Atlantic Storms - January 2012

[The PIT]

No update to the warnings since orginal post so still outside of the zone although the wind is already picking up.

[Matty M]

Looks deeper and futher north on Sat Pics and also illustrated on 18z GFS

Looks dangerous for much of Scotland and Northern parts of NI.

I hope people in Cities such as Glasgow, Edinburgh etc, others on here would be better with Scottish geography but these large centres are likely to recieve winds gusting to 80mph tomorrow for a few hours.

I think this one has really gone unnoticed.

Perhaps BBC News @ 10 will highlight this system.

[andy100]

Well I must admit Im looking forward to bawbag v2

[Matty M]

They must have read my post!!

I think they are being abit conservative with those digits.

60mph and 70mph through the exposed belts but they did mention upto 80mph, although i feel this should have

been shown in the graphics.

[Liam J]

The ITV National weather just before 7pm ramped this up, Sian lloyds graphics were showing gusts of 70-90mph over Central Scotland and 70mph over Northern England.

From SkyWarn -

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #071

ISSUED: 1430UTC TUESDAY 27TH DECEMBER 2011 (SM/GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

SCOTLAND

NORTHERN IRELAND

NORTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT UNTIL 0600UTC THURSDAY 29TH DECEMBER 2011

A WELL DEVELOPED DEEP LOW IS MATURING AS IT TRANSITS NORTHERN SCOTLAND, BRINGING SEVERE GALES

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IMMINENTLY, OR OCCURRING, SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGIONS INDICATED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WARNING INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

SEVERE GALES...STRONG GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN...LOCALISED FLOODING...GROUND DEFORMATION AND LANDSLIDES

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONFIDENCE OF A SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DEEP LOW HAS DEVELOPED AS PER MODEL GUIDANCE TO THE WEST, WITH THE JET OVERRUNING THE PATTERN AS THE STORM CROSSES SCOTLAND. WINDS AROUND THE CENTRAL PORTION WILL AVERAGE ABOVE 50MPH, WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 70MPH, PERHAPS 90MPH OVER EXPOSED COASTAL REGIONS AND HIGH GROUND. THE HIGHLANDS, CENTRAL BELT AND EASTERN SCOTLAND ARE MOST AT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS HERE, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTHERN IRELAND, NORTHERN ENGLAND AND THE OUTER ISLANDS. HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MAY SEE ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 30MM, PERHAPS 60MM OVER HIGH GROUND OF SCOTLAND, FALLING ON ALREADY OVER SATURATED GROUND. LOCALISED FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN STEEP CATCHMENTS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS COINCIDING WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE FOR WESTERN SCOTLAND GENERATING A FLOOD RISK ALONG COASTSAL AREAS. A POST-FRONTAL DISRUPTED SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN SHEARED INSTABILITY IN THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MAY PROVIDE BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL WITH STRONG GUSTS FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED, THOUGH THIS FEATURE IS BLOWN OUT BY THE JET INTO LUNCHTIME. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THE CENTRAL OCCLUSION MAY ALSO ENHANCE GUSTS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH WESTERN, EASTERN AND CENTRAL SCOTLAND THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH SHEAR IS FAIRLY LINEAR. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

Edited December 27, 2011 by Liam J

[Matty M]

I think they squeezed in that 30 second national forecast on purpose at the last minute, the local news seemed to be well rushed!

[West is Best]

Staggeringly cavalier attitude to this storm. There is significant risk of disruption and damage, but very few sources seem to be mentioning it.

[Matty M]

It does seem to be taking quite a northerly route at this point.

I would say it could be abit further north than forecast

[SparkleS]

I agree with the above comment, not alot said here.

http://news.sky.com/home/video/uk-news/video/16121493

[picog]

It does seem to be taking quite a northerly route at this point.

I would say it could be abit further north than forecast

Coming back on the ferry tomorrow from Dublin to Holyhead, so it could be rough or even very rough. Not great as I'm not the world's best sailor!

[Cookie]

Going to be an intresting 24 hrs hold on to you're hats!

[Liam J]

So far the track is following model guidance very well looking at the current positioning on the satellite images, as predicted the the storm now has much more of an easterly movement from it's current position although the cloud spinning around the central vortex may give an illusion of an NE'wards movement.

Edited December 27, 2011 by Liam J

[andy100]

Winds are picking up here now

[Zenarcher]

Its looking very windy here tomorrow GFS has the wind speed average at 65mph so not as high as the storm earlier in the month which had 72mph in the forecast. Still going to be very stormy though. Looking at XCWeather the Tiree station isn't reporting shame as it will be handy for tomorrow.

I'm thinking of setting up a live stream web cam tomorrow over looking the bay with these winds to give you all a taste of the Western Isles storms. Would anyone be interested?

[Puddleduck]

Yes. Absolutely!

[AlexM94]

what is the current track of the storm likely to be? anyone know how bad it will be for us in the far nothern areas for the highlands?

[Zenarcher]

what is the current track of the storm likely to be? anyone know how bad it will be for us in the far nothern areas for the highlands?

You shouldn't be in the worse area affected but you can expect gusts around 65mph to 75mph in the afternoon.

I've put my webcam on here's the link http://www.ustream.tv/channel/sean-s-cam

A 15 second ad might appear once its finished it should load up. If any other ads pop up at the bottom just close them

Also if your wondering what that flashing red light is its just to warn ships of rocks. It's not a UFO

[AlexM94]

You shouldn't be in the worse area affected but you can expect gusts around 65mph to 75mph in the afternoon.

I've put my webcam on here's the link http://www.ustream.t...nnel/sean-s-cam

A 15 second ad might appear once its finished it should load up. If any other ads pop up at the bottom just close them

Also if your wondering what that flashing red light is its just to warn ships of rocks. It's not a UFO

thanks will still be pretty windy day here then! just had a look at your cam, not looking too bad over there yet! probably all different by daylight though lol

Edited December 28, 2011 by weatherboy

[Zenarcher]

thanks will still be pretty windy day here then! just had a look at your cam, not looking too bad over there yet! probably all different by daylight though lol

Yeah the wind is just picking up now but in day light it will be better to see. Going to turn the cam off now will be back up in the morning.

[The PIT]

Staggeringly cavalier attitude to this storm. There is significant risk of disruption and damage, but very few sources seem to be mentioning it.

Hi West probably a reflection on the previous huge storm prediction that was leaked out too early to the media and ended up hardly effecting anybody because of the track being so far south. Plus it's up North where we still run stage coaches and wear funny hats so it doesn't matter.

[Liam J]

Pretty windy here already, predicted gusts here this afternoon are around 65-70mph while further north into Scotland can expect gusts around 70-80mph perhaps a bit more, the north coast of Ireland is also likely to be badly affected.

Expect some disruption to materialise this afternoon with hazardous driving conditions from N England northwards with the worse conditions likely over Central and Western Scotland.

Remaining very windy well into Thursday with gales persisting although the very strong gales will be moderating.

Edited December 28, 2011 by Liam J

[Aaron]

I am down for 52mph gust by the Met Office..

[Zenarcher]

Very windy at the moment current gusts around 60mph.

I've put my webcam on now and it should stay on until 4pm unless the power goes off,

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/sean-s-cam

[lorenzo]

Very windy at the moment current gusts around 60mph.

I've put my webcam on now and it should stay on until 4pm unless the power goes off,

http://www.ustream.t...nnel/sean-s-cam

Hope the pylons stay up for you - just going to tune in now .

[Liam J]

Malin Head, N Ireland wind 53mph gust 78mph > http://www.xcweather.co.uk/