Atlantic Storms - January 2012

[Zenarcher]

Hope the pylons stay up for you - just going to tune in now .

Hope so as well. It may not look to bad at the moment but its meant to be at its worst around 2pm.

You can actually make out where the low is on the NW radar,

[lorenzo]

Great minds and all that ! Just posted the exact same on the Regional Thread.

Cam is looking very blustery now.. linked it on the regional too..

[MisfitDog3]

and if you look at the visible satellite picture you can clearly see a defined 'eye'.....

[Coast]

ESTOFEX sum today up nicely:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 28 Dec 2011 08:00 to Thu 29 Dec 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 28 Dec 2011 07:58

Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A very active weather pattern is prevalent over northern half of Europe, especially concerning the western part. A significant short wave with dry intrusion behind the axis of the jet-streak is accompanied by a very deep surface low pressure system. This system will affect most of Western Europe and Scandinavia. Pronounced sting-jet at the southern fringe (over 40 m/s at 850 hPa) of the low center will likely lead to very strong wind gusts (even hurricane force) over a swath from Scotland across the Northern Sea towards western coasts of Denmark. Even though some instability is present, especially within the dry intrusion of the trough, current satellite image reveals only weak cellular regularly spaced convection, without any more pronounced, organised system. It is therefore not very likely that DMC would significantly contribute to the overall strenght of the wind gusts and no Level is introduced.

With SkyWarn also commenting as follows:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #071

ISSUED: 1430UTC TUESDAY 27TH DECEMBER 2011 (SM/GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

SCOTLAND NORTHERN IRELAND NORTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT UNTIL 0600UTC THURSDAY 29TH DECEMBER 2011

A WELL DEVELOPED DEEP LOW IS MATURING AS IT TRANSITS NORTHERN SCOTLAND, BRINGING SEVERE GALES

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IMMINENTLY, OR OCCURRING, SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGIONS INDICATED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WARNING INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

SEVERE GALES...STRONG GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN...LOCALISED FLOODING...GROUND DEFORMATION AND LANDSLIDES

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONFIDENCE OF A SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DEEP LOW HAS DEVELOPED AS PER MODEL GUIDANCE TO THE WEST, WITH THE JET OVERRUNING THE PATTERN AS THE STORM CROSSES SCOTLAND. WINDS AROUND THE CENTRAL PORTION WILL AVERAGE ABOVE 50MPH, WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 70MPH, PERHAPS 90MPH OVER EXPOSED COASTAL REGIONS AND HIGH GROUND. THE HIGHLANDS, CENTRAL BELT AND EASTERN SCOTLAND ARE MOST AT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS HERE, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTHERN IRELAND, NORTHERN ENGLAND AND THE OUTER ISLANDS. HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MAY SEE ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 30MM, PERHAPS 60MM OVER HIGH GROUND OF SCOTLAND, FALLING ON ALREADY OVER SATURATED GROUND. LOCALISED FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN STEEP CATCHMENTS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS COINCIDING WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE FOR WESTERN SCOTLAND GENERATING A FLOOD RISK ALONG COASTSAL AREAS. A POST-FRONTAL DISRUPTED SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN SHEARED INSTABILITY IN THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MAY PROVIDE BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL WITH STRONG GUSTS FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED, THOUGH THIS FEATURE IS BLOWN OUT BY THE JET INTO LUNCHTIME. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THE CENTRAL OCCLUSION MAY ALSO ENHANCE GUSTS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH WESTERN, EASTERN AND CENTRAL SCOTLAND THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH SHEAR IS FAIRLY LINEAR. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

Some severe turbulence expected at lower levels:

Rain:

and the gusts:

Getting worse for Scotland's mainland during the late afternoon:

Sustained winds increasing around the North Sea facing coasts as well:

[lorenzo]

Some big readings from up Cairngorm mountain.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/3065.html

183 Km/h !

[Liam J]

Sustained wind speed of 67mph recorded over Northern Ireland, the location isn't on the coast either! Eglinton, Londonderry. Pretty severe around that area right now, only 7mph off hurricane force 12.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Very windy here, been down to the sea front to grab a few pics. Gusts around 55-60mph+ atm.

Edited December 28, 2011 by Liam J

[knocker]

Yes taken over ten minutes. The midday charts and interesting high resolution Modis for 1151. Image courtesy "NERC Satellite Receiving Station, Dundee University, Scotland" http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/

Edited December 28, 2011 by weather ship

[lorenzo]

Forgot I had registration for that site WS, time to pretend am in space..

Image courtesy "NERC Satellite Receiving Station, Dundee University, Scotland" http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/

Geostationary Image

[Arnie Pie]

Yes taken over ten minutes. The midday charts and interesting high resolution Modis for 1151. Image courtesy "NERC Satellite Receiving Station, Dundee University, Scotland" http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/

Bit of a noddy question here

The band of cloud moving down the country, which on the sat image is currently over the Midlands

This has a very defined rear edge

Is this what a trough would look like on satellite? or does it have another name?

[knocker]

To be honest I'm not sure. There is a trough on the midday chart but it's further south so I suspect it's the back edge of the cold front but the front itself is a fair distance away.

[knocker]

I was going to post the Nottingham midday sounding but they don't appear to have done one. There is a dearth of upper air soundings in the UK these days. So here is Ekofisk oil platform instead. Not as good but it is behind the front. The 500mb height is 5330.

Edited December 28, 2011 by weather ship

[The PIT]

One of the quieter days of this active Atlantic spell max gust only 42 mph, I wonder tomorrow will bring.

[Arnie Pie]

Cheers weather ship & weather 09

[Cookie]

highest gust of 76 mph here!

[Cheese Rice]

Gusting 47 Mph here.

Temperature: 5.c

[The PIT]

Interesting supposed to be dying down not getting up, We've passed 50 mph once again now up to 53 mph. 6th time this month we've hit or passed 50 mph.

[Liam J]

Still very windy here gusting around 60mph, max gust today 65mph,

Low lying coastal roads in west Cumbria were closed today, combination of high tides and gale force westerly winds causing large waves and spray to make them impassable.

Edited December 28, 2011 by Liam J

[helen of the north]

top gust 78.7 mph at 16:28 and ramping up again with gusts in the mid 70's the past hour. 992mb currently.

[Zenarcher]

I think the winds here were a bit under estimated at least the gusts were. The gusts were even higher than the storm earlier this month here. Sadly my house was exposed to the wind today it was coming from a different direction that wind speeds this high rarely come from. So I have minor damage to my roof, I heard a big bang around 4pm and that was the damage being done. Power went off at 3.30pm and has just come back on.

[The PIT]

Just hit 59 mph the highest of the month. People haven't taken in their xmas lights might end up regretting it.

[Liam J]

This season has certainly been more active so far than the last two years put together up north and the Atlantic isn't about to give up any time soon, the very unsettled pattern will continue for some time yet with potential for further intense depressions affecting our shores.

Winds slackening off here now but it's still very windy with gusts exceeding 50mph, one thing that hasn't been mentioned is how cold it's felt today with a severe wind chill, the temp has been around 6c and combined with gale force winds gusting over 60mph....

[knocker]

Haven't been able to access the Watnall, Notts ascent for some time now. I usually visit the UoW's (Wyoming Uni) website, but they seem to no longer provide the sounding for that location.

I suspect it's now not in operation or if it is it's on request only. It was a Vaisala automatic ground station operated by either Camborne or Lerwick.

[Coast]

Haven't been able to access the Watnall, Notts ascent for some time now. I usually visit the UoW's (Wyoming Uni) website, but they seem to no longer provide the sounding for that location.

Forecast soundings here:

http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/RASPtable.html

Used to keep this one up to date, but there aren't any readings for three days - could be holidays?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=temps&MODELLTYP=4&BASE=-&VAR=temps&WMO=03354&HH=240&ARCHIV=0

Same here:

http://www.skystef.be/sounding.htm

[Liam J]

Still pretty windy here this morning some gusts around 45-50mph and if anything the wind is set to increase around the middle of the day, gale force winds predicted over the Irish Sea also gusts of 50-55mph progged here.

Not much change on the horizon as we enter 2012 with the first few days looking potentially stormy atm, will keep an eye on developments over the coming days.

[knocker]

The forecast soundings are a different kettle of fish Coast. I'm not even sure how they are produced apart from the fact they must be based on the forecast air masses. It may be they have just stopped the Nottingham ascent but I'm not sure why apart from the financial angle as it was operated remotely from either Camborne or Lerwick that are the only two manned radiosonde stations left in the UK, There used to be eight but satellite technology put paid to that. Plus eight manned stations was a very expensive operation when you consider at that time four soundings were done daily.