Atlantic Storms - January 2012

[Eabie]

Is there still more rain to come?

[weatherobsuk]

Sent a 'tweet' to the MetO just now, asking if the 'red status' will be initiated given the sting-jet over N.Ireland moving east.

[Lenticular]

The QE2 bridge is being closed as we speak and looking at the latest Atlantic surface pressure analyse the system could deepen a little further yet?

[Aaron]

Becoming windier and windier

[Liam J]

Just been outside with my anemometer gusts hitting 70-75mph!

Edited January 3, 2012 by Liam J

[Isolated Frost]

Bloody mild and wild here! Very strong wind gusts.. 50mph to 60mph gusts and increasing. Wet as well. Hoping for a wet and windy day to add at least some fun for the first day of term

[weatherobsuk]

Reply from twitter: The forecasters are aware of the situation an continue to monitor

[Evening thunder]

Come on squall line give me some action, All this atlantic weather the last month or two and I haven't even been able to get a higher gust than recorded in any of the last few years (2011 had the lowest 'highest gust')

Wind isn't even as strong here as it was earlier though..

Certainly looks dramatic in a few places up north

I notice at 6am Aberporth buoy was showing a sustained wind speed of 226mph on xcweather! :lol: (So strong it just shows up as a blue dot)

[sn0wman]

I have never seen anything like this. I'm actually really scared and surprised we've still got power. This is going to be the worst storm in years for the Central Belt and it's pretty shoddy from the Met Office to not issue a red warning. I'm sure a wind gust of 105mph is enough to warrant this? Mind you, I would have agreed with their warnings completely last night, but this morning they should realise what's happening and issue a red warning.

[Terminal Moraine]

A wet and windy morning here but nothing unusual. Highest gust so far has been 58 mph shortly before 0700, we'll see if the cold front can produce anything better.

[Guest]

Early risers and readers in northern England, southern Scotland -- look out, the storm is intense, wind gusts in exposed areas could reach 100-110 mph, structural damage, trees down. It has a tighter core than the models have programmed and a very active squall line. Lancs and Cumbria at risk of a severe windstorm starting very soon. Northeast England around 0900h.

I can vouch for the fact that this is starting to ramp up quite a bit, you can hear the winds higher up off the ground are really really strong. Haven't heard it like that for many years.

[Coast]

A few trees down and debris everywhere, just going to check if this has peaked here or if there are many more hours to come. Definitely more gusty at home on the coast, but fewer tress currently means less disruption.

OK, highest gust on the Eastbourne coast has been 57.1 mph, with sustained winds around 42 mph currently

[Insert Name Here]

Thank god this things travelling north east and not east. Worst of the winter so far here.

[weatherobsuk]

Tobermory & Millport showing roughly a meter high surge ontop of tides

http://www.pol.ac.uk/ntslf/networks.html

[Coast]

ESTOFEX showing the whole of the UK in their forecast and the first time in years I've seen the SE of England under a level 2!!!

Storm Forecast

Valid: Tue 03 Jan 2012 06:00 to Wed 04 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 02 Jan 2012 23:32

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued for SE-UK, the Netherlands, N-Belgium, N-Germany, Denmark and adjacent offshore areas mainly for severe to damaging wind gusts. An isolated, strong tornado event can't be ruled out.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 mainly for strong to severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

The major player for this forecast package will be a low pressure area over Scotland, which moves eastwards and eventually approaches S-Norway and Sweden during the end of the forecast period. Models and ensemble data are on a similar track and show a deepening low, which enters the N-North Sea during the early daytime hours. Some discrepancies exist in how far the vortex deepens, with GFS members still indicating substantial spread in the surface pressure fields. Healthy looking satellite presentation, good persistence in past model runs and also satisfying performance in similar, past events let me lean more towards GFS and hence, we will use a blend of GFS/WRF and ECMWF for this outlook.

Modified tropical air from the Bahamas fuels the system, resulting in a rapidly intensifying baroclinic zone west of Scotland. This region of high baroclinity was the place of birth for that depression. Also, a pronounced reservoir of stratospheric air with an high content of IPV can be detected just NW of the developing depression. This air mass becomes incorporated into the rapid cyclogenesis process in form of an healthy, eastward moving dry slot. This set-up assists in an overlap of dry stratospheric air, moist LL air and strong forcing over the North Sea and adjacent areas. Latest phase diagrams indicate a developing (shallow) warm core structure as the feature crosses the North Sea and as a pronounced occlusion starts to wrap around the center. The overall evolution seems to follow a classic, major cold conveyor belt cyclogenesis.

DISCUSSION

... Parts of Ireland, UK, parts of the North Sea, Netherlands, parts of Belgium, N-Germany, Denmark, S-Sweden and the S-Baltic Sea....

The first feature of interest will be the eastward racing cold front, which moves off Ireland during the start of the forecast, then affects UK during the morning hours, Benelux during the afternoon hours and N-Germany thereafter. Of interest is the concurrence between the strong surface front and an IPV streamer, which are both well co-located in past few model runs. Propelled by a stout PVA max, the cold front passage will be pretty active in form of a forced line of convection (LEWP-like) and a solid line of enhanced convection is expected to race eastwards (e.g. over SE-UK, the Netherlands and Belgium, N/NE-Germany, NW Poland and parts of the Baltic Sea). A potent 30-40 m/s 700 hPa jet points into the backside of the cold front with 25-30 m/s at 850 hPa. Forecast soundings hint at a deeply mixed postfrontal air mass and numerous severe to damaging wind gusts are well possible along the cold front. There is not yet an indication that a concentrated swath of damaging wind gusts evolves along the cold front, so the level 2 was cut off onshore pretty fast. Also, with SRH values running off the chart, we can't exclude embedded, rotating cells with a tornado risk. With expected LL CAPE/shear overlap, even an isolated strong tornado event is possible. The cold front gradually outruns strongest wind fields as the depression over SW-Norway slows down, so the overall risk gradually diminishes further east over the Baltic Sea. However, we decided to expand the level areas far to the east as the weakening phase of forced, convective lines are not well handled in global model fields.

The activity gradually diminishes south of the level 2, as the front drops to the south over France and W-Germany. It becomes aligned more parallel to the background flow and will be left behind strongest forcing to the north, so degree of organization becomes less betimes. Nevertheless, sporadic thunderstorms are possible as far south as CNTRL/E-France and S-Germany with cold front featuring either a more solid LEWP or numerous smaller narrow cold front rainbands. Strong/severe wind gusts will be the primary hazard.

Another area of interest will be the E-North Sea, Denmark, Skaggerak and Kattegat, as the back-bent occlusion approaches from the west. Timing will be 18Z onwards although some discrepancies exist with ongoing model uncertainties. However, the set up for widespread low-end/marginal SBCAPE build-up is present as a pronounced pool of dry stratospheric air overruns the backwards banded occlusion at lower levels. 35-40 m/s winds at 850 hPa rapidly evolve over the E-North Sea and spread eastwards. Favorable downward transport of those extreme winds and scattered shallow/deep convection assist in a swath of damaging and potential life threatening wind gusts over Denmark and surrounding offshore areas. Also, an isolated strong tornado event can't be discounted, given the aformentioned overlap of shear and CAPE.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=current;type=maxg;sess=

[aggy]

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This one current;y blowing bawbag out the water

[weatherobsuk]

Just look at that echo over North Glasgow, i've seen RADAR returns on sting-jets like this and is indicative of severe SLW 'bouncing' from the ground layer and back into evaporative dry air entrailing. Stirling better be prepared for 100mph gusts soon.

[Joey.G]

As a southern fairy up here in Balloch, Dumbartonshire this is the worst ive seen for years, lights flickering and street lights have been on and off. I know the trees are a bit tougher up here but Im still trying to convince my gf that the sick animals can wait till this afternoon and not to go out!

[Zenarcher]

Can't sleep so UPDATE

The low is much deeper than what any model has predicted with 955mb reported at Tiree earlier. I'm finding NAE and the latest ECM runs the most accurate.

The ECM done well saying average wind speed for Northern Ireland to be around 70mph when it actually hit 77mph despite being 7mph off its much more accurate than the GFS.

6am

9am the storm force winds will head into Southern Scotland and looking at XCWeather they already are.

12pm the ECM shows it strengthen as it moves over Scotland bringing very high winds for Eastern Scotland.

For me it started getting windy around 6am with some big gusts and its eased off slightly but still wild out there.

[Aaron]

OMG insane.. super strong gusts and pouring rain.. low visibility

[Guest]

Wait til you see the pic of the tree that is snapped in half in my parents' garden!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Waw!!!!!!

Will need to wait until proper daylight but that is amazing. Clean snapped it!!!

Edited January 3, 2012 by CatchMyDrift

[Coast]

Although we haven't had it as bad as the North and Scotland, looks like there is still more to come. This is the Channel light vessel currently:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=62305&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT

[Zenarcher]

Met Office have a red alert out

Storm force winds will affect the central belt of Scotland at first this morning, leading to widespread disruption to travel and the potential for damage to buildings. Gusts will reach 85-95 mph.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

[Insert Name Here]

Under red now

[Nick F]

Have issued a moderate risk of severe weather in my convective forecast today:

http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=