Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[PolarWarsaw]

Exactly Eugene. I do think some are setting themselves up for a bit of a fall here. There's not a great deal of signs promoting proper snow here. Im personally at quite a low height also, so anything that falls here wil most likely be sleet at best - im expecting rain though to be honest.

[cyclonic happiness]

Had a snow shower here earlier, very wet mind and the uppers were supposed to be unfavourable at 1pm today, so you never know.

Also, we all know what the metoffice is like with it's warning!

They fail badly the midlands quite often, remember the year before last where we had snow falling heavily for a couple hours before the met office even put a warning out?

To me the uppers are still fine and the orientations is fine, the metoffice's own model is very good for our chances.

Don't get downhearted, it's a 'nowcast' situation with these sorts of setups, there will be surprises and probably a few dissapointments and if you'd been in the Midlands 'dead zone' last winter you'd know the true meaning of dissapointment.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Eugene, I actually agree, for once. The uppers ar being moderated each run in a way that they now look similar to the 'spell' earlier in the week. That brought rain and sleet here so I agree with Radders that it's looking decidedly dodgy for meaningful wintry precipitation now. Though apparently someone in the northern thread on lower ground than me and closer to the coast reported falling snow so who knows.

[Staffordshire]

I'm not going to get my hopes, then I can't be disapointed. If we get the PPN then who knows?

Anyway battern down the hatches in Scotland!

[cyclonic happiness]

Eugene, I actually agree, for once. The uppers ar being moderated each run in a way that they now look similar to the 'spell' earlier in the week. That brought rain and sleet here so I agree with Radders that it's looking decidedly dodgy for meaningful wintry precipitation now. Though apparently someone in the northern thread on lower ground than me and closer to the coast reported falling snow so who knows.

The uppers are absolutely fine for snow? as I said earlier, we had SNOW here today with uppers of around -3!

Here's a forecast too backing it up somewhat.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16068618

And the storm is bound to change track a bit, usually they go slightly further south than forecast.

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS 12Z has temps around 5C on friday in most of england, air frost friday night but not severe, not sure sure where this severe cold is coming from for england, i guess high up in the lake district but hardly anybody lives there.

No one has said we are getting Severe cold???

[cyclonic happiness]

Apart from the potential snow , there's going to be plenty of action from the wind, which shall be blowing at galeforce across the region!

Amazing looking windmap!!

[A.J]

I think it's a case of nowcasting to be fair....The weather is about to become very volatile and quite literally anything can happen....I can understand both optimism as well as pessimism from posters..Me? I'm cautiously optimistic of seeing some flakes of snow thursday night into friday, the NW extra snow risk (using GFS12z data) shows uppers for me at -6C, lower atmosphere thickness of sub 528DAM, and sub zero dewpoint temps and WB temps for a 24 hour period...So, from an IMBY perspective all of the parameters are there, all I need now is some precipitation during that given period!

[Costa Del Fal]

I agree aj, Lots going on and I think there will be surprises as well as disappointment. Gusts could quite easily reach 50-60mph here tomorrow afternoon, maybe a little high in very exposed spots.

Im not sure how recently updated the Fax charts are but Friday afternoon now looks like an Occlusion may pass down.

[A.J]

I agree aj, Lots going on and I think there will be surprises as well as disappointment. Gusts could quite easily reach 50-60mph here tomorrow afternoon, maybe a little high in very exposed spots.

Im not sure how recently updated the Fax charts are but Friday afternoon now looks like an Occlusion may pass down.

Hi Luke, those are the latest FAX charts (hot off the press about an hour ago)...Here's the link for the FAX charts at Meteociel (the page also shows you exactly what times the charts were updated to give you an idea on latest synoptics) http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=0&carte=2000

[Costa Del Fal]

Hi Luke, those are the latest FAX charts (hot off the press about an hour ago)...Here's the link for the FAX charts at Meteociel (the page also shows you exactly what times the charts were updated to give you an idea on latest synoptics) http://www.meteociel...ch=0&carte=2000

Great, if that comes off then that could enhance snow chances though I notice the 528 Dam line is close..

Edited December 7, 2011 by Blizzards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hi Luke, those are the latest FAX charts (hot off the press about an hour ago)...Here's the link for the FAX charts at Meteociel (the page also shows you exactly what times the charts were updated to give you an idea on latest synoptics) http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=0&carte=2000

good trough AJ, but looks like precip arriving around 2pm, wouldnt it be better arriving say 2 hours later? would be colder then,

[A.J]

good trough AJ, but looks like precip arriving around 2pm, wouldnt it be better arriving say 2 hours later? would be colder then,

Your right Mark, timing could be an issue.....simply a case of waiting and seeing, as well as crossing fingers & toes etc etc :smiliz19:

[BlueHedgehog074]

Things are certainly looking bit more encouraging again!

[A.J]

Quite a few peeps lurking at the bottom of the page, don't be shy folks! .....have your say & post away! (I'm a poet and I don't even know it.... )

[TonyH]

The uppers are absolutely fine for snow? as I said earlier, we had SNOW here today with uppers of -3

And temperatures around 7c . Are you sure it was snow, it was more likely hail?

Edited December 7, 2011 by TonyH

[echobase]

I see Mark (echobase) is lurking away at the bottom of the page...Nice to see you back mate, plenty of late night drunken banter in the months to come!... :w00t:

Lol, tis good to be back! How`s you? :smilz38: Unfortunately, unless it`s a night off, drunken banter will be kept to a minimum due to my shift patterns. Gone back to baking, so I start at 3am I see Andy`s back already plus countless others!! So what`s the AJ lowndown on the upcoming start to the season?

[cyclonic happiness]

And temperatures around 7c . Are you sure it was snow, it was more likely hail?

I'm not thinking about tomorrow afternoon, tomorrow evening and overnight into friday.

It may say 5-8'c during the day and 2-3'c evening, but we've seen many times the GFS over doing the maxes.

Last winter there were days where the metoffice and the GFS were stating temperatures of 3-4'c and they were sub zero in reality, we all know they have to keep up their warm bias.

Dew points look fine for most of the region as so the uppers, so all we need is the precipitation.

[A.J]

Lol, tis good to be back! How`s you? :smilz38: Unfortunately, unless it`s a night off, drunken banter will be kept to a minimum due to my shift patterns. Gone back to baking, so I start at 3am I see Andy`s back already plus countless others!! So what`s the AJ lowndown on the upcoming start to the season?

To sum up in a few words......"Cool, Wind, Rain, Snow, Xmas, Drunk.... " ..... :smilz38: :w00t:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

weatheronline for friday looks good, snow perhaps turning more persistent in North Wales and NW midlands, assume due to trough

[cyclonic happiness]

[echobase]

To sum up in a few words......"Cool, Wind, Rain, Snow, Xmas, Drunk.... " ..... :smilz38: :w00t:

Take the rain out and it sounds perfect! On the plus side I should see more ppn whilst sober at that time of night!

[PolarWarsaw]

Do we think showers could slowly start flirting with us as early as this time tommorow? Whether that be over manchester, north Derbyshire etc or wherever.

[cold stoke]

it looks like stoke-on-trent is in for some snow then

[marksp]

well I'm definately optimistic about snow chances, seen snow again today here, its still lying on the fields, grass verge and even on some B roads even at 1.30pm,

even if the snow isn,t up to much some of the hail storms here today were great, thats with todays winds, just imagine tommorrow when it gets going.

could sending out some