rain for nearly everyone at low level bar maybe the FAR north-east of Scotland and higher ground in Scotland, especially on the back-edge.