Atlantic Storms - January 2012

[Liam J]

Bit of interest for us on Tuesday regarding the LP system potentially tracking over Northern UK. Something for us to keep an eye on and give us something to discuss especially as things have been so quiet lately.

Things have been quiet lately LL? Certainly not in Cumbria

[Lancashire Lass]

Things have been quiet lately LL? Certainly not in Cumbria

Yep quiet here. Tad windy but that's about it.

[The PIT]

Feb 2002 was a even windier month http://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/weather%202002/feb02.html which carried on into March 2002 http://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/weather%202002/mar02.html

Thats the windiest substained period I can remember.

[Andy Bown]

I'm not sure if anyone else from the West Country has posted today about thw wind, but IMO today has been the windiest day of

the Autumn/Winter so far.

It started quite calm with light showers, however a trough late morning/lunchtime was accompanied by heavy squally rain and gale force gusts. These

have continued throughout the afternoon into the evening leading to very fast moving turbulent skies being visible during the daylight.

[legritter]

nearly got blown over today ,nothing major but went up garden for a little skive in our shed . when i came out there was a gust ,which nearly took the door off , we might be stuck in generally mild muck but its certainly ACTIVE .next weeks low as very good potential , but we need to wait for tomorrows runs to firm things up , then tomorrow nights fax to give us a possible track .if it does track further south it COULD be the start of something a little bit wintry , IT CAN happen like this . we dont know what the models might be showing come monday , i dont post very often in this part of the forum but i am always looking in ,so thanks to the people who post charts and data etc ,take care ,regards legritter

[Liam J]

GFS 18z takes the storm track further north with the very strongest winds over Northern Scotland and especially the Northern Isles as the low continues to deepen rapidly with a very tight core, it would still be pretty windy over much of the country on the 18z and this system will produce a very active cold front leading to very strong squally gusts.

Speculation for the time being with still a number of days to go before we can call this one with confidence.

Edited December 29, 2011 by Liam J

[The PIT]

GFS takes the low back to it's more original course with the winds stronger but shorter lived blasting across northern England and end central England. Winds up 80 mph possible.

[Liam J]

Meto fax charts are now within range of the storm next Tuesday, current predictions show a very intense depression with insane tightly packed isobars crossing Northern UK and would likely result in severe gales over land?

Also attached is a GFS 6z isotach 10m mean wind speed (km/h) for 6am Tuesday, indicating severe gales round most coastal areas of the British Isles and storm force winds over the north Irish Sea affecting N & NW England, N Ireland & SW Scotland. The depression continues to deepen as it tracks NE with violent winds transferring over Eastern Scotland and NE England.

Widespread damaging gusts of 70-80mph over coastal areas and high ground, perhaps 90mph in a few locations further north, the return to work after the Christmas break could be treacherous.

Still some time to go before the event so changes may be expected over the coming days.

Edited December 30, 2011 by Liam J

[geoffw]

omg this does look bad but not as bad as the storm which drifted way too far south?

[Matty M]

Is funny how not much talk about this.

Although still uncertainty developing it seems to develope quite similar to the faux storm which turned to nothing recently.

As developed moving out of Newfoundland but breaking into two centres before racing across B&I

I reckon it will be the track that does the damage. Think about it, all the big storms this season have been well off to the north, if we can get a moderate storm as played out by the GFS on the 6z, it will bring the strongest winds to more populated regions with less experience of such winds. Gusting from 70-80mph in this region is of concern.

[Matty M]

Doesn't look like being as bad, but the whole set up reminds me of the Stephen's Day Storm of 1998.

Same set up although the latest models aren't as bullish as this

[johnholmes]

yes, interesting weather and the model thread largely drones on about will it wont it turn frigid and when and if not why not!

As always with deepening lows the track and depth will change from run to run. Over the period though we will see the disparity from run to run, and model to model, decrease. By T+48 a pretty good idea on both and by T+24 it should be fairly clear which areas are at risk of any damaging winds.

Follow the Fax positions and the sat piccs, the one that plays the infra red sequence through, I'll find it and post it in here, will be good to follow its movement and evelopment.

the link

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

Edited December 30, 2011 by johnholmes

[Matty M]

In the Stephen's Day storm of 1998, there was a 108MPH gust at Malin Head and also gusts above 100MPH at Belmullet. 200k homes were without electricity and there was widespread damage in the northwest of Ireland and power outages and tree falls widespread in north of the region. 3 people died as a result of the storm and it was the windiest period in over 30 years for the region at that date.

[geoffw]

omg this does look bad but not as bad as the storm which drifted way too far south?

[legritter]

yes certainly one to watch .will be interesting chart watchtng over next couple of days . will be interesting if this low does track further south , at least we will get plenty of warning from met office , i dont think it will finish up a channel low ,but could finish up very deep somewhere ,eng /scot borders , with a very tight pressure gradiant further south ,and some very interesting weather behind ,cold front . just a thought if it does track further south as of todays predictions ,it COULD be heralding something going on in the very complicated subject that we are all in love with . many years ago before all these modells etc and only about 144 hr charts to generally go by ,a north atlantic low in winter ,heading further south or s/e was a good sign of a possible change , i suggest any learners take notice of JOHN HOLMES ,follow movement and developement read all information put on by experienced members etc ,keep a record for future reference , and enjoy the ride ,regards legritter ps my new computer or reconditioned one was no good ,hope to sort problem soon

[lorenzo]

I wonder just when the Atlantic is going to calm down ! It seems there is a never ending train of these systems at present, just when you think well we cannot have another like this, a new LP bombs across.

There are some wild options within the GEFS on review in the regional thread this morning, to save cluttering everywhere with attachments the 6 most extreme runs are displayed here.

[wimblettben]

I'm not sure if anyone else from the West Country has posted today about thw wind, but IMO today has been the windiest day of

the Autumn/Winter so far.

It started quite calm with light showers, however a trough late morning/lunchtime was accompanied by heavy squally rain and gale force gusts. These

have continued throughout the afternoon into the evening leading to very fast moving turbulent skies being visible during the daylight.

I agree as well!

Had a max wind gust on my weather station in the garden of 37mph and frequent gusts in the thirties which is rare. Just wen't outside for a walk today and noticed that there were a lot of twigs and even one or two branches on the tracks and roads.

[knocker]

The problem is the west country seems to spread from Lands End to the outskirts of London.

[The PIT]

Met office aren't as confident about this one as the last no show. No warnings as yet. Lets keep watching.

[shotski]

Met office aren't as confident about this one as the last no show. No warnings as yet. Lets keep watching.

What one ??? Could you be more specific in your posts please

[The PIT]

What one ??? Could you be more specific in your posts please

The same one as everybodies else is talking about. :smilz38:

[shotski]

The same one as everybodies else is talking about. :smilz38:

everybodie else apart from the met office eh!!!!

[The PIT]

Funnily enough they were before and released the warning just as the GFS shunted everything south. I noticed ECM has it further south on the latest run compaired to the GFS. I suspect tomorrow will be when they first mention it. Perhaps they learn't the lesson from last time.

Edited December 30, 2011 by The PIT

[johnholmes]

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

the latest Fax charts are out for T+96 and T+120

copied into model thread as well

[Harps]

Scotland taking a beating on the 18z, still no consensus on track or when it'll deepen but there's potential that it could be a real notable event