Atlantic Storms - January 2012

[Liam J]

Little respite even as the depression is moving into the north sea, models picking up on a small wave following the main low further intensifying the wind strength. Prolonged period of stormy weather, further severe gales are likely later on Wednesday as well.

Edited January 2, 2012 by Liam J

[Coast]

I have a sneaky feeling that this first one of 2012 could be the most widespread and damaging of the recent Winter Atlantic lows.

Starting in Ireland:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 02 Jan 2012 06:00 to Tue 03 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 01 Jan 2012 18:38

Forecaster: DAHL

A level 1 was issued across Ireland mainly for severe convective straight-line winds.

SYNOPSIS

The progressive pattern continues with an upper trough crossing the western and central parts of Europe on Monday. The southern tip of this trough will be stripped off as the system crosses the Alps, yielding a small cut-off low over the NW Mediterranean by early Tuesday morning. Ahead of this developing upper low, SFC cyclogenesis will occur, which will be a focus for convective development on Monday.

A subsequent short-wave trough and an attendant compact and deepening SFC low will affect the western British Isles late in the period.

... Ireland ...

A rather marginal situation in terms of deep convection will exist along the cold front of the compact Atlantic system reaching the western British Isles late in the period. Although no deep instability is advertised by either GFS or HIRLAM, strong mesoscale forcing for ascent along the cold front may support a narrow/shallow line of forced convection. Given wind velocities of 35 m/s at 850 hPa, the outflow of this convection may be accompanied by severe wind gusts. The updrafts of this convection may be too weak and shallow to produce an appreciable amount of lightning.

http://www.estofex.org/

[Coast]

[Cloud 10]

Always nice to get the big picture!

An interesting day tomorrow for sure.

[The PIT]

Interestingly the met office forecast for wind has Wednesday evening as the windiest spell for us gusting to 51 mph while 49 is the max during Tuesday. Anyway lets see what happens.

[kaja]

hi all

just run my da prog for the latest

[lorenzo]

Looks quite innocent in Atlantic View rather than up close.

This is a good shot of the system and also the Air Masses involved, the belt of warmer air evident in the Green Ranges and the Cold Air in Red. You can also see the LP SW of Iceland turning the flow and creating the showers of snow hitting Western Parts of Scotland.

That is one of the strongest cold airmass Satellite profiles I have seen on these recent systems, digging all the way down to NE Spanish Coast.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looking very nasty for the whole of the UK..Stay safe people..When can we expect things to start turning wild? I guess with the speed in which this low is moving it's going to be a pretty quick change in terms of weather from clam to stormy..

[johnholmes]

Looks quite innocent in Atlantic View rather than up close.

This is a good shot of the system and also the Air Masses involved, the belt of warmer air evident in the Green Ranges and the Cold Air in Red. You can also see the LP SW of Iceland turning the flow and creating the showers of snow hitting Western Parts of Scotland.

That is one of the strongest cold airmass Satellite profiles I have seen on these recent systems, digging all the way down to NE Spanish Coast.

yes that is a nice illustration there L so I've left all the post in-worth seeing more than once in my view

[geoffw]

06z looks weaker for northern ireland anyway?

[sn0wman]

Looks quite innocent in Atlantic View rather than up close.

This is a good shot of the system and also the Air Masses involved, the belt of warmer air evident in the Green Ranges and the Cold Air in Red. You can also see the LP SW of Iceland turning the flow and creating the showers of snow hitting Western Parts of Scotland.

That is one of the strongest cold airmass Satellite profiles I have seen on these recent systems, digging all the way down to NE Spanish Coast.

It really looks like it's about to undergo explosive cyclogenesis, with all that dry air being dragged into the core. Love watching these type of systems develop!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Calm before the storm here....Bright blue skys and glorious sunshine pouring through the window

[bobbydog]

Calm before the storm here....Bright blue skys and glorious sunshine pouring through the window

very different from yesterday! ...and from this time tomorrow!

[Liam J]

A look at the 6z NAE pedicted track of the system from 00z - 12z Tuesday, very strong winds affecting most of the country with severe gale force winds penetrating inland in some areas. Deepening to around 950mb by 12z tomorrow off the Aberdeenshire coast.

Latest Meto forecast updates for my location are predicting gusts of 75mph during Tuesday.

Also notice the small feature to the west of the main low, this is set to move towards NW England Tuesday afternoon.

Edited January 2, 2012 by Liam J

[NO LONGER POSTING]

very different from yesterday! ...and from this time tomorrow!

Indeed, we had so much rain yesterday here!! And with the next lot coming and high winds :/

[Liam J]

Wow have a look at Wednesdays jet profile, that's about as strong it gets!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Come tonight I think the forum will be jam packed

[knocker]

Forecast charts for 0300, 0312 and wind gusts for the latter. Note the highest gusts are along the south coast.

Edited January 2, 2012 by weather ship

[bobbydog]

looks like the peak of the storm in the south east will be just in time for rush hour. 50- 60mph gusts well inland

http://www.metoffice...ecast_wind.html

actually, make that 60-70mph inland!

Edited January 2, 2012 by bobbydog

[Liam J]

Some of the highest gusts over NW England and Central/Southern scotland during Tuesday, the 73mph on the Cumbrian coast is my town.

TBH I think the estimates shown are a little conservative from the Meto.

Edited January 2, 2012 by Liam J

[Chris D]

Some of the highest gusts over NW England and Central/Southern scotland during Tuesday, the 73mph on the Cumbrian coast is my town.

TBH I think the estimates shown are a little conservative from the Meto.

Aren't they always conservative?

That being said, I am expecting the peak gust(s) here in Southport tomorrow to be in the region of 65mph - which is around the Met's estimate. You're looking at 75mph I think for your location, so I think they're not too far out with their figs.

I think for Wales and the S part of NW England, Wednesday evening could bring some more potentially damaging gusts prior to the cold front pushing through. This is another one to watch out for. 70mph being suggested for my location, for instance.

http://expert-images...010421_0206.gif

Edited January 2, 2012 by chris93

[bobbydog]

Some of the highest gusts over NW England and Central/Southern scotland during Tuesday, the 73mph on the Cumbrian coast is my town.

TBH I think the estimates shown are a little conservative from the Meto.

looking at those wind charts, it looks like the whole country will get a battering. the sustained and gust speeds are (very) roughly the same for everywhere!

[Liam J]

looking at those wind charts, it looks like the whole country will get a battering. the sustained and gust speeds are (very) roughly the same for everywhere!

Many areas will be battered by gales or severe gales, 70mph+ gusts along the south coast, 50-60mph inland. Areas further north and west potential for gusts around 70-80mph with 60-70mph inland. A widespread event indeed.

Edited January 2, 2012 by Liam J

[Lt. Dan]

Is there an indication of a possible stingjet on the models as well? Looking through the NMM it's showing some signs early tomorrow morning, particularly around the Irish sea, North/North western areas. Some noticeable drier air around the 500/700hpa level (even down to 850hpa in some places) along with windspeeds around 90-100mph at 925hpa . Could be potential for some quite damaging gusts?

[Liam J]

Updated Meto yellow & amber warnings for wind, Scotland, N Ireland and N England, also an amber warning of snow for Scotland.

> http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html <

Edited January 2, 2012 by Liam J