Atlantic Storms - January 2012

[johnholmes]

Bellmullet-nw coast of Eire has fallen 4.3mb in the last hour and 10.2mb in the past 3 hours.

[PEMBS PIRATE]

The Met O have down graded the wind here a little to 70mph gusts by 6am......but.......i dont know should i be more worried about the rain it is very heavy now and only going to get a lot heavier.

[Liam J]

I'm not happy with the model differences mainly between the NAE & GFS 18z runs. We have the NAE showing a much stronger wind field and tighter core as it makes landfall also 10mb lower in pressure than the GFS is progging by 03z Tuesday.

Meto have added a few MPH on to my strongest gusts, (61mph @ 6am) (64mph @ 9am) (74mph @ 12pm) (70mph @ 3pm) updated @ 23:00hrs

Wind is picking up now and is quite noticeable around the house.

Edited January 2, 2012 by Liam J

[knocker]

nope on a diet prior to skiing mate-hoping the euro trough stays in the Wengen area then gets replaced by a large anticylcone!

I've often wondered can they fit little skis to the zimmer frame? I've got little wheels on mine. On a slightly (only slightly) more serious note I see the usual hysteria has taken over.

[bobbydog]

Quite a few posts are wandering off topic here folks and also if you'd like to carry on flirting (BD & Marie) please do so via pm

sorry liam, there's not much in the way of updated info at the mo, just enjoying the 'calm before the storm'...

I'm not happy with the model differences mainly between the NAE & GFS 18z runs. We have the NAE showing a much stronger wind field and tighter core as it makes landfall also 10mb lower in pressure than the GFS is progging by 03z Tuesday.

is there any new data to show which might be nearer the mark?

[wimblettben]

Well i am going to go to bed soon now.

Hopefully when I get up tomorrow I won't find us only having 20mph winds.

[johnholmes]

regarding the NAE and comments earlier, I think it may have been about the 18z GFS dropping the winds?!

NAE has, as Liam has commented above, actually dropped the pressure when its just off the Western Isles by 2mb and there is no decrease in tightness of the isobars as far as I can see.

pressure is falling in excess of 10 mb per 3 hour fairly widely ahead of the deepening low. This itself, without looking at any other data, upper air, dewpoints, sat piccs, radar etc etc, shows the low is continuing to deepen as Met predicted.

As to which model will have it right, who knows, although NAE should be the nearest one would hope given its origins!

sorry liam, there's not much in the way of updated info at the mo, just enjoying the 'calm before the storm'...

is there any new data to show which might be nearer the mark?

nope

Well i am going to go to bed soon now.

Hopefully when I get up tomorrow I won't find us only having 20mph winds.

mean possibly more like 22-24mph and gusts 40-45mph with prob 50 mph, much as Met predicted today for your area in the morning I suspect?

Edited January 2, 2012 by johnholmes

[Zenarcher]

GME will be the next model to update around 3am followed closely by NAE it varies from time to time when it becomes available but should be around 3am or 3.30am. GFS always starts bang on at 3.30am. I have a feeling NAE may be closer to the mark because I noticed each GFS run it was making the low slightly deeper every time like it was under doing it a touch meanwhile NAE has been more consistent with it.

The wind here has dropped right down and the pressure is dropping as well. It does look like the low is going to pass very close to me tomorrow just looking at my forecast for wind speed and direction its all over the place like South 20mph then East 30mph then North West 15mph etc.

Edited January 2, 2012 by weathermaster

[bobbydog]

regarding the NAE and comments earlier, I think it may have been about the 18z GFS dropping the winds?!

NAE has, as Liam has commented above, actually dropped the pressure when its just off the Western Isles by 2mb and there is no decrease in tightness of the isobars as far as I can see.

pressure is falling in excess of 10 mb per 3 hour fairly widely ahead of the deepening low. This itself, without looking at any other data, upper air, dewpoints, sat piccs, radar etc etc, shows the low is continuing to deepen as Met predicted.

As to which model will have it right, who knows, although NAE should be the nearest one would hope given its origins!

nope

mean possibly more like 22-24mph and gusts 40-45mph with prob 50 mph, much as Met predicted today for your area in the morning I suspect?

thanks for the info john, the meto have been very consistent with their predictions so far, personally i would go with them rather than GFS outputs

[knocker]

Some rainfall forecasts.

[Bobby]

Some rainfall forecasts.

That's a good 9-10 hours of heavy rain for here, some localised flooding looks likely. Started to rain fairly heavily now, wind increasing too. Should get 2 inches or so I'd guess.

[SxK]

Meto have just widened the yellow alert for wind in southern England to include London and Southern Essex.

[bobbydog]

wel i'm off to bed now, see you lot in 'the storm'!

just for the record, i was joking with marie, not 'flirting' - 'other halves' read this forum and things can easily be misinterpreted - choose your words carefully....

regards

rob

[Liam J]

According to the latest Atlantic analysis charts the depression is currently down to 973mb, not sure just how accurate these charts are as John H pointed out once so it's best used just to give a rough idea of how things currently stand.

Closer to mark is the GFS which was progging 976mb by 00z and the NAE 968mb, but the last update of 973mb was @ 23:00hrs and it may fallen further since.

http://meteocentre.c...=en&map=NEurope

Edited January 3, 2012 by Liam J

[Lancashire Lass]

wel i'm off to bed now, see you lot in 'the storm'!

just for the record, i was joking with marie, not 'flirting' - 'other halves' read this forum and things can easily be misinterpreted - choose your words carefully....

regards

rob

Lol Bobbydog we know you were joking.

Think rain is going to be more of an issue rather than the wind for this area.

[cj114]

I am off to Stansted at 3.45 to drop off Son. I imagine the wind and rain will not be too bad on the M11?? [she said hopefully]

[mikeocarroll]

I am off to Stansted at 3.45 to drop off Son. I imagine the wind and rain will not be too bad on the M11?? [she said hopefully]

AM or PM? Either way I don't think you will have anything much to worry about, disruption to travel seems unlikely especially on major routes.

Although best to drive carefully as there could be quite a bit of surface water.

Edited January 3, 2012 by mikeocarroll

[cj114]

Very hard to upload comments right now. Just wanted to add that the M11 is usually pretty awful in wind and rain.

Hi Mike, Thanks, it's a.m so not bothering to go to bed. Seems calmish out atm. Damn these light Cars, still prefer my old made of iron 3 ton monster, I never noticed wind in that!! lol

If it's too bad I may on the way back, get off at Harlow and take the chance of hitting hundreds of Deer on my way back through Epping.

Stansted is quite high up and usually windy too.

Will decide when I get there then.......................................surface water is only a real problem with loads of traffic and doubt there will be that much. Hopefully.

[scotteboi]

All quite on the Essex front atm...by all accounts the winds and rain are not progged to hit this area until 4-6am...if i have read/interpretted ealier posts....just in time for the station run!! Unless anyone out there who is much more clued up than me (which wouldn't be hard) can tell me any differently?

Just been outside for a ciggie...so mild for a January night!

Is the low still deepening??

[Verglas]

pressure crashing here, currently -3.3hpa/hr

Edited January 3, 2012 by Verglas

[Snow and storms]

rain started heavy here but not torrential. Wind picked up to a low rumble maybe 30mph gusts

[mikeocarroll]

Capel Curig reporting a 70mph gust now. Aberdaron 59mph. Milford Haven 52mph. Would expect all of these to report much stronger gusts in 2-3 hours or so.

[Verglas]

pressure dropping 4hpa/hr 986.5hpa (changes to steeper between taking screenshot and posting !)

heavy rain

now 985.1 -4.2hpa/hr

Edited January 3, 2012 by Verglas

[weatherobsuk]

Currently got one of those 'pressure headaches' with the Barometer currently at 997mb (dropping -3.26mb/hr) but it's looking the feature that will develop the squall-line shortly is now across eastern Ireland in a line from Dublin to Waterford. The next 4 hours will see this area develop further especially so into the Irish Sea.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Just been woken up by very strong winds and it says st bees head is reporting a max gust of 41mph which is 100% wrong it's atleast 55mph

Also the Netweather server is absolutely rubbish

Edited January 3, 2012 by I Cumbria Marra I