Atlantic Storms - January 2012

[johnholmes]

The forecast soundings are a different kettle of fish Coast. I'm not even sure how they are produced apart from the fact they must be based on the forecast air masses. It may be they have just stopped the Nottingham ascent but I'm not sure why apart from the financial angle as it was operated remotely from either Camborne or Lerwick that are the only two manned radiosonde stations left in the UK, There used to be eight but satellite technology put paid to that. Plus eight manned stations was a very expensive operation when you consider at that time four soundings were done daily.

ta for that info Fred

I had not realised what the situation was these days. It may be that Watnall will return once the holiday period is over? I hope so.

Edited December 29, 2011 by johnholmes

[knocker]

ta for that info Fred

I had not realised what the situation was these days. It may be that Watnall will return once the holiday period is over? I hope so.

I'm not sure why the holiday period is relevant John if, as I say, it's run remotely from Camborne that is manned 24/7. It's possible it may be something to do with the Vaisala ground station. It's an impressive piece of kit but if it gets jammed, and it does, then someone has to physically free it. They aren't too clever in high winds either as the balloon pops out of the top of the chamber and is obviously blown sideways that often bursts it or damages the radiosonde. When we tested it at Camborne anything over 40kts was dodgy.

[johnholmes]

I'm not sure why the holiday period is relevant John if, as I say, it's run remotely from Camborne that is manned 24/7. It's possible it may be something to do with the Vaisala ground station. It's an impressive piece of kit but if it gets jammed, and it does, then someone has to physically free it. They aren't too clever in high winds either as the balloon pops out of the top of the chamber and is obviously blown sideways that often bursts it or damages the radiosonde. When we tested it at Camborne anything over 40kts was dodgy.

the comment about it may have developed a fault and needs some attention may explain why its not reporting at the moment.

Again many years ago the technical centre for much of England was at Watnall so presumably that has been one of the cut backs to relocate somewhere else?

[knocker]

the comment about it may have developed a fault and needs some attention may explain why its not reporting at the moment.

Again many years ago the technical centre for much of England was at Watnall so presumably that has been one of the cut backs to relocate somewhere else?

Before I retired I've an idea the tech. centre was at Upavon but that's probably out of date now.

If there is a fault it's normally dealt with by the Vaisala engineer that could take some time. On the other hand I have a feeling they may have stopped doing them. I could ring Camborne and ask but can't remember the phone number!!

[knocker]

Problem solved. Ascents at Nottingham are done on request from Exeter remotely by Lerwick.

[Liam J]

That was a shock and a half, very intense and squally conditions just passed through here, 60-68mph gusts accompanied by torrential rain and hail, bits were flying off the trees and next doors roof has a shattered roof tile. People driving were pulling over and stopping.

Edited December 29, 2011 by Liam J

[The PIT]

getting breezy again round here again winds gusting up to 48 mph

[weatherobsuk]

Winds hit 61mph here just past 1pm. A good job the council finally got round to emptying the bins when they did this morning, conditions outside are horrendous and no lie. violent gusts that come out of nowhere with consistent drizzle mixed in.

[Terminal Moraine]

Highest gust so far here has been 59 mph around 1330. Frequent showers this morning though none of them really heavy.

[weatherobsuk]

Buxton recorded a Peak Gust of 72mph at 2.45pm. This I can believe as looking in the direction of the town from here (southwards) there was a convective cell at the time which darkened the skyline significantly.

[jpwild]

Massive hail shower now in Disley. Intense wind too.

Edit

Could be rain, byut droplets look huge.

Edited December 29, 2011 by jpwild

[Polar Maritime]

It's been a very stormy day here with severe gusts & heavy persistant rain. Which is more than wellcome after the 4th Dryest year in this catchment area since records began.

Im very surprised there's not been more discusion about this event.

A max gust of 67mph.

[johnholmes]

I'm not sure why the holiday period is relevant John if, as I say, it's run remotely from Camborne that is manned 24/7. It's possible it may be something to do with the Vaisala ground station. It's an impressive piece of kit but if it gets jammed, and it does, then someone has to physically free it. They aren't too clever in high winds either as the balloon pops out of the top of the chamber and is obviously blown sideways that often bursts it or damages the radiosonde. When we tested it at Camborne anything over 40kts was dodgy.

Watnall 12z available

suggests tops to 12,000ft or so, hence the heavy showers peppering the Peak area

Edited December 29, 2011 by johnholmes

[Matty M]

Looks like we have another storm gearing up for the 3rd January!

And i am going to call it now, that this one is gonna be the storm for my area.

Can see this tracking more south than the last few systems as a result of the strong mature low that it heads into.

[The PIT]

Yes Matty M just mentioned this one on model disccusion thread. Totally missed there becuase everyones either arguing over cold or lack off or hanging themselves over another GFS run that doesn't show cold. Needs to be watched this one if it comes off it as it will cause problems on the roads etc.

[Liam J]

As has already been highlighted we have potential for yet another intense depression crossing Northern UK around the 3rd of January, not good news for those returning to work after the festive break.

Just out of the reliable atm but both the 12z GFS and UKMO are progging a deep low pressure centred over N Britain, UKMO has it further than the GFS. Certainly one to watch over the coming days, if we were to see this varifying as per the GFS 12z it would cause big problems over wide areas of the country with scope for gusts of 70-80mph+, the current UKMO would limit the impact to Northern Britain.

Edited December 29, 2011 by Liam J

[Matty M]

Yes Matty M just mentioned this one on model disccusion thread. Totally missed there becuase everyones either arguing over cold or lack off or hanging themselves over another GFS run that doesn't show cold. Needs to be watched this one if it comes off it as it will cause problems on the roads etc.

Yes, 925hpa winds are interesting as they show the possibility of widespread gusts to 70mph, could even reach 85/90mph (75KT) in exposed places. And it is the widespread nature of the gales that is interesting and noteworthy.

[knocker]

Watnall 12z available

suggests tops to 12,000ft or so, hence the heavy showers peppering the Peak area

Not sure if you saw my earlier post John but they do them on request from Exeter. Or rather lerwick do it remotely.

[johnholmes]

Not sure if you saw my earlier post John but they do them on request from Exeter. Or rather lerwick do it remotely.

ah did not notice that-thanks Fred

aint that clever-must try and get near the place when it all starts up remotely!

[lorenzo]

I know this on the extreme side of the available runs, but just look at some of the Perturbations showing on the GEFS run..

p4 > Dartboard

p11> Another Dartboard

p14 > Hello PV !

p20 > similar to 4,11

What a start to 2012 !

[Liam J]

The infamous GFS hurricanes! Seriously... they are mega charts, 930mb central pressure wow!

Not way beyond the realms of the reliable time frame @ 5 days out, nothing set in stone at this range but still rather concerning looking at the possible outcomes.

Interesting model watching over the weekend that's for sure, I think we'll have to wait until Sunday before we can be confident with the track & intensity and indeed if it actually comes off.

Edited December 29, 2011 by Liam J

[Terminal Moraine]

It's been a very stormy day here with severe gusts & heavy persistant rain. Which is more than wellcome after the 4th Dryest year in this catchment area since records began.

Im very surprised there's not been more discusion about this event.

A max gust of 67mph.

Yes, I'll second that. 14.6 mm of rain since 0900, the bulk of it due to some heavy and squally showers of rain, sleet and hail this afternoon. A maximum gust of 70 mph at 1617 although the mean speed never reached gale force for more than a few minutes so not qualifying as a ' gale day'.

[on the coast]

This could be a Severe Storm for the mainland. Interesting to see how far South this may get. Have never known a Winter so windy. Today the fence has had enough and blown across the road. Very strong winds here today.

[Matty M]

ECM may not look all that much, but a better look and you can see its wind forecast goes off the charts for 850hpa, which you i usually reduce by around 30% for land-gust ratio.

It goes off the chart so it goes to 40 m/s +.

So we can say in that area they are forecasting 850hpa winds from 80 Knots +, more likely 80-95 knots.

So land gusts inland UK to 60 knots or higher, inland wind gusts to 70/75mph will result in some damage.

[Lancashire Lass]

Bit of interest for us on Tuesday regarding the LP system potentially tracking over Northern UK. Something for us to keep an eye on and give us something to discuss especially as things have been so quiet lately.