Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[A.J]

I see Mark (echobase) is lurking away at the bottom of the page...Nice to see you back mate, plenty of late night drunken banter in the months to come!... :w00t:

[kmanmx]

I am holding on to any chance of snow. The deepest covering of snow i've seen here in atleast the past 2 or 3 years has been 2, perhaps 3inches.

Leicester does not do well wherever the snow comes from. So whenever there is a chance of snow coming our way, it gets pretty exciting Though I don't expect anything significant to come of this, at least a few mm dusting would look pretty.

Regardless of wheather we get snow or not, I remember being here last winter and maybe even the one before and it's generally an excellent atmosphere and great fun chatting in the regional section when there is the potential for a dump of snow, can't wait for winter to really kick in!

Edited December 7, 2011 by kmanmx

[marksp]

Had some beefy Hail Showers here in Dronfield North East Derbyshire today with sleet/snow thrown in for good measure aswell 4 days now with at least wintry precipitation! which is good considering it wasn't long back people were writing this winter off already.

i will second that, stll got snow cover on the hills, and have been out from 1030am until 1.30pm and have been driving through huge rain, hail and snowstorms, giving a temporary covering.

[fizz511]

I see the MetO has pulled back where it thinks the snow will reach down to on Thurs/Fri.

Just hoping they're as unreliable as ever......

[Cheshire Freeze]

On latest model guidance, the window for snow potential has narrowed somewhat. The coldest uppers are now associated with a slacker NW'ly flow so I'm doubtful of how far any showers can penetrate into the Midlands region given the short window of opportunity coupled with slacker winds and a rapid cut off of the flow past Friday afternoon.

[Serendipity]

Totally agree, this often happens though as you move into the reliable timeframe and the small details are ironed out - I think the North Midlands will be the place to be, can't see anything of interest really for most areas of the Midlands. But it could change yet again I suppose...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Totally agree, this often happens though as you move into the reliable timeframe and the small details are ironed out - I think the North Midlands will be the place to be, can't see anything of interest really for most areas of the Midlands. But it could change yet again I suppose...

If we had been able to gather some kind of more pronounced ridge after the low for tomorrow then the NW'ly flow could have been maintained for longer- this very situation was showing until yesterday. I don't think there is any way back now, though there is the potential for a flurry anywhere in the Midlands.

[A.J]

A question of waiting & seeing I guess, with a good dose of radar watching for good measure come friday....I guess the further to the NW of the region you are the better..CC would be in a good position IMO, for me it's touch & go....Another area of interest is on Sunday night, the 06z GFS run develops what looks to be a trough (denoted by the kinks in the isobars) passing through our region sunday evening....It looks a bit marginal to me TBH but worth keeping an eye on subsequent model runs

[Essan]

Snow? Not even had a frost in Evesham yet!

[Cheshire Freeze]

A question of waiting & seeing I guess, with a good dose of radar watching for good measure come friday....I guess the further to the NW of the region you are the better..CC would be in a good position IMO, for me it's touch & go....Another area of interest is on Sunday night, the 06z GFS run develops what looks to be a trough (denoted by the kinks in the isobars) passing through our region sunday evening....It looks a bit marginal to me TBH but worth keeping an eye on subsequent model runs

Hi AJ

Think you are definately in with a chance, though depends how quickly the showers can generate on Friday morning and how far they can penetrate and sustain. Best case scenario would be a typical Irish Sea streamer which, even given slack winds, can sustain itself for a relatively long period. Wind direction looks good but uppers are becoming increasingly marginal on each run and the duration of the cold uppers seems to narrow. Although theoretically in a good position here, if uppers rise much more then being at only 55m above sea level I will just see sleet and hail.

What is strange is that thickness values seem to have improved somewhat as the uppers have relented. Yesterday the GFS was showing -8 uppers but with nigh on 528 dam values. Today uppers touch -6 but dam is pushing towards 522.

P.S sorry for straddling 2 threads AJ, sometimes the Midlands weather is more akin to my location rather than the Northern thread.

Edited December 7, 2011 by CreweCold

[Serendipity]

Snow? Not even had a frost in Evesham yet!

Are you serious? We've had a fair few frosts here just a few miles away! Some mornings have been very white...

[Essan]

Are you serious? We've had a fair few frosts here just a few miles away! Some mornings have been very white...

We've had ground frosts, but not an air frost. The previous latest date was 1st Dec 2009. This year also produced the latest date for a sub 10c max (2nd Dec).

Looks like we should finally drop below freezing here in Fri night - be interesting though to see if we get snow first!

[A.J]

Hi AJ

Think you are definately in with a chance, though depends how quickly the showers can generate on Friday morning and how far they can penetrate and sustain. Best case scenario would be a typical Irish Sea streamer which, even given slack winds, can sustain itself for a relatively long period. Wind direction looks good but uppers are becoming increasingly marginal on each run and the duration of the cold uppers seems to narrow. Although theoretically in a good position here, if uppers rise much more then being at only 55m above sea level I will just see sleet and hail.

What is strange is that thickness values seem to have improved somewhat as the uppers have relented. Yesterday the GFS was showing -8 uppers but with nigh on 528 dam values. Today uppers touch -6 but dam is pushing towards 522.

P.S sorry for straddling 2 threads AJ, sometimes the Midlands weather is more akin to my location rather than the Northern thread.

Nice to see you in the thread mate..Us midlanders appreciate your input & knowledge far more than those 'up-north nancies'.... :w00t:

[Cheshire Freeze]

Nice to see you in the thread mate..Us midlanders appreciate your input & knowledge far more than those 'up-north nancies'.... :w00t:

nice to feel welcomed.

Latest METO update confirms my fears, though usually their choice of words are used to illustrated subtle nuances within the forecast. The mention of snow is gone and has been replaced by:

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Cold with bright spells and wintry showers on Friday. Winds easing, wintry showers gradually dying out on Saturday but remaining cold with frost overnight. Windy with rain again on Sunday.

Updated: 1508 on Wed 7 Dec 2011

[PolarWarsaw]

No surprise to see things downgrade in snow terms as we get closer to the event. I'll be surprised if we see falling flakes from the sky. I suppose night time would be the best time for snow.

[Gary-North Stoke]

Wish it would make its mind up,I'm trying to plan as to whether to commence gritting in the Stoke area or not on Thurs/Fri...

[Costa Del Fal]

Admittedly, quite a downgrade re: Cheshire Gap potential. It looked good up till this morning. However there is still a window of opportunity and the Fax charts bring down a trough anyway which may bring some organised/heavy showers for a time. 12z Gets rid of Sundays potential but that was to be expected.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Admittedly, quite a downgrade re: Cheshire Gap potential. It looked good up till this morning. However there is still a window of opportunity and the Fax charts bring down a trough anyway which may bring some organised/heavy showers for a time. 12z Gets rid of Sundays potential but that was to be expected.

Yes, thoroughly disappointing; I first noticed it on the 18z last night and it has just kept on deteriorating ever since. With 30 hours until the colder uppers hit, I can only envisage downgrades rather than upgrades to the cold as it seems like a trend across all of the models.

[A.J]

Admittedly, quite a downgrade re: Cheshire Gap potential. It looked good up till this morning. However there is still a window of opportunity and the Fax charts bring down a trough anyway which may bring some organised/heavy showers for a time. 12z Gets rid of Sundays potential but that was to be expected.

re.sunday, I wouldn't be too bothered about the 12z apart from making a mental note of the differences between it and the 06z run..It's just one run after all..The trough is still at the same time frame, but uppers are very marginal at best.....Comparing the 12z tomorrow to today's 12z will give you a better picture IMO

Yes, thoroughly disappointing; I first noticed it on the 18z last night and it has just kept on deteriorating ever since. With 30 hours until the colder uppers hit, I can only envisage downgrades rather than upgrades to the cold as it seems like a trend across all of the models.

I'm reserving judgment until tomorrow night TBH, as we all know, snowfall is a nightmare to forecast, especially in a showery setup..In saying that, I will be keeping an eye out for tonights FAX charts, if troughs are shown, we're in business, if not, then prospects don't look so good

[laheymichele]

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness in one or more regions of England

Issued at: Wednesday 7 December 2011 at 09:57

There is a 60% probability of severe cold weather and icy conditions between 1800 on Thursday and 0000 on Saturday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

An unsettled regime will affect mainly western parts of England during Thursday evening and throughout Friday with snow showers potentially bringing significant accumulations to Northwest England and northern parts of West Midlands. Drifting snow is likely in these parts on higher ground. Please see the Met Office severe weather warning for more detailed information of areas affected (link below). http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html Further snow fall is possible on Saturday but is currently thought to be less than 60% risk. Further details will be issued on Thursday 8th Dec 2011.

Regional breakdown

Region Risk Comments

North East England 30% -

North West England 60% High risk of snow showers late Thursday and throughout Friday. These showers will be heavy at times bringing the risk of significant accumulations. This will be accompanied by strong winds bringing some drifting over higher ground. Icy conditions are expected in association with snowfall.

Yorkshire & the Humber 40% Low risk of snow showers affecting mainly western parts of the region during late Thursday and throughout Friday. Currently significant accumulations are not expected.

East Midlands 30% Low risk of snow showers affecting mainly western parts of the region during late Thursday and throughout Friday. Currently significant accumulations are not expected.

West Midlands 60% Snow showers affecting mainly northern parts of the region during late Thursday and throughout Friday. These showers are likely to be heavy at times in northern parts with this area most at risk of significant accumulations and icy conditions.

East of England 0% -

South East England 0% -

London 0% -

South West England 0% -

An update will be issued by 1000 on Thursday 08 December 2011.

Met office does state this

Edited December 7, 2011 by laheymichele

[syed2878]

Met office weather warnings for snow has gon for the west midlands

[laheymichele]

the main warning that was on yesterday as but if you go onto the west midlands forecast then click onto alert level 2 in yellow on the right that was updated at 9:57 this morning and says 60% chance for the north of the region.

[PolarWarsaw]

Like i said yesterday, still very skeptical about actually getting any snowfall. I can see precisely whats happened this week re-occuring. Showers with a bit of a westerly element instead of the NW we need for the cheshire gap to truly fire up, thus pushing showers over the north moorlands peaks and north Derbyshire etc. Hope im wrong though.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Like i said yesterday, still very skeptical about actually getting any snowfall. I can see precisely whats happened this week re-occuring. Showers with a bit of a westerly element instead of the NW we need for the cheshire gap to truly fire up, thus pushing showers over the north moorlands peaks and north Derbyshire etc. Hope im wrong though.

We had a couple of showers here, was disappointed that we were missing most of them with the wind direction- then I realised what did fall here was falling as rain/sleet/hail and I quickly no longer felt as bad. Getting the precipitation is one thing, getting it to fall as snow is another.

[Eugene]

There is a 60% probability of severe cold weather and icy conditions between 1800 on Thursday and 0000 on Saturday in parts of England

GFS 12Z has temps around 5C on friday in most of england, air frost friday night but not severe, not sure sure where this severe cold is coming from for england, i guess high up in the lake district but hardly anybody lives there.