Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well one things for sure if there is any background noises of optmism gfs is having absolutely none of it whatsoever.

Flat,zonal horrible are words thing spring to mind!!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Well another high to the south dominated run from the GFS, I really can't understand how the ECM is so different to the GFS at the moment. What are the chances this run from the GFS is another outlier liker the previous two as it enters its low resolution part.

[ukpaul]

The Met Office are a lagging indicator, they will only change when they are sure, as for the 12z GFS (I know, I know but it does so many runs it hogs the conversation) it's interesting that it picks up some of the signs that other models are but then it goes back to its default in the low resolution as soon as it can, no wonder the NOAA is putting litle faith in it.

[Cloud 10]

Well one things for sure if there is any background noises of optmism gfs is having absolutely none of it whatsoever.

Flat,zonal horrible are words thing spring to mind!!

Yes,the gfs is becoming "the nightmare after christmas" model.

I can see Nick Sussex's laptop being thrown out the window if it doesn't get its act together. :lol:

Hopefully the ecm will come along later and poke "uncle barty" in the eye!

[Robbie Garrett]

It's nice, but odd GFS does not support it.

[karyo]

^{Everybody is talking about how bad the} gfs ^{is but the} UKMO ^{doesn't look good either! High pressure to the south and an average to mild Atlantic flow.}

^Karyo

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

^{Everybody is talking about how bad the} gfs ^{is but the} UKMO ^{doesn't look good either! High pressure to the south and an average to mild Atlantic flow.}

^Karyo

ukmo looks woeful to K.

I suggest a retreat to the memory lane regional threads to cheer you up!!

[johnholmes]

The Met Office are playing it safe, however they are probably close to the mark as there is little sign of change.

. The next 48 hours should answer our questions, so until then we can only align to one of the models and wait...

the first item is pretty obvious to anyone who looks at anything other than the 6 hourly GFS output!

The next quote - I wish I had a tenner for the number of times similar quotes come up on this thread over each winter!

Look at the telecoonections, from top to bottom, including my favourite over a 7-15 day period, 500mb anomaly charts.

Why would the next 48 hours answer your questions any more than most links show you now?

Mobile westerly, sometimes south of and sometimes north of west for at least 7-14 days is what all the indicators suggest.

For further out then, forget GFS, but do read what chio, GP and others post in the technical thread.

Edited December 27, 2011 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

The Gfs is at least being consistant with it's average to mild zonal pattern which the met office seem to favour, at least for the time being. It will probably be after mid jan before some reliably cold charts begin to appear but I hope it's sooner although the 500 mb anomaly charts are not changing atm.

Edited December 27, 2011 by Polar_ Low

[kev238]

Completely agree with JH... The broad pattern of westerly winds is clearly set for next two weeks at least. And the met office obviously have no clear signs of any huge change mid January due to the very average updates they are issuing for mid January onwards. The idea they they lag behind is daft!

The one consistent thing this winter has been the absolute lack of interesting charts on view offering cold solutions, or cold updates from the Met. We have not even seen good northerly blasts modelled... Everything looks very average... We are due a mild boring winter after the past three.. Maybe this will be the winter that occurs

Edited December 27, 2011 by kev238

[nick sussex]

This place is certainly much more entertaining when the outputs look uninspiring!

So far we have the GFS 12hrs run whose earlier outputs were slated by NOAA together with its ensembles which were basically binned because they were all too flat upstream within 120hrs and now the UKMO which seems to have met up with the GFS to discuss how to drive this thread crazy.

The UKMO looks a complete mess upstream within 96hrs so let's just wait and see what the ECM does.

[Tim Bland]

A quick look at the GFS Ensembles tells me GFS is struggling at the moment. By T+240 hrs it's spread is between -8 and +12 850hpa temps for London!

Edited December 27, 2011 by Tim Bland

[SP1986]

The UKMO to me looks very plausible, it's not a silly pattern - it's a pattern that has occurred before, but I'm not sure if this is what you mean by a mess Nick (please clarify)?

[karyo]

This place is certainly much more entertaining when the outputs look uninspiring!

So far we have the GFS 12hrs run whose earlier outputs were slated by NOAA together with its ensembles which were basically binned because they were all too flat upstream within 120hrs and now the UKMO which seems to have met up with the GFS to discuss how to drive this thread crazy.

The UKMO looks a complete mess upstream within 96hrs so let's just wait and see what the ECM does.

To me, both gfs and UKMO look in agreement so I wouldn't say the UKMO is a mess.

Karyo

[Uncle_Barty]

A quick look at the GFS Ensembles tells me GFS is struggling at the moment. By T+240 hrs it's spread is between -8 and +12 850hpa temps for London!

That is perfectly normal! t+240 isn't known as FI for nothing.....

[nick sussex]

The UKMO to me looks very plausible, it's not a silly pattern - it's a pattern that has occurred before, but I'm not sure if this is what you mean by a mess Nick (please clarify)?

The pattern is expected to amplify upstream with a digging trough over the US plains, the UKMO goes shortwave crazy at 96hrs.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=96&carte=1021

If its wrong at 96hrs the rest of its output will not verify, it should be a slowish progression of troughing in response to the upstream amplification.

We await the ECM verdict!

To me, both gfs and UKMO look in agreement so I wouldn't say the UKMO is a mess.

Karyo

Check upstream at 96hrs, even the GFS makes more sense further on with its digging trough before it hits the buffers in the lower resolution output.

[phil nw.]

The pattern is expected to amplify upstream with a digging trough over the US plains, the UKMO goes shortwave crazy at 96hrs.

http://www.meteociel...h=96&carte=1021

If its wrong at 96hrs the rest of its output will not verify, it should be a slowish progression of troughing in response to the upstream amplification.

We await the ECM verdict!

Check upstream at 96hrs, even the GFS makes more sense further on with its digging trough before it hits the buffers in the lower resolution output.

Actually Nick they both amplify a ridge quite well at T144 over the States but as you run through the GFS it flattens things out again.

If the ECM keeps things more meridonal then it would confuse things even more--although we would likely get a colder run--well see soon enough.

[Nick F]

The UKMO to me looks very plausible, it's not a silly pattern - it's a pattern that has occurred before, but I'm not sure if this is what you mean by a mess Nick (please clarify)?

I guess if it doesn't show what you want it to show, then it's a mess!

What I can see the models perhaps agreeing on today, is the whole of UK finally ending up on the colder north side of the Polar Front Jet by early next week but thereafter there is uncertainty to whether we stay in a cool/cold zonal flow, like this morning's ECM, or the PFJ drifts north again as shown by 12z GFS - with milder air returning.

One thing's for sure, it looks like staying zonal for the forseeable (be it mild or cold zonal), with no strong signs of a major disruption to this pattern emerging yet.

[phil nw.]

I guess if it doesn't show what you want it to show, then it's a mess!

What I can see the models perhaps agreeing on today, is the whole of UK finally ending up on the colder north side of the Polar Front Jet by early next week but thereafter there is uncertainty to whether we stay in a cool/cold zonal flow, like this morning's ECM, or the PFJ drifts north again as shown by 12z GFS - with milder air returning.

One thing's for sure, it looks like staying zonal for the forseeable (be it mild or cold zonal), with no strong signs of a major disruption to this pattern emerging yet.

I have to agree with this general view.I think there will be variations in the angle of the jet-with a chance towards week 2 it may angle more favourably for cold.

The GEfs ens graph keeps things pretty average throughout,although the Op is on the milder side-it really doesn`t affect the overall picture.

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

There is still too much energy spilling off the vortex at present and coupled with persistent high pressure to our south this minimises any cold shots.

Bear in mind i am thinking within 10 days,what happens later is anyones guess.

Edited December 27, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[kev238]

One reason for a big spread on the ensembles could be simply due to being in different cycles of a zonal flow.. Either in the middle of a warm sector or post cold front. It does not always mean a modelmis struggling!

[January Snowstorm]

ECM backs the gfs, the zonal train continues.

Pretty abysmal charts right now, pbly the worst for the last 3 Winters

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I have to agree with this general view.I think there will be variations in the angle of the jet-with a chance towards week 2 it may angle more favourably for cold.

The GEfs ens graph keeps things pretty average throughout,although the Op is on the milder side-it really doesn`t affect the overall picture.

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

There is still too much energy spilling off the vortex at present and coupled with persistent high pressure to our south this minimises any cold shots.

Bear in mind i am thinking within 10 days,what happens later is anyones guess.

Thing is phil this tedious setup is seriously starting to eat away at winter now.

After a pretty snowless and frostless Dec jan looks primed for a rinse and repeat.

ecm is also a nightmare after christmas run this evening and i agree with you about that vortex,its killing any hopes of cold.

[lorenzo]

One thing's for sure, it looks like staying zonal for the forseeable (be it mild or cold zonal), with no strong signs of a major disruption to this pattern emerging yet.

We are going to need a kick from an MJO wave or another heat wave in the stratosphere to help that PV shift, until then patience is required. Other than the odd perturbation here and there the pattern is locked. The last bulletin on Boxing Day indicated that there were tentative signs of the MJO becoming more organised.

[ICETAB]

ECM backs the gfs, the zonal train continues.

Pretty abysmal charts right now, pbly the worst for the last 3 Winters

It's only out to T168! Are you looking at the northern hemisphere charts?

[Matty M]

Looks like a frigid for the Eastern US on the ECM, all the way down to Florida