Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

[Snowy Easterly]

Very much agree Nick, a huge leap of faith is required to see any sort of way out of the forthcoming zonality. Some intensely low heights to the North are the ongoing story.

Yes it looks like it will become mild next week according to the models, but this december has not been as mild as you thought has it.

Yes it looks like it will become mild next week according to the models, but this december has not been as mild as you thought has it.

GFS temps were right for my area today only 3c. not exceptional of course but jolly chilly

[Great Plum]

Run up to christmas

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1501.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1741.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1921.png

Some very high pressure developing in FI 1050mb

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2881.png

End of FI as you were high pressure firmly in charge

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

Look at the temps under that high pressure... Certainly suppressed:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn28817.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn38417.png

[Osbourne One-Nil]

UKMO may be on to something tonight

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

And an Hemispheric view

http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021

Gavin, of course the Met Office might be on to something...they have a reputation for it. I can't deny you're good at posting links, but could you say what you think they might be on to and why?

[Upgrade]

Look at the temps under that high pressure... Certainly suppressed:

it's faux cold though......

[Liam J]

UKMO may be on to something tonight

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

And an Hemispheric view

http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021

On to what exactly Gavin, care to elaborate for the benefit of other members?

Thank you

Edited December 17, 2011 by Liam J

[Great Plum]

Why does it matter if is 'faux cold?' it's still cold...

At 288 hours under that high pressure, half the country is under -5 uppers...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2882.png

[snowflakey]

Although there is a certain amount of scatter from the 12z gfs ens, it is quite interesting to note that most of the members agree on a cool then warm 850 temp, giving the ens graph a switchback look to them, indicating zonal conditions for the foreseeable.

[Summer Sun]

On to what exactly Gavin, care to elaborate for the benefit of other members?

Thank you

Hopefully if it continues as it is it will eventully allow a Northern Blocking to set up which in turn would give us a better chance of seeing something wintery.

[Timmytour]

This is what GFS was telling us midnight tonight would like back in the days when it was deep FI..

Isn't that quite similar to what it's now telling us deep FI looks like now?

Makes you realise just how very different things can be from FI to "nailed on"......but is it also telling us that the dominance of the high pressure to the south of us is what GFS keeps wanting to bring in but for some reason it's having to keep revising?

I don't think this winters going to be one of the coldest on record or anything like this, but i can't see it being as mild as some winters we've had in the last decade. And if it isn't so cold, then I'm thinking it's going to be the same in reverse as one of those cold winters we enjoyed in a long run of mild ones! Ok....maybe there's a fine line between thinking and hoping there :-)

EDIT...Sorry....pig's ear of that! This is midnight tonight as it was modelled when FI...

.

Edited December 17, 2011 by Timmytour

[Liam J]

Just having a look over some of the GEFS runs with the control taking us down a very unsettled path after the end of next week, from the 23rd.

I'm not buying this high pressure becoming the dominating feature, the models were progging similar in FI a few weeks back and the height rises didn't materialise and we ended up in a very unsettled period with significant storms brewing up.

Just a hunch

Edited December 17, 2011 by Liam J

[phil nw.]

The tendency towards a flat zonal pattern next week is shown by all the models on the 12z run.

The winds swing back towards west or south west after the weekend as the Azores builds closer to the South of the uk by midweek bringing temps well above average for much of the country.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

There are likely to be brief incursions of colder air in the North towards next weekend as the PJF wavers north and south in the flow but with High pressure so close to the south the main theme is of milder conditions for much of the period leading up to Christmas.

[shedhead]

Blimey, it's a bit like the Marie Celeste in here tonight, with tumbleweeds blowing across the foredeck... Having viewed the lateat output tho it's hardly surprising, with the big day itself now looking pretty mild

on ECM and positively tropical on GFS for the 2nd consequetive run. Hopefully short term pain will lead to long term gain, but this is a night for going on a pub run rather than waiting in for it!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Hopefully if it continues as it is it will eventully allow a Northern Blocking to set up which in turn would give us a better chance of seeing something wintery.

Gavin you are either on a wind up or you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about with that comment.

[Backtrack]

Hopefully if it continues as it is it will eventully allow a Northern Blocking to set up which in turn would give us a better chance of seeing something wintery.

Wait, what? :o

Someone hacked you Gavin?

I don't however see anything in the models that could lead to any Northern Blocking just yet. It's safe to say that areas away from Scotland probably won't be seeing anymore snow until sometime next month. A few colder shots, again from the NW in FI, which could lead to hill snow, but away from hills, snow will be at an absolute premium.

Snow lying on Christmas day? <5% chance away from Scotland. Scotland sees a decent chance as models predict a cold shot on Christmas eve, but that's 7 days away, just outside the reliable.

[keithlucky]

The tendency towards a flat zonal pattern next week is shown by all the models on the 12z run.

The winds swing back towards west or south west after the weekend as the Azores builds closer to the South of the uk by midweek bringing temps well above average for much of the country.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

There are likely to be brief incursions of colder air in the North towards next weekend as the PJF wavers north and south in the flow but with High pressure so close to the south the main theme is of milder conditions for much of the period leading up to Christmas.

All last week was said that the HP was going to throw up milder air from the swest it never happened,i agree we be in a brief milder spell Wednesday Thursday as HP to the south throws up a weak ridge,but the west to Northwest flow will be back by xmas.The long term i cant see this weather pattern changing for weeks,i seen many winters over the years with this constant pattern.

[phil nw.]

All last week was said that the HP was going to throw up milder air from the swest it never happened,i agree we be in a brief milder spell Wednesday Thursday as HP to the south throws up a weak ridge,but the west to Northwest flow will be back by xmas.The long term i cant see this weather pattern changing for weeks,i seen many winters over the years with this constant pattern.

It`s a pretty solid outlook for a milder period next week Keith thats for sure.

I agree the north will be prone to some brief north westerly winds with colder air but the jet flow is modelled unfavourably for anything long lasting or nationwide.

The High is shown quite close to our South further on and prevents any real cold spreading down here.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1921.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

If anything ,we have moved a step back from a cold zonal pattern and nearer to a high pressure situation later on.

Edited December 17, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[JP1972]

In terms of past model history, does our current model outlook lean towards a more favourable outcome (in terms of a colder evolution) are we likely to see a continuation of what we're already experiencing?

The reason I ask is because I'd be interested to know what maybe January and February MIGHT have to offer us.

[lorenzo]

In terms of past model history, does our current model outlook lean towards a more favourable outcome (in terms of a colder evolution) are we likely to see a continuation of what we're already experiencing?

The reason I ask is because I'd be interested to know what maybe January and February MIGHT have to offer us.

Have a look here an excellent summary of potential events for the start of 2012.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I assume GFS is showing a euro HP? Must be with some of the posts in here...in FI too? Oh dear.

BFTP

[phil nw.]

I assume GFS is showing a euro HP? Must be with some of the posts in here...in FI too? Oh dear.

BFTP

The models are certainly showing an approaching Azores High quite soon Fred,- here at T96hrs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

bringing in a zonal flow.

I am guessing you were trying to get a point over--would you like to elaborate, linking to what`s showing in the model runs?

[snowlover2009]

GOOD chuffing grief I thought that was flipping northern blocking then for tomorrow, that chart above!!!

Good chuffing grief

I can't wait for it to back to 0c maxes next year mmmmmm!!!

[Jason T]

It`s a pretty solid outlook for a milder period next week Keith thats for sure.

I agree the north will be prone to some brief north westerly winds with colder air but the jet flow is modelled unfavourably for anything long lasting or nationwide.

The High is shown quite close to our South further on and prevents any real cold spreading down here.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1921.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

If anything ,we have moved a step back from a cold zonal pattern and nearer to a high pressure situation later on.

As much as i admire your post's Phil- even a veteren as yourself cannot deny that output has not been consistent. At times it feels all models are acting like they lack their prozac dosage. Yes mild is showing for the holiday period but i will be shocked if it does beyond xmas eve as reliable seems to me 72 hours,and yes i know xmas eve is more than 72 hours away but it can change. Mybeliefe is untill evidence of a real pattern change shows (not to long now) model output will show much the same confused state.

SL

intake.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The models are certainly showing an approaching Azores High quite soon Fred,- here at T96hrs.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif

bringing in a zonal flow.

I am guessing you were trying to get a point over--would you like to elaborate, linking to what`s showing in the model runs?

Not really, one can guess what FI shows when reading who is posting. Not interested in t96, thats expected and its not going to bring in 3000miles of SW'lies for 6 weeks either Phil. Just like we aren't going to see easterlies from Yukutsk.

BFTP :w00t:

Edited December 17, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

as a matter of interest, the ecm day 10 ens mean chart for tomorrow wasnt too bad was it.

[phil nw.]

As much as i admire your post's Phil- even a veteren as yourself cannot deny that output has not been consistent. At times it feels all models are acting like they lack their prozac dosage. Yes mild is showing for the holiday period but i will be shocked if it does beyond xmas eve as reliable seems to me 72 hours,and yes i know xmas eve is more than 72 hours away but it can change. Mybeliefe is untill evidence of a real pattern change shows (not to long now) model output will show much the same confused state.

SL

intake.

There`s nothing confusing about current output imo.

All the main runs and i have looked at others like the GEM etc.too say the same really.

In this zonal pattern the only variables will be minor such as the exact placement of the surface features,but the overall pattern has been well modelled and i think we can safely look well beyond 72hrs.for a firm picture in this pattern.

At some point there will be something different i am sure but we can only analyise what is showing.

Not really, one can guess what FI shows when reading who is posting. Not interested in t96, thats expected and its not going to bring in 3000miles of SW'lies for 6 weeks either Phil.

BFTP :w00t:

I am sure you are not suggesting anyone has forecasted 6 weeks of Swesterlys.

Reading between the lines i think you are looking at a change sooner.

As much as i like reading your views it would be great if you could comment by referring to the Models in this thread mate.

It really doesn`t add anything if you just say what you believe is going to develop without some data.

I